Posted on 09/09/2011 7:10:13 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican
Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.
Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.
Discontent with Washington and the president is at the heart of Turner's shocking upset bid. In a district he won by 11 points just three years ago, Obama's favorability rating is now upside down in the Siena poll, with 54 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Obama and only 43 percent viewing him favorably. A remarkable 38 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of independents hold an unfavorable view of the president.
The Republican also has all the momentum: A Siena poll conducted four weeks ago showed Weprin with a six-point advantage. Turner's lead does fall barely within the margin of error, but the poll shows that the GOP is on the verge of a most unlikely victory in the Outer Boroughs-based district, where Democrats hold a three-to-one advantage on the voter rolls.
But the Democratic registration advantage is tempered by the poll's crosstabs. Turner runs much stronger among Republicans, holding 90 percent of the vote, than Weprin does among Democrats, taking just 63 percent. Independents are overwhelmingly lined up behind the Republican, with 65 percent of them supporting Turner and 27 percent choosing Weprin.
Turner's own internal polling last week had shown a tie, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee touted a poll showing Weprin with an 8-point lead. But clearly the DCCC has seen that tenuous sign of hope evaporate too, going up yesterday with a half-million-dollar ad-buy slamming Turner in the closing days of the race.
All of the late money may not have much of an impact, however. According to the Siena poll, 79 percent of likely voters say there is no chance they will change their mind, and 17 percent say they are unlikely to change their mind, leaving just 5 percent who say they are "not very certain" or "not certain at all" in their vote.
Voters have a more positive view of Turner than they do of Weprin. Turner's favorable/unfavorable ratings are in the black (48 percent favorable/34 percent unfavorable), while voters are split evenly on Weprin (41 percent favorable/41 percent unfavorable).
Voters believe Turner is running the more positive campaign, leading Weprin on that question, 43 percent to 32 percent. Correspondingly, a plurality of likely voters believe Weprin's campaign is more negative.
Likely voters in the district are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with 74 percent saying the country is headed in the wrong direction; Turner wins a striking 94 percent of those voters. Mood toward the direction of New York is much rosier, though -- a 47-percent plurality say the Empire State is on the right track.
The economy remains voters' top concern, with 32 percent listing it as the most important factor in making their decision, including nearly half of Turner's supporters. But there is a possible beacon for Weprin: Medicare and Social Security isn't far behind at just 28 percent, and that's been the focus of late, with Democrats falling back to their successful strategy that helped win them a GOP seat in the western New York's 26th District this May.
Nearly half of Weprin's supporters say the candidates' positions on entitlements is driving their vote. But the poll shows that strategy has its limitations: Turner actually has a four-point lead among voters aged 55 and older, 49 percent to 45 percent.
The historical Democratic dominance in the district is evident in one area, however: By a 49-to-38 percent margin, likely voters think Weprin is most likely to win the election, including 23 percent of Turner's supporters.
The Siena poll was conducted Sept. 6-8 and surveyed 886 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percent.
Those are Hassidic neighborhoods. Less-conspicuous Orthodox Jews of other persuasions are indeed abundantly represented in CD9. Weprin, for example, is said to be Modern Orthodox and wears a kippah.
The Brooklyn part of the district actually voted for McCain!
Michael Barone described Schauer as “the Flying Dutchman of New York politics.” He would move to run in a new district practically every decade, and represented districts based in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn through the years.
Ferraro’s CD went a bit further south than NW Queens (Astoria et al), didn’t it? The great Serphin Maltese almost won the CD when she vacated it in 1984, and he later served as a state senator in a district that included quite a bit of the Queens portion of the current NY-09.
The woman whose husband was shot on the subway (the black gunman waited until the train crossed into Nassau County so that it wouldn’t count as a murder in David Dinkins’s NYC) is Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy, but she was first elected in the NY-04 (Western Nassau, including Garden Grove and Hempstead villages) in 1998, defeating a first-year Republican whose name eludes me. LeBoutillier was a freshman when he lost his reelection bid to Congressman Mzarek (sp?) in 1982 (he had won in the NY-06 in 1980, but ran in the NY-03 in 1982 (which I believe included a lot more of Nassau than his 1980 CD took in).
