FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending August 4, 2012

Rasmussen Reports ^ | August 4, 2012 | Political Junkie Too

[Political Junkie Too]

Previous Editions:

July 21, 2012
Premier - July 4, 2012

I discoverd that the maps and charts did not display last time. This is due to it being hosted by an encrypted storage site. I was using a free anonymous site in 2010, but that site has since shut down. For now, you will have to click on a link to see each chart. I apologize for the inconvenience.

This Editions's Updates:

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Since the last report, Rasmussen published polls in Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which gives Obama an Electoral College win if the election were held today. Obama has 275 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206, with 57 EV up for grabs. Probabilistically, Romney has a 12.75% chance of winning today.

In Michigan, Romney's result remained the same from the mid-June poll, while Obama lost 2%, leaving the race at a still strong +6 for Obama.

In Missouri, Romney gained 1% from the early June poll, while Obama gained 2%, netting a -2% move for Romney. Missouri remains strong for Romney.

In Nevada, the situation is improving. Romney gained 1% from a May poll, while Obama lost 2%. Romney reduced the gap from -8% to -5%. Nevada moves from Safe Obama to Strong Obama.

In North Carolina, Romney gained 2% from a late-June poll, while Obama polled the same as before. North Carolina moves from Leaning Romney to Strong Romney.

In Wisconsin, a big shift happened. Romney lost 1% from a mid-June poll, while Obama gained a whopping 5%. Wisconsin completely flipped from +3% Romney to +3% Obama, moving the state from Leans Romney to Leans Obama. Another poll after the primary will show whether this was an outlier or a true shift in the state which had remarkably tilted Republican in 2010.

Watch List - R Gain % (R Spread %):

• Colorado: No Poll (R +0%)
• Florida: No poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%) - not polled yet, 2008 result
• Indiana: No Poll (R +6%)
• Iowa: No Poll (R +1%)
• Michigan: +2% (R -6%)
• Missouri: -1% (R +6%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: +3% (R -5%)
• New Hampshire: No Poll (R -5%)
• North Carolina: +2% (R +5%)
• Ohio: No Poll (R -2%)
• Pennsylvania: No Poll (R -4%)
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%) - not polled yet, 2008 result, considered Safe
• Virginia: No Poll (R -1%)
• Wisconsin: -6% (R -3%)

Summary of Electoral College breakdown

Obama - 275								Romney - 206
Safe		Strong		Leaning		Toss-Up		Leaning		Strong		Safe
EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State	EV	State
55	California	16	Michigan	18	Ohio	9	Colorado			16	Georgia	9	Alabama
7	Connecticut	4	New Hampshire	10	Wisconsin	29	Florida			11	Indiana	3	Alaska
3	District of Columbia	6	Nevada			6	Iowa			10	Missouri	11	Arizona
3	Delaware	20	Pennsylvania			13	Virginia			15	North Carolina	6	Arkansas
4	Hawaii											4	Idaho
20	Illinois											6	Kansas
4	Maine											8	Kentucky
10	Maryland											8	Louisiana
11	Massachusetts											6	Mississippi
10	Minnesota											3	Montana
14	New Jersey											5	Nebraska
5	New Mexico											3	North Dakota
29	New York											7	Oklahoma
7	Oregon											9	South Carolina
4	Rhode Island											3	South Dakota
3	Vermont											11	Tennessee
12	Washington											38	Texas
												6	Utah
												5	West Virginia
												3	Wyoming
201		46		28		57		0		52		154

2008 Final Results

Link to 2008 Final Election Map

Current State Leanings

Link to Current Electoral College Map

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
12-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
19-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
26-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%
09-Jun-12	221	247.73	275	14.02%
16-Jun-12	230	257.37	282	28.95%
23-Jun-12	231	257.92	282	30.10%
30-Jun-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
07-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
14-Jul-12	225	254.58	282	24.61%
21-Jul-12	219	248.33	276	16.46%
28-Jul-12	215	244.1	272	11.78%
04-Aug-12	216	245.64	273	12.75%

Link to Probability Chart

State Details

Colorado (9 EV)

Colorado is tied at 45% each. In 2008, Obama won in Colorado over McCain with 53.7% to 44.7%, so Obama lost a 9% lead.

At this time In 2008, Colorado was favoring Obama 43% to 41%. Rasmussen's next Colorado poll was in the last week of July, when Obama pulled ahead 49% to 42%. In mid-September it flipped to McCain 48% to 46%. The end of September had Obama leading 49% to 48%. The first week of October had Obama finally pulling away 51% to 45%. In the week before the election, Obama held his lead 51% to 47%.

Florida (29 EV)

Florida went for Obama in 2008 by 50.9% to 48.1%, making it a close race. I can see why Obama wants to block purging the voter rolls of invalid voters. Rasmussen has polled Florida twice so far, getting the same result of Romney ahead 46% to 45%.

