Posted on 05/28/2012 4:40:46 PM PDT by neverdem
On May 25, 2011, Kathy Hochul woke up a star.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called her from London with congratulations. Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, effusively praised her. News outlets from France, Denmark and Japan all covered the story of how she had pulled off an upset in a Republican district in a closely watched special election.
“It was an exhilarating time,” Ms. Hochul recalled.
Life is more anxiety-filled these days for Ms. Hochul, who now is the most endangered Democratic House incumbent in New York State and one of the most imperiled in the country, according to political analysts.
Redistricting has thrown the 53-year-old freshman into the most conservative district in the state — away from the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester and into a rural area of farms and villages in a district near the Canadian border.
As a result, the woman who rode a wave of anger over a Republican plan to cut Medicare a year ago must convince a primarily Republican electorate that she can represent it and offer an independent voice, regardless of party label...
--snip--
But with the governor and legislative leaders unable to agree on new Congressional lines, a federal magistrate judge intervened, releasing a map that created a district for Ms. Hochul that was even more conservative than the one she represented.
In all, about 10,000 additional Republican and Conservative voters were added to the district, while about 1,200 registered Democrats were cut out of it. The district, now New York’s 27th, is home to 188,500 registered Republicans and Conservatives, 141,000 Democrats and 22,000 independents...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Thanks for the ping!
Buerkle wasn’t helped but she was already in a rat leaning seat. It’s only about an iota more rat. The POTUS results seem to have changed by less than a % point.
That’s one big 1%, though. There’s a big difference between a 48% Bush 2004 CD and a 47% Bush 2004 CD.
I think that Maffei should be favored over Buerkle in the old NY-25 (I haven’t learned the new numbers yet). However, we’ll definitely pick up the old NY-26, we’ll probably pick up the old NY-23, we have a decent chance of beating Slaughter in the new Monroe Couny CD, and I think we’ll hold the other GOP-held Upstate CDs.
That spreadsheet has the new 2008 %s for every state but Kansas.
Slaughter’s seat is still more rat than Buerkle ‘s but we do have a strong candidate.
We do have a good candidate but, more importantly, Slaughter is an old fart who hasn’t run a competitive race in over a decade.
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