KeyHouseRaces - The Latest Polls & 106 Seats in Play

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 27 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time.

So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones.

Here are the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week including those from The Hill that were just released. 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied. There are 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category. And worth noting is the fact that many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.

Particularly worth noting: GA-08, TX-17, SC-05, FL-02 and NY-20.

[Moose4]

I’ll be interested to see what happens in the North Carolina 4th. The execrable mega-liberal David Price is in the brawl of his life with B.J. Lawson...since it’s not on these lists, I assume that outside polls are showing it as a safe retention for Price even though Lawson’s polling shows him right there.

Price will not be able to ride the racial Obama wave here in heavily-black Durham this year (68-28 Obama in 2008), and I expect his smelly hippie base over in Chapel Hell and Carrboro aren’t exactly motivated right now. I don’t think he’ll lose, there’s just too much of a combination of college liberals and black racist Democrats to overcome. But if there is any year that the Rats could finally lose their chokehold on this district, this is it.

}:-)4

[p. henry]

I compared this list to the list of races to which the Democrats' National Congressional Campaign Committee is committing last minute funds (as published in National Review). There are 19 races on this list for seats currently held by Democrats, and which are shown as leaning Republican or at worst a tossup, to which their national committee is not committing funds. They are: Arkansas 2, California 47 (Tran-Sanchez), Colorado 4, Florida 8, Florida 24, Illinois 11, Indiana 8, Kansas 3, Louisiana 3, New Hampshire 1, New Mexico 2, New York 29, Ohio 1, Ohio 15, Pennsylvania 3, Tennessee 8, Washington 8, and Wisconsin 8.

Either the Dems have given up on these races or the Dem candidates there have adequate funds. I suspect that the former is true. So, the way I see it, with these 19 races, we are half the way there.

[LeonardFMason]

Joe Biden expects Democrat gains in House and Senate.
Joe Biden expects parapalegic to stand.
Joe Biden....as a VP makes AlGore look like Albert Einstein.

[Fishtalk]

Thanks for your response. I trust you know I did my best.

First, as to the sudden disappearance of the Dems...maybe you got something. Like you said, Coons is inspiring nobody, a big zero, totally non-charismatic blotto burger. Whereas COD has a bright smile and people are naturally drawn to her. The comparison between the two is just so obvious.

As for John Carney, serious...I have YET to see the man, either in any public event, or even in a TV ad. They have some, but there's no Carney in them. Another nothing burger whereas Glen Urquhart is just the nicest fellow, very personable.

This is not to say that COD or Urquhart are hiding out in any form or fashion.

It's just odd.

And so before my nap, a look at my political album, you should smile

Below, in 2005, ME, granddaughter....and Christine O'Donnell! Yes I can say I knew her when...

Below, COD with grandaughter from this past August.

Below, just for grins, granddaughter and Glen Urquhart! Yes that's former VA Senator Allen holding granddaughter

Finally, for giggles and grins...ME....with Mike Castle! Well hell no I'm not proud of it but once upon a time I really tried. The man kept slapping me in the face so now he's outta there.!

[Fishtalk]

Sorry....as for the DuPont endorsement, it sure won’t hurt.

I think the DuPont endorsement helps soothe angry Del GOP voters as much as anything.

The fine, fine Mike Castle STILL has not endorsed COD, this after all the years we supported him as he constantly slapped us in the face.

[Fishtalk]

Actually I’m not sure we do disagree.

I said I thought the races lean Democrat so hey,maybe we’re talking by degree. I do NOT think it will be a rout but if you held a gun to my head, I’d say most likely the Dems will pick up both Del seats....more’s the pity. Still, seriously, Castle is gone and that means so much.

As for Bonini....that Flowers fellow is in heap big trouble I hear, something about beating women.

And you’re right, the Del GOP finally collapsed.

[mwl8787]

Every congressional race in Indiana and Kentucky is important because they report early, thus affecting some votes on the west coast. We are targeting the open seat (Ellsworth), Baron Hill and Joe Donnelly... did I miss anything in Indiana?

[BillyBoy]

Good news from Illinois. Bod Dold in the 10th District has an excellent new ad running called “Seals for Dold” Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuGIcLWOxUA&feature=player_embedded

Finally some creativity from the Dold camp instead of the Mark Kirk-lite message. “Seals for Dold”, love the play on words and it hammers home the point about what kind of person Dan Seals really is.

Glad to see the Dold campaign is waking up and finding new ways to reach out to 10th District voters in the final week. Hope he can pull this off and step out of Kirk’s shadow to be his own man.

[padre35]

Wow..106 races in play!

I’d thought it would be closer to 80 races, the one disadvantage we have is the Dhimmis have put their cash to work and that has kept some races in the “D” column that otherwise would not be there.

[GailA]

Bergmann Challenges Cohen in Ninth District (TN)(Arrogant Dem Refuses To Debate Black Conservative)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2615358/posts

[excopconservative]

Wow..106 races in play!

---

I think many more than 106 are in play. We have some CA districts that have not been polled and where we have great candidates. Some of these are CA-51 Nick Popaditch vs. Bob Filner, CA-37 Star Parker vs Laura Richardson, CA-29 John Colbert vs. Adam Schiff. Popaditch creamed Filner in a recent debate and has lots of support on the ground. Star Parker has good backing and name recognition. John Colbert is a great candidate against a major health care bill supporter. Schiff faced angry crowds at his town hall meeting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see these seats and possibly others in play. CA had poor statewide candidates that have not attracted major tea party support. That meant that all the tea party energy has gone into the House races.

[Hush44]

Thank you for the continuing updates!

I hope you do a thread showing all the winners (main list
and tier2) .... maybe start a thread election night.

I think your effort has helped keep people energized & hopeful.

Our campaign staff has posted links to your KHR site on their main site & their facebook..recognizing the grassroots efforts, and your one-stop-shopping for info.

NY20 is pushing hard to turn this district back to RED; you know the dems are nervous for their pelosibluelapdog dem murphy...cuz they’re sending Bubba up here to GOTV

Great job to the team at our very own FReepers @ KHR!

~Kate

[InterceptPoint]

We will be running an election night thread. And doing a post-election summary/analysis will be just too much fun to pass up.

[mlo]

You’ve got CA-20 as Leans D. You might want to check:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2614636/posts

[the crow]

bump for later. thanks for the post!

[Springfield Reformer]

Funny & clever. I like it.

[Impy]

All I’ve been seeing on TV is Seal’s ad attacking the Pro-Choice Dold because pro-lifers (”extremists”) support him.

One recent poll has Dold up.

The rest have Seals up, Seals is such a douche I have trouble believing it.

[InterceptPoint]

We’re aware of the CA-20 poll but our rating system relies on our six “Experts” reading that poll and revising their opinion of the race. I expect they will do that before Tuesday. Stay tuned. This race is certainly not a Leans D.

[onona]

At least my old home NY23 is now a toss up. I’m still not over in how a district that’s been GOP since the Civil Freaking War, in a WTF moment goes RAT.

Fingers crossed and hoping sensibility(sp?) returns.

[neocon1984]

3. Not a lot of people

4. Good old Midwestern/Scandinavian work ethic