KeyHouseRaces - The Latest Polls & 106 Seats in Play

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 27 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

At KeyHouseRaces we have been logging the lastest polls for the House races in play since early September. Although we initialy posted both Dem and GOP internal polls we gave that idea up when we started to recognize that, in general, these polls were highly skewed in favor of the party doing the polling. The Nate Silver estimate for that skewing is about 6 points. That would put Dem and GOP polls 12 points apart when polling the same district. Posting these is clearly a waste of time.

So we don't post internal polls anymore, even the friendly ones.

Here are the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week including those from The Hill that were just released. 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied. There are 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category. And worth noting is the fact that many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.

Particularly worth noting: GA-08, TX-17, SC-05, FL-02 and NY-20.

[Hush44]

Dems Make Last Ditch Effort For House

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2615563/posts

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/dems-make-last.php

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is making a last ditch effort to survive a GOP wave by blanketing the airwaves in more than 60 districts in the final week of the campaign.

According to FEC filings late Tuesday, the DCCC purchased $21.6 million worth of air time in 66 districts.

>>
check out the hotline link..for a complete list.

I am sure these will be nice ads, touting the Dems, not those nasty ads criticizing their Rep opponents /s

They are dumping $220k in my NY20,, plus sending bubba up

>>>Gibson ping

[wardaddy]

wish I could do more but 5 kids and 2 in college

[Political Junkie Too]

any way of goign back to get his predictions the last week before 1994, and see which races he called toss-up back then, and how they turned out?

You can use the Wayback Machine to see Cook's website content going back to 2000. Not all embedded links are guaranteed to work. Here is the Cook Political Report wayback link.

-PJ

[Political Junkie Too]

Using these polls and last Saturday's expert assessments, the GOP gain goes up by one to 50. The P10 Gain is 46; the P90 Gain is 55.

-PJ

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks InterceptPoint.

...the 46 polls that we've collected in the last week... 28 of these show a GOP lead, 14 show a Dem lead and 4 are tied... 9 GOP polls where the candidate is over the 50% mark. The Dems have 2 in that category... many of the Dem leads show the GOP candidate closing the race.

[Fresh Wind]

Patrick Murphy (PA-8) has a problem. A vote fraud scandal is breaking out involving his campaign manager. Murphy is going down hard!

[randita]

It’s a district that kept electing Kirk, so are you really surprised?

[Fu-fu2]

Thanks for the ping. Dems are spending alot of money on candidates in IL8, 10 and 14. Glad to see the races are so close. Went to a rally tonight, got to hear the soon-to-be Rep. Adam Kinzinger from IL-11. He’ll make the people of the district proud!