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A Tuesday GOP Sweep Taking Shape?
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE ^ | September 12, 2011 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 09/12/2011 3:01:31 PM PDT by neverdem

This is a survey result that will undoubtedly thrill many Republicans…

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District.  He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support.  He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party.  And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district.  Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.  It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

… but Josh Trevino notes that folks on the Right (myself included) haven’t always had such warm and fuzzy feelings about Public Policy Polling: “Today is the day we conservatives pretend we respect PPP polling, because it brings NY-9 wish fulfillment.” Having said that, we should also acknowledge that polling in special elections like this one is tougher than in a regular election because of the often much-lower turnout.

Over in the Corner, Patrick Brennan notes, “The race has been portrayed as a referendum on Obama, particularly his Israel policy and the national debt. In a heavily Jewish district, Turner has placed much of his hope for a victory on convincing likely voters that he will be a better friend to Israel than his Orthodox Jewish opponent, David Weprin, because of Obama’s cool attitude towards Israel. He has apparently succeeded, leading Weprin by a huge margin, 56 points to 39, among Jewish voters – a worrisome omen for Obama in 2012.”


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: New York
KEYWORDS: bobturner; newyork; ny9; ny9cd; turner; weprin

1 posted on 09/12/2011 3:01:35 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

I hope so, but must.not.get.cocky.


2 posted on 09/12/2011 3:04:44 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Keynesians take the stand that the best way to sober up is more booze.)
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To: neverdem

I just came back from putting a bunch of signs around the neighborhood for Turner :)


3 posted on 09/12/2011 3:05:20 PM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: cyborg; Clemenza; Cacique; NYCVirago; The Mayor; Darksheare; hellinahandcart; Chode; ...
Yo NY, enjoy first dibs.

FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.

4 posted on 09/12/2011 3:05:43 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

There will be a lot of dead people voting tomorrow.


5 posted on 09/12/2011 3:09:24 PM PDT by MistrX
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To: neverdem

Woo hoo! Monday night football and maybe some entertainment on Tuesday.


6 posted on 09/12/2011 3:10:50 PM PDT by MtnClimber (A government powerful enough to tell you what to eat can tell you when you can breathe.)
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To: neverdem

I won’t say Obama is as antisemitic as Hitler, but he’s probably right up there with most of the current Arab leaders.

The Jews in America really need to get their heads out of their collective behinds and realize that the only thing that is keeping Obama from throwing them and Israel to the wolves completely is his hope for reelection.

If he wins next time around (God forbid), it will be far worse than it is now.


7 posted on 09/12/2011 3:12:47 PM PDT by Ronin (Obamanation has replaced Bizarroworld as the most twisted place in the universe.)
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To: neverdem

does this survey take into account the votes that will be cast for the democrat in these elections that is usually defined as ballot stuffing. (see New York, California, Nevada, Washington politics as usual)


8 posted on 09/12/2011 3:12:47 PM PDT by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country!)
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


9 posted on 09/12/2011 3:14:14 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: neverdem

Just WHO are those 10% of Republicans who aren’t voting for Turner?


10 posted on 09/12/2011 3:14:22 PM PDT by ken5050 (Save the EARTH...it's the ONLY planet with CHOCOLATE!!!)
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To: neverdem

The New York’s 9th Congressional District is so heavily dimoKKKRAT I just can’t see the Republican pulling this one out. I think the dimoKKKRAT “machine” is well entrenched. I don’t think the polls can talk to the “dead” to see who they are going to vote for.


11 posted on 09/12/2011 3:20:48 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: neverdem

Well the title once again leaves out the fact that Baltimore Mayor race is being held and there is NO WAY in heck that is going Republican. In fact, I think it is their primary for Mayor. I don’t even think Republicans run for that seat anymore.


12 posted on 09/12/2011 3:24:23 PM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: neverdem

GOP Sweep? How many seats are up?


13 posted on 09/12/2011 3:25:54 PM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: neverdem

If Weprin is a seriously religious Jew, he has to know that the Democrats are now about as good for Israel as a bucket of warm unkosher spit. It’s probably a referendum on where the party is, more than the candidate. Weprin would be at best a voice calling in the Democrat wilderness. Turner would get GOP ears that are still listening.


14 posted on 09/12/2011 3:27:48 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: MistrX

No it is Morry and Irma and all the rest of the snowbirds asking for absentee ballots this weekend from their condos in Boca Pembrook Pines to cast that NY vote. You see they are still registered in NY even though their main residence these days is FLA and they love Debbie Schultz. That way they get to vote twice and screw up two places


15 posted on 09/12/2011 3:41:12 PM PDT by slapshot ("Were not gonna take it anymore" Twisted Sister)
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To: napscoordinator
GOP Sweep? How many seats are up?

