Posted on 07/07/2012 7:25:43 AM PDT by Kevmo
Journal of Petroleum Technology — July 2012
Guest Editorial • On the Precipice Of a New Energy Source? Steve Jacobs, COO, and Patrick Leach, CEO, Decision Strategies, and David J. Nagel, CEO, NUCAT Energy
Steve Jacobs is chief operating officer of Decision Strategies and has more than 30 years of experience in the oil and gas industry. His specialty is evaluating market opportunities for new and existing technologies and companies. He earned BS degrees in psychology and education from Oklahoma State University. Jacobs is an energy information ambassador for SPE. He moderates and lectures at numerous events around the world.
Patrick Leach is chief executive officer of Decision Strategies. He is a recognized expert in risk management and decision making in the face of uncertainty, and has published and presented numerous papers on these subjects. He is the author of Why Can't You Just Give Me the Number, an executive's guide to using probabilistic thinking to manage risk and make better decisions. Leach earned a BS degree in geomechanics from the University of Rochester and an MBA degree from the University of Houston.
David J. Nagel is chief executive officer of NUCAT Energy.Previously, he was a member of the senior executive service and leader of the physics division at the US Naval Research Laboratory, where he managed experimental and theoretical research and development efforts. He has also been a research professor in the department of electrical and computer engineering at George Washington University with a focus on low energy nuclear reactions. He received a BS degree in engineering science, an MS degree in physics, and a PhD in materials engineering.
In the late 1850s, the whaling industry was in a veritable boom in the town of Lahaina on the Hawaiian island of Maui. Business was great, and many in the whaling industry believed that increased demand would continue for decades to come. But in 1859, oil was discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania with a well drilled by Edwin Drake. The rest is history.
That was 150 years ago. A small but increasing number of people around the world believe we are on a similar course, except this time it is the petroleum industry that might be threatened. As with any emerging technology, critical challenges must be overcome and a significant effort lies ahead to convince a world of skeptics that a new source of energy has been discovered and will be important.
The potential new source of energy is low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR). With any discussion of a new technology, caution is advised. The world of LENR is filled with mystery, contradiction, gross speculation, misinformation, slippery timelines, and skepticism that sometimes spill over into outright denial. Healthy skepticism on LENR (or any new technology) is a good thing, but so is an open mind. If LENR is for real—and many well-qualified physicists believe it is—it will not only change the petroleum industry, but also significantly affect almost every aspect of our world. Some call it "the new fire."
In 1989 at the University of Utah, Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann announced they had discovered a cold fusion process that would ultimately result in cheap, limitless energy. The outcome from these cold fusion efforts became widely known and well documented, primarily because other researchers were unable to replicate the results from the initial experiments. Cold fusion was (and is) viewed as impossible by many in the scientific community. Although the research did not cease, it was largely ignored.For the past 20-plus years, a small number of scientists have been diligently working on what could eventually become a hugely disruptive technology.
According to New Energy Times, "LENRs are weak interactions and neutroncapture processes that occur in nanometer-to-micron-scale regions on surfaces in condensed matter at room temperature. Although nuclear, LENRs are not based on fission or any kind of fusion, both of which primarily involve the strong interaction. LENRs produce energetic nuclear reactions and elemental transmutations, but do so without strong prompt radiation or long-lived radioactive waste." ("Strong interaction" and "weak interaction" refer to the strong nuclear force and the weak nuclear force, which-along with electromagnetic force and gravity-make up the four basic forces in nature.)
The Basic Process
There are several versions of LENR being developed using different reactants and processes. The basic process of LENR is not well understood, but some experts have stated that it works as follows: Nano-sized particles of nickel, pressurized hydrogen, and a catalyst are heated in a small reactor to the point at which weak interactions between the reactants cause transmutation (i.e., some of the nickel is converted to copper). Considerable excess heat is emitted during this process. Once the reaction becomes self-sustaining, the input power can be reduced significantly and excess heat (up to 650°C) is generated in the range of five to 30 times the input energy. This can be used to create steam, which can then be used for heating and/or generating electricity. The reactants are inexpensive and ubiquitous; during operation, the system emits no greenhouse gases; when turned off, there is no radioactivity; and the unit will allegedly generate electricity for a few cents per kilowatt hour. Now that is a disruptive technology.
According to one researcher, the amount of energy released from 1 gram of nickel would be equivalent to about one barrel of oil. Heat (in the form of steam) and electricity will be the main products. In addition to residential usage, plans exist for commercial and industrial heating/electrical systems. An attractive application is the production of clean water, including desalination systems. Eventually, LENR technology could be used in transportation (e.g., vehicles, aircraft, and ships).