In 2008, McCain was leading for most of the race. In March 08, McCain was up 47%-43%. In April it was 53%-38%. In May it was 50%-40%. Mid-June was 47%-39%, and end-of-June was 48% to 41%. Things changed in the end-of-July poll. Obama took the lead 46%-45%. Ny mid-September,it was back to McCain on top again 51%-46%. At the end of September, the vote evened at 47%, and in early October Obama led 52% to 45%. The last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Georgia (16 EV)

Georgia voted for McCain 52.1%-46.9%. Georgia has not been polled this year.

In early March of 2008, Georgia was for the GOP 53%-40%. The few polls that there were hovered at +/- this same result. It narrowed in the end as the undecided broke for Obama.

Indiana (11 EV)

Indiana was an extremely close race in 2008, voting for Obama by 49.9% to 48.8%. This time around, and end-of-May poll has Romney leading Obama 48%-42%, a comfortable lead.

In 2008, Rasmussen didn't poll Indiana until mid-September, when McCain was ahead 49%-47%. A last poll in November had McCain still leading 49%-46%. Obama turned it around in the last week.

Iowa (6 EV)

Iowa was a solid Obama state, voting 53.9% to 44.4%. In June, Rasmussen's poll found Romney barely ahead 47%-46%.

In 2008, a June poll showed Obama ahead of McCain 45%-38%. The next poll at the end of September still showed Obama leading 51%-43%. One last poll in November had Obama 52%-44%.

Michigan (16 EV)

Michigan is a blue state, voting for Obama 57.3% to 40.9%. A poll in mid-June shows Obama losing 7%, making this race just within the margin of error at 50%-42%. This week's poll has Obama losing 2% more, moving the race to 48%-42% for Obama.

A June 2008 poll had Michigan in a closer race, with Obama leading 45%-42%. A late-July poll widened the lead 47%-39%. A September poll had Michigan at 51%-44%, and a November poll had it 53%-43%.

Missouri (10 EV)

Missouri was a squeaker of a race in 2008, voting for McCain by the slimmest of margins, 49.4% to 49.2%. Currently, a June poll has Romney with a solid lead at 49%-42%. An earlier poll had ROmney leading 48%-45%, so Romney is improving here. This week's poll shows slight gains for both candidates, making the race now 50%-44% for Romney.

At this point in 2008, McCain was ahead in Missouri 47%-42%. By October, Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. In November, Rasmussen had it tied at 49%.

Montana (3 EV)

Montana was a close race in 2008, with McCain winning by 49.5% to 47.1%. As of May, Romney was leading 51%-44%. By June, Obama's support fell, making the race 51%-42%.

In 2008, Rasmussen had Republicans ahead in April by 48%-43%. By July, that flipped to Democrats ahead 48%-43%. In October it was back to McCain ahead 52%-44%. A final November poll had it for McCain at 50%-46%.

Nevada (6 EV)

Nevada went solidly for Obama in 2008 by 55.2% to 42.7%. An early poll showed the race at 52%-44% for Obama. Nevada is moving in Romney's direction, although it is still strong for Obama. This week's poll has Obama winning in Nevada with 50%-45%.

Nevada was actually leaning Republican for awhile in 2008, with a May poll showing 46%-40%. A June poll narrowed the lead to 45%-42%, and by July it flipped to Obama 42%-40%. In September, it was back to McCain 49%-46%, but in October it was back to Obama 51%-47%. November had Nevada for Obama 50%-46%.

New Hampshire (4 EV)

New Hampshire voted for Obama by 54.1% to 44.5%. A June poll shows that Obama lost 6%, making it a race at 48%-43% for Obama.

in 2008, New Hampshire always preferred Obama by at least 10%.

North Carolina (15 EV)

North Carolina barely voted for Obama 49.7% to 49.4%. A May poll has Romney in the lead 51%-43%. In June,the race was closing a bit, with Romney still leading at 47%-44%. This week's poll gained back some of Romney's loss, currently sitting at 49%-44% for Romney.

In 2008, McCain was in a narrow lead for the summer at 45%-43%. By the end of September, McCain lost his lead to Obama 49%-47%. Rasmussen's last poll had McCain winning 50%-49%.

Ohio (18 EV)

Ohio voted for Obama with 51.4% to 46.8%. An early-season poll had Obama still leading at 46%-42%, with both sides losing support. A June poll has some of the undecideds moving to Romney at 46%-44%, a four-point add for Romney and another two-point loss for Obama. A mid-July poll has Romney slipping and Obama gaining, flipping the lead to Obama 47%-45%.

Ohio was close in 2008 also, with the race polling at 45%-44% for Republicans throughout June. By the end of September, the race was 48%-47% for McCain. Rasmussen's final November poll had it even at 49%.

Pennsylvania (20 EV)

Pennsylvania went for Obama by 54.5% to 44.2%. A May poll shows Obama losing 7%, giving a 47%-41% Obama lead. A mid-July poll show Obama gaining back 1%, but Romney gained 3%, netting an additional 2% loss for Obama.

In 2008, McCain consistently trailed Obama throughout the election 5% or more, with the state finally breaking decidedly for Obama in October.

Virginia (13 EV)

Virginia overwhelingly voted for Obama by 52.6% to 46.3%. An early poll showed Romney leading 45%-44%, and an early June poll shows it tied at 47%, indicating that Obama has lost 5% so far. A mid-July poll gained nothing for Obama, but Romney lost 1% from early June.