¿Uh...what are you saying?
¡Help!
yes..only a CP guy...the site I researched the percentages did not clarify
the GOP guy got 40% last time
Well it was mostly the westernmost part when first elected in ‘78 (the 8th (Ben Rosenthal) and 10th (Mario Biaggi) also took slivers of that area, but more central and northern of it), but for her 3rd and last term, it was mostly just the entirety of the NW part of Queens. I had to look at the large atlas and don’t have a smaller-scale pic (Barone’s Almanac also doesn’t have a map of the NYC district lines at that time for some odd reason).
But...but...the MSM told me that America was just as mad at Republicans as Democrats. They assured me that Congress’s 11 percent approval rating was directed at Republicans.
It is by no means “majority” Romanist, even if we include the Hispanic Democrats in the sh-thole that is Ozone Park.
McCarthy beat Daniel Frisa in ‘96. I find it astonishing she is still polluting Congress 15 years later.
That was Bob Mrazek who beat LeBoutillier in 1982. He ran in fellow freshman GOPer Greg Carman’s seat when their districts were combined. Unfortunately, Carman would’ve been the better candidate and probably would’ve defeated Mrazek (although he got a better deal, a Federal Judgeship) had he chosen not to retire.
Gee whiz, if you think trying to trace the ancestry of NY districts is a pain in the ass, Massachusetts is even worse (well, maybe not).
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well done, Fieldmarshal! :)
Now, can you please settle this little uncertainty: Did Geraldine Ferraro's Ninth District, either as laid out in 1978 and 1980, or as it was in 1982, ever contain any territory that's in the current NY-9? (If so, my guess is that the overlap would be minuscule.)
BTW, you mentioned some names there that I was aware of and some that I wasn't. FWIW, I once had an opportunity to meet with the late GOP congressman Francis Dorn's son, and knew that Dorn was a Brooklyn GOP congressman during the Eisenhower presidency. I also knew of Sy Halprin as a Republican from Queens who was in Congress for quite a long time.
Your history also demonstrates that, contrary to my previous thinking, congressional redistricting didn't necessarily occur on the heels of every federal census prior to 1960. What made redistricting mandatory after every census since was the SCOTUS' "one man, one vote" ruling in the very early 1960s.
Of course, in accordance with your history, there were also many other redistrictings in New York (and likely many other states) that were precipitated by other causes. That undoubtedly is an interesting subject in and of itself.
It should be in your local library or university (if you're near a large city), but I happen to own a copy, which isn't cheap. It's The Historical Atlas of Political Parties in the United States Congress, 1789-1989 by Prof. Kenneth C. Martis. It's a huge "coffee table" book.
"Now, can you please settle this little uncertainty: Did Geraldine Ferraro's Ninth District, either as laid out in 1978 and 1980, or as it was in 1982, ever contain any territory that's in the current NY-9? (If so, my guess is that the overlap would be minuscule.)"
Having scrutinized the Atlas (and Barone's Almanac of the time wasn't helpful because of a lack of maps for the NYC districts), it appears that if there was some overlap, it would've been indeed miniscule (of the current "T" shape extending up into central Queens, it would've only been the westernmost part of the tip-top of that "T", if even that). The 9th of the time (1970s-93) doesn't much resemble its current successor, the 7th. It has been thrust liberally into the East Bronx (whereas before, it wasn't in the Bronx in the modern era, IIRC) and the westernmost portions of the old Queens district have been attached to Maloney's 14th, Rangel's 15th and apparently even a sliver of Serrano's 16th and Velazquez's 12th. Indeed, the current 7th only basically contains the easternmost parts of Ferraro's old seat.
I believe Mondale/Ferraro failed to carry Ferraro's own CD 9 against Reagan/Bush.
That would be a nice stick in the eye.
thanks for the ping!
Absolutely correct. Reagan won the district with 57% to Mondale's 43%.
Thanks for the correction. Did McCarthy defeat a Congressman named Dan Frisa (sp.?)
There is certainly that similarity to IL-5 and Rostenkowski but at least Rostenkowski was crippled by felony indictments and/or convictions whereas Weprin is a dope and a dupe seeking to replace Anthony The Flash Weiner.
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