No doubt the skeptics—and even some of the open-minded—reading this article are now cringing. But current LENR efforts are not dependent upon the outcome of just one development effort; there are a number of LENR programs under way in Europe and the United States. Universities and government agencies involved include Stanford University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NASA, and the University of Illinois, and several private companies in Greece, Italy, and the US are also developing LENR technologies. Positive results and improved performance have been reported by the research teams, with at least four companies stating that they are in the early stages of commercial development. A small number of LENR unit manufacturing plants are reportedly being built in Europe and the US, and at least two companies have said they will begin marketing their systems later this year. If this is a hoax, it is a remarkably widespread one, involving organizations of high integrity with no obvious motivation to fool the public and quite a lot to lose in terms of reputation.
But even if a hoax is ruled out, other challenges exist, including accepted scientific explanations of LENR, better refinement of control systems, reliable operations, and a distribution/service infrastructure to maintain LENR units that would presumably be located in every business and neighborhood. There is also the nontrivial issue of full-cycle net energy gain (the LENR process may be energy positive once running, but hydrogen is a key ingredient in LENR; there are no earthly sources of free hydrogen, and it takes energy to separate it from the oxygen atom in water). There will also be regulatory issues and intellectual property challenges that may slow the pace of market penetration in the coming years.However, if this technology is for real, the value proposition for LENR will be incredible.
The best known LENR effort currently under way is by Italian Andrea Rossi and his energy catalyzer. He has developed a LENR system that reportedly is ready for commercialization. Although Rossi has had to change a number of delivery dates for his "E-Cat," he appears to be making progress. He stated in mid-April: "We have already made all the engineering of the production line in the two factories we will set up (one in the US, one in Europe) … I think that it will take from 6 to 12 months after the certifications will be done to start the production."
The Impact
If proven to work, what impact would LENR have on the petroleum industry? It is difficult to say for certain, but it would undoubtedly be significant. The vast preponderance of oil is used for transportation and heating (Fig. 1), which would now be competing with LENR. While there still would be a need for petrochemicals and other applications, collectively these end uses represent less than about 20% of each barrel. Natural gas would not fare much better; its main applications are heating and electricity. If LENR works, the impact on the petroleum industry, power generation, and coal industry would be enormous. Even wind farms and other emerging alternative energy technologies could not compete economically with LENR.
So what can be done to prepare for LENR? First, watch it closely and do not let skepticism blind you. When the Wright Brothers flew their first plane at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, the scientific community reportedly argued for years after the fact over whether a heavier-than-air craft could actually fly. Even the most obvious evidence was not enough to make some people abandon their preconceived notions of what was possible. Drake had to battle similar skepticism when he drilled the first oil well; many people in Pennsylvania called it "Drake's Folly."
It is also important to evaluate the specific impact that LENR would have on an individual company. How well positioned is your company to weather such a disruptive storm, or to capitalize on these potential opportunities? If LENR becomes a reality, you do not want to fly blindly into the side of a mountain. Investigate creative ways for your company to participate in the LENR market.While this new technology will be disruptive to a number of industries, there will also be business opportunities in the manufacturing, installation, and servicing of LENR systems in multiple applications and sizes around the globe. Millions of LENR units of varying sizes will be required because of the distributed nature of this energy technology.
There is a probability that LENR may never emerge as a reliable, new energy source. If not LENR, then what? Eventually, some other technology is bound to come along with a much superior value proposition than hydrocarbons.It is not a matter of if, but when, this will happen. There was nothing the whaling industry could do to halt its pending decline, and the same will be true when a new technology makes our current approaches to energy generation obsolete. It is vital for a company to have a strategy development process that recognizes and characterizes uncertainty, and deals with complexity appropriately, including potential game changers such as LENR. Such an approach places companies in a stronger position to mitigate risk and capture opportunities as our complex, unpredictable, and surprising future unfolds.
Don’t cry.
***Oh, so you’re a guns & roses fan?
Lyrics for their song “Don’t Cry”, modified just for you.
Talk to me softly
There is something in your eyes
Don’t hang your head in sorrow
And please don’t cry
I know how you feel inside I’ve
I’ve been there before
Somethin is changin’ inside you
And don’t you know
Don’t you cry tonight
I still love you baby
Don’t you cry tonight
Toddsterpatriot
There’s a heaven above you baby
And don’t you cry tonight
Give me a whisper
And give me a sign
Give me a kiss before you
tell me goodbye
Don’t you take it so hard now
And please don’t take it so bad
I’ll still be thinkin’ of you
And the times we had...baby
And don’t you cry tonight
Don’t you cry tonight
Toddsterpatriot
There’s a heaven above you baby
And don’t you cry tonight
And please remember that I never lied
And please remember
how I felt inside now honey
You gotta make it your own way
But you’ll be alright now Todd
You’ll feel better tomorrow
Toddsterpatriot
And don’t you cry tonight
And don’t you cry tonight
Toddsterpatriot
There’s a heaven above you baby
And don’t you cry
Don’t you ever cry
Don’t you cry tonight
Baby maybe someday
Don’t you cry
Don’t you ever cry
Don’t you cry
Toddsterpatriot
Like it or not, the above scenario fits more of the publicly avialable data than any other.
