Posted on 03/18/2011 4:53:11 PM PDT by WatchYourself
This article is the first in a series examining Sarah Palin’s electability, and why the Republican, Liberal, and Media Elites are using bias over analysis.
As we consider the electability of candidates, namely Sarah Palin, we first must consider the candidates floors. A “floor” is a candidate’s guaranteed minimum percentage based on current polling data, accounting for all factors. Obama’s floor, or guaranteed vote, according to analysis of current polling is 43%. What this means is that 43% of people will vote for Barack Obama no matter who his opponent is. It could be much higher, but probably not any lower. This number is arrived at by reviewing 6 months of polling date from all polling firms. This is Obama’s floor because, depending on his opponent, his support grows or shrinks, but rarely below 43%.
Sarah Palin’s current floor is determined to be 39% as she typically registers 39% or 40% in head-to-head match-ups against Obama (not counting 3-way race polling). So today, the floor stands at Obama 43% and Palin 39%, or Obama +4. Yes, I know what the skeptics/elites would say to this: “But Obama always scores much higher than 43% against Palin, duh!” That is true, but the point of determining a floor is to understand a candidate’s solid support. Elites prefer to go light on analysis and heavy on drama. If a poll shows Obama scoring 53% against one candidate and 42% against another, his support is quite volatile, and can be changed as information is acquired.
What does this all mean? For one, it is good news for Sarah Palin. Figure that almost all media coverage of Palin for the previous 2 years has been incredibly negative, accusatory, insulting, misleading, and “downright mean”, to quote Michelle Obama. It’s amazing to read something Palin writes or says and see how it is maliciously twisted into a salacious sound bite. Unfortunately most people at this stage know the sound bite, but not what she actually says. Meanwhile, despite being generally inept, but receiving glorious and glowing coverage from the media, Obama’s floor is at a mere 43%. This means that all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread.
When we toss in candidate favorable/unfavorable opinion we find a very interesting fact. Let’s not pretend that Palin’s current favorables are high. In reality, they shouldn’t be. We have to remember that 80% of the population’s opinion of Palin is currently formed by the media’s representation of her. Or, misrepresentation if you prefer, and I do. But Sarah Palin heavily outperforms her favorability rating, in many cases by 2-1 margins. Meanwhile Obama underperforms his favorable rating, usually by 10-15 percentage points. So far more people will vote for Sarah Palin even with a negative opinion of her while far fewer people with a positive opinion of Obama will vote for him. This only works in Palin’s favor as she is able to make the case for herself and opinions of her arise. If a large percentage of people will vote for her when they do not like her, what happens when the percentage of people who do like her increases dramatically, as will inevitably be the case. So, how does Palin raise her floor? The good news is: things couldn’t get worse for Palin. The majority of current opinion about Palin is formed not on thoughtful consideration of her, but on minimally whimsical knowledge bandied about by frivolous “media” and entertainment personalities. Most voters, sadly, know more about Charlie Sheen and American Idol than they do about Sarah Palin or Barack Obama. Their opinion of her is that she is a ditzy beauty queen who is obviously controversial and not electable, and very, very right wing. After all, we just got our news from Saturday Night Live, Politico, or The Daily Show, so it must be true.
But what happens when 100 Million people tune into a debate between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin? What happens when she speaks freely and convincingly in that debate, as she did in a great interview with the Long Island Association? And then what happens when people realize that she isn’t the moron “they” have attempted to portray her as? That she can speak without uhhh’s and ummm’s like someone else cannot? And when Palin releases, yes I will say it, Reaganesque commercials that are inspiring and uplifting, you know about America being that shining city on a something or another? How quickly will opinion change when people realize that Sarah Palin is not what the media have portrayed her as?
And about those “controversial” opinions she holds? What happens when Americans realize that it is those “controversial” opinions that the majority of Americans agree with, often by wide margins. Well, that is a matter for Part 2 of Elite’s Way Off on Palin Electability.
Good article, well worth thinking about by those who say Palin can’t win.
I wonder if pissant is lurking, reading it, and gnashing his teeth that he can’t dis it... at least not under the name pissant.
Sarah ping!
Although the ‘what-if’s’ are necessary at this stage - 20 months prior to the 2012 presidential election - I find this a cogent analysis that is more realistic than most and factors in elements that most Palin pieces, even those with a positive spin, usually ignore. Refreshing.
Thanks for the post, it is what I believe as well but the long knives are yet to be drawn. It’s elites vs common sense conservatives, we better win one for the “gipper”!
Wonderful days!
NOTE to Local Talk Radio: There ain't none...
Good write up but you left a major element out. The poll numbers that show “others” doing better in the polls. Like Mitt or Huck. Their poll numbers and favs unlike Obama or Palin’s are based on 2 years of “good” press do not represent their “floor” Once the negative attacks start on Mitt or huck thier negatives will rise, their poll numbers will sink and thier floor will be found. My bet is that floor is below 39%
real conservatives will not turn out for those clowns....
You can bet your booty that he went and bought his-self a new laptop so he can re-register here. Count on it; he lives for this shit.
"... all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread. "
What got Pissant zotted? One too many Palin threads or a rant on something else?
i before e except after c-——LOL!
Like it. Make that love it.
I didn’t know pissant was zotted. Oh, well.
I voted for her once in 08 and I’ll do it AGAIN-!!
Agree.
“... all the positive coverage on the world for Obama and all the negative coverage in the world for Palin results only in a 4 point spread. “
Interesting analysis. Looking forward to part 2.
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