The author had another piece with a similar or same title. Nevada's 2nd CD looks good for the GOP.

16 posted on 09/12/2011 3:41:27 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: MistrX

No it is Morry and Irma and all the rest of the snowbirds asking for absentee ballots this weekend from their condos in Boca Pembrook Pines to cast that NY vote. You see they are still registered in NY even though their main residence these days is FLA and they love Debbie Schultz. That way they get to vote twice and screw up two places


17 posted on 09/12/2011 3:41:27 PM PDT by slapshot ("Were not gonna take it anymore" Twisted Sister)
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To: MistrX
There will be a lot of dead people voting tomorrow.

NY doesn't have any recent history of the dead voting. The rats have usually a lopsided registration advantage. When they screw up royally we get Giulianis and Patakis.

18 posted on 09/12/2011 3:50:03 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

These reports are simply a demoralization plot. They are trying to crush conservative hope. I won’t hold my breath expecting the pubbie to win.


19 posted on 09/12/2011 3:51:02 PM PDT by Tailback
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To: neverdem

I’ll believe this when I see it. But if it does happen, I can’t wait to see the face of Ms. Wasserman-Shultz and hear her obnoxious explanation.


20 posted on 09/12/2011 4:09:48 PM PDT by pineybill
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To: BfloGuy

Ditto that.


21 posted on 09/12/2011 4:14:03 PM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead.)
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To: pineybill

I saw her on CNN. She’s the democrat version of baghdad Bob but even she didn’t sound so confident about it.


22 posted on 09/12/2011 4:17:08 PM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: Tailback
These reports are simply a demoralization plot. They are trying to crush conservative hope. I won’t hold my breath expecting the pubbie to win.

This is the 2nd poll showing Turner leadimg. National Review wants to demoralize the right?

23 posted on 09/12/2011 4:36:13 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: pineybill
I’ll believe this when I see it. But if it does happen, I can’t wait to see the face of Ms. Wasserman-Shultz and hear her obnoxious explanation.

I'll want to see Chuck U Schumer's mug. It's his old seat.

24 posted on 09/12/2011 4:41:41 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

Take nothing for granted.


25 posted on 09/12/2011 4:44:46 PM PDT by Danae (Anailnathrach ortha bhais beatha do cheal deanaimha)
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To: neverdem
The Dems are getting desperate.

Very desperate

26 posted on 09/12/2011 5:01:36 PM PDT by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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To: OddLane

Thanks for the link!


27 posted on 09/12/2011 5:11:35 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...
Wienermobile wipes out | Firefighter Nation | 2-9-2008 | George Osgood | Posted on 02/11/2008 2:59:21 PM PST by Cagey

28 posted on 09/12/2011 5:13:52 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's never a bad time to FReep this link -- https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: neverdem
No problem.

I've been meanign to devote more coverage to this race on American Rattlesnake, but have been preoccupied with some other issues, unfortunately.

29 posted on 09/12/2011 5:16:23 PM PDT by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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To: OddLane; All
Very desperate

Imagine renting a storefront for only a couple of days!

They are also inundating the NYC airwaves with ads - which is almost unheard of in this type of race because the 'Rats are usually lopsided winners. Naturally enough, their ads are playing to the same old bromides: that Turner is filthy rich and wants "tax breaks" for corporations, that he will put Social Security and Medicare in danger, and that the New York Times endorses Weprin. (I would think that the Times endorsement would hardly play to Weprin's advantage.)

30 posted on 09/12/2011 5:43:02 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: neverdem

Bttttt, The Usurping Marxist Onada said today most Americans reject Tea Party ideas. Hmmm. What to believe—what’s actually happening or The One?


31 posted on 09/12/2011 5:48:48 PM PDT by dools0007world
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To: justiceseeker93
It depends.

With some voters, definitely.

I'm not sure they're the ones Weprin is after though.

32 posted on 09/12/2011 5:49:41 PM PDT by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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To: ken5050

I would put my money on RINOs and so-called moderates.

What kind of guy is Turner anyway? Running as Pubbie in NYS is usually only a tiny baby step removed from being a demrat.


33 posted on 09/12/2011 5:52:49 PM PDT by dools0007world
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To: OddLane
So SEIU stormtroopers (canvassers) are being brought in. This will get very ugly. Maybe this time we will find out if the thugs can be turned back short of baseball bats.
34 posted on 09/12/2011 6:07:35 PM PDT by Truth29
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To: Truth29
They're out in force, as always.