***Occham’s Razor
How can you say that? How many gallons of “coolant” did he push though the system? What if it wasn’t coolant?
***Rehashing. Those scenarios were covered more than a year ago.
How to Prove that the Rossi/Focardi eCAT LENR is Real (or fake)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2730401/posts
Sunday, June 05, 2011 7:52:15 PM · by Kevmo · 54 replies
LENR.QUMBO.com ^ | April 6, 2011 | Alan Fletcher
Yes. And since he apparently didn't let anyone test his "coolant" there is still no proof it was only water.
Non pascentur mendax troglodytae
LOL. The flow through the system was measured multiple ways in every experiment. And any sufficiently reactive chemical would be immediately apparent by color, viscosity, or other indicator (peroxide is often assumed...in the presence of the metals of the reactor, H2O2 would come out as foam...immediately visible).
"If they're only looking with their eyes, how good is the evidence?"
You perhaps missed all the instrumentation used??? Some of which the observers sneaked in and of which Rossi was not immediately aware (although they "did" stop when he so requested).
All of which above points show, that like all chronic skeptics, you have NOT examined the evidence, but are speculating.
Apparently they dumped the "coolant" down the drain.
You perhaps missed all the instrumentation used???
If Rossi brought his E-Cat to an outside location and allowed the independent observers to set up the water flow and their own instruments, without looking at his "secrets", then the readings would be more credible.
All of which above points show, that like all chronic skeptics, you have NOT examined the evidence, but are speculating.
When an independent third party runs the E-Cat, I'd love to examine some real evidence.
Maybe I'll just buy a retail E-Cat, when does WalMart start selling them? Anytime now? 2014? 2020?
Yes. And since he apparently didn’t let anyone test his “coolant” there is still no proof it was only water.
***Exactly what ‘coolant replacement’ could account for the levels of energy reported? If this is a chemical reaction, then all the better, because the NRC would not be involved.
Kevmo isn’t spelled “Toddsterpatriot”.
***The song doesn’t sound right with only 2 syllables at that spot.
How much energy did he report?
So?? The witnesses had acess to the drain pipe, and observed what was coming out. We're talking about easily observable evidence. And the witnesses certainly had open access to the WATER as it was going into the system. I repeat, any one with a reasonable background in chemistry would observe differences, just with the naked eye (I make that statement as a PhD chemist, with fifty years of lab experience). Chemicals with the energy density you're talking about are damned dangerous. Even peroxide, at the strength needed, is liable to "undergo dangerous transitions". We're not talking about the stuff in your medicine cabinet, which is diluted, but at a concentration well above 90%. "I" wouldn't want to be in the same room where someone was feeding that into a metal reactor (iron works very nicely to catalyze the decomposition of peroxide into water and oxygen, explosively) Such chemistries are difficult to control.
"If Rossi brought his E-Cat to an outside location and allowed the independent observers to set up the water flow and their own instruments, without looking at his "secrets", then the readings would be more credible."
More credible, yes. But you and the rest of the knee-jerk skeptics assign a value of zero to the existing data set, which is flatly bogus.
"When an independent third party runs the E-Cat, I'd love to examine some real evidence.
As would we all. But there is real evidence already on the table. To disregard that completely is, as I said, bogus.
Don’t post to me either!!
So it looked like water? Is that the proof that it was water?
And the witnesses certainly had open access to the WATER as it was going into the system.
Was it going in directly from the tap?
"I" wouldn't want to be in the same room where someone was feeding that into a metal reactor
Did he show the observers the inside of the device? Could they see the nickel powder?
More credible, yes.
Yes.
But you and the rest of the knee-jerk skeptics assign a value of zero to the existing data set, which is flatly bogus.
Considering Rossi's past, can you blame our knees?
So how much "excess" energy did he produce? He warmed how much water how many degrees?
Non cibos troglodytae!
Yeah, I wouldn’t want to go on record defending Rossi either.
Run away!
About a thousand times more than any known chemical reaction could account for. Just like all the other LENR researchers. But you would already know that, having informed yourself on the topic before you went spouting off your ridiculous opinions, right?
That's not true.
Non cibos troglodytae!
If you think Rossi is a liar then don’t buy one of his first 1KW units. Rossi could be a faker but we’ll soon know when these 1KW units are rolled out. Link.
It's been almost a year. Where are they?
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