I remember going to a town hall meeting held in my district by the former congressman, Michael McMahon, which was flooded by CWA redshirts demanding that their benefits not be taxed in Obamacare.

35 posted on 09/12/2011 6:14:42 PM PDT by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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To: Parley Baer

Machine politics is alive and well in NYC - we shouldn’t get our hopes up too much on this one.

PPP of course is notoriously untrustworthy.


36 posted on 09/12/2011 6:20:11 PM PDT by icanhasbailout
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To: neverdem

The rats cannot afford to lose this. They will win “By Whatever Means Necessary”. They will have Armies of the Undead marching on the district from NJ and Long Island if they need to. Be prepared for massive vote fraud.

If the Repubs manage to pull this off, it will send a shockwave throughout the Dem Party.


37 posted on 09/12/2011 6:29:44 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (When you've only heard lies your entire life, the truth sounds insane.)
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To: neverdem
From now on, every election in America is a referendum against Obama. Period. End of story.
38 posted on 09/12/2011 6:44:57 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: neverdem
Hey New York, let us all be heard tomorrow!

Thank You!

39 posted on 09/12/2011 6:57:31 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: justiceseeker93

It will be interesting to see what effect those ads have. Jude Wanniski had long argued that voters are able to see through those kinds of ads and discount them this close to the election.

Voters can be uncannily accurate in judge the candidate who best represents their wishes and interests. Obama beat McCain on several issues only to undo his promises. That’s why Obama is out.


40 posted on 09/12/2011 7:19:27 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: ken5050

Easy, Ken, they are John V. Lindsey’s elderly cousins still trying to make liberalism work.


41 posted on 09/12/2011 8:42:47 PM PDT by Theodore R.
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To: 1010RD; ml/nj; ExTexasRedhead; Just A Nobody; SunkenCiv; theothercheek; Clintonfatigued; Impy; ...
Obama beat McCain on several issues only to undo his promises.

Is there anything other than "hope and change" that Obama offered in 2008? Maybe a long history of associations with left radical extremists? It's just amazing that a purported 53% of the electorate would vote for such a snake oil salesman, many only because of his skin pigmentation.

Problem is that McCain's campaign was neither able nor willing to counterattack effectively.

42 posted on 09/12/2011 8:59:20 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: ken5050
Just WHO are those 10% of Republicans who aren’t voting for Turner?
Dewey, Rockefeller, and Lindsay supporters.
43 posted on 09/12/2011 10:59:42 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: BfloGuy

Be careful what you wish for, a RINO is not necessarily better then a democrat. RINO’s let democrats claim by-partisan support for their leftist agenda, and thus condemn republicans.

If this man is not a real republican, id kind of prefer he lose.


44 posted on 09/13/2011 1:26:37 AM PDT by Monorprise
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To: Monorprise
If this man [Turner], is not a real Republican, I'd kind of prefer he lose.

I think you could be fairly confident that a Congressman Turner will support a robust national defense and homeland security policy against Islamic extremism. He would also be in opposition to the 'Rats massive government domestic spending agenda, at least in general, including opposing ObamaCare. That should be enough to prefer him over his 'Rat opponent.

45 posted on 09/13/2011 7:14:00 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: neverdem

Wonder how many bags of votes will be lost...then suddenly found with all dem votes. I hope the dems can’t steal their way to victory.


46 posted on 09/13/2011 7:17:40 AM PDT by shield (Rev 2:9 Woe unto those who say they are Judahites and are not, but are of the syna GOG ue of Satan.)
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To: slapshot

“Boca Pembrook Pines - Population 4,386 Jewish Mothers whose children never call.”


47 posted on 09/13/2011 7:24:01 AM PDT by patton (I am sure that I have done dumber things in my life, but at the moment, I am unable to recall them.)
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To: ari-freedom
Now that it is tuesday. How does it look on the "ground" there in your district?

I have been involved in elections since 1980 and on election day a lot of times you can get a pretty good idea of how the election turns out.

Have you been walking precincts,working phone banks?

48 posted on 09/13/2011 9:05:48 AM PDT by painter (No wonder democrats don't mind taxes.THEY DON'T PAY THEM !)
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To: neverdem

I am happily eating my serving of crow.

I’m shocked that NY-9 went to a GOP candidate.

Waiting for the Reichstag fire now from the pres(id)ent. Heads have to be popping left and right in the white house tonight.


49 posted on 09/13/2011 9:40:53 PM PDT by Tailback
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