A June 2008 poll had the race barely for Obama by 45%-44%. By July it was tied at 44%, and by September Obama pulled ahead 50%-47%. The November poll called it for Obama 51%-47%.

Wisconsin (10 EV)

Wisconsin was solidly Democrat in 2008, voting for Obama 56.2% to 42.3%. In May, this was still true with a poll showing Obama leading 49% to 45%. A mid-June poll showed Romney in the lead 47%-44%, making Wisconsin a 12-point loss for Obama. This week's poll gives up half of those gains, flipping the state back to Obama with 49%-46%.

In 2008, Rasmussen was polling Wisconsin at 45%-43% for Obama throughout June. In July, Obama's lead widened to 50%-39%, and in November it was still 51%-44%.

And in the Senate...

The race for Senate control is still see-sawing. The Republicans gain a state here and lose a state there.

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

As of now, the Senate looks to be a 51-49 GOP take-over, with a probability of 75.39%.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

In Indiana, Republican Mourdock held steady from an early June poll, remaining at 42%, while Democrat Donnelly lost 2%, making this race a 42%-40% hold.

In Missouri, the polling tightened a bit as Democrat McCaskill gained 4% over the early June poll, while the leading Republican Steelman lost 2%, making this race a 49%-43% pick-up.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Casey picked up an additional 1% over Republican Smith, while Republican Smith loses 3% from an early June poll. Pennsylvania moves to a Safe Democrat hold.

In Wisconsin, we see the same extreme flip-flop from the mid-June poll as we are seeing the Presidential race. Republican Thompson fell from 52% to 41%, while Democrat Baldwin gained from 36% to 48%, indicating a Democrat hold. A new poll after the primary will sort this out.

Watch List:

• Indiana 2: +2% (R +2%)
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri2: -6% (R +6%) - moves back into the margin of error
• Montana 2: No Poll (R +2%)
• New Mexico 1: No Poll (R -4%)
• Ohio 1: No Poll (R -6%)
• Pennsylvania 1: -4% (R -11%) - drops out of the margin of error
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: No Poll (R -1%)
• Wisconsin 2: -23% (R -7%) - moves back into the margin of error

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
12-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
19-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
26-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3
09-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
16-Jun-12	49	50.37	52	44.50%	3
23-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
30-Jun-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
07-Jul-12	49	50.05	52	34.52%	3
14-Jul-12	51	52.04	54	91.10%	5
21-Jul-12	51	52.19	54	92.42%	5
28-Jul-12	51	52.17	54	92.18%	5
04-Aug-12	50	51.33	53	75.39%	4

Link to Senate Probability Chart

-PJ

[Impy]

My current ranking

1)NE
2)AZ
3)IN (new Ras poll has Mourdock up only 42-40 but I’m not worried, the high undecideds must be largley Lugar supporters who won’t break for the democrat as Osama loses the state)
4)MO (Claire looks like toast, this race could move up the list)
5)ND
6)NV (Heller is not in real jeopardy)
7)MT
8)WI ( GOP primary seems to be helping El Lesbo)
9)MA
10)VA
11)FL (moved it back ahead of OH)
12)OH
13)NM
14)MI
15)NJ
16)HI (it’s harder to rank these second tier races, NJ is lot less rat than Hawaii put you make a case to reverse them)
17)PA
18)CT
19)ME (polling looks bad, King has 100% name id though, the rat needs some)
20)WA
21)WV (This should way higher but retread Raese doesn’t seem to have a prayer, the few polls have Manchin running like Bob Byrd, WV is going big Nobama or else I’d put MN ahead even though the Paulbot has no chance in MN, such a shame)

[campaignPete R-CT]

if Impy didn’t send me pings, I could say that nobody talks to me.

Oh well, gotta give a talk tomorrow on the Obama Healthcare contraception mandate and gay radical alert. I bet they talk a little, but don’t want no yellin’.

[campaignPete R-CT]

any ideas on how I can get polling numbers or predictions on CT-5 primary 7 days from now?

Not easy to poll a 4-way light turnout CT primary. Liberal Roraback gotta be in trouble. Bernier running 4th. Any ideas?

[Sun]

“..who wins?”

Way to soon to tell, but yet interesting to watch for a possible early warning.

[fieldmarshaldj]

OurCampaigns predicts Roraback, but who knows ? I’ve not seen any data.

[Political Junkie Too]

The best I can do is this site from the New York Times. They are calling the race a toss-up, because the incumbant is leaving the seat to run for Lieberman's vacated Senate seat, and the Democrat replacing him is under a corruption investigation, as if that matters to Democrats.

-PJ

[campaignPete R-CT]

yes, PJ. Toss-up in NOV.
But trying to get primary polling so we can convince 4th place Bernier supporters to throw their support to somebody else vs. Roraback.

[Political Junkie Too]

Maybe this site - Connecticut 5th District might be useful to you.

[Impy]

Would you like more pings? I don’t think I ping you that much.

[Impy]

I have not seen a GOP primary poll for this race.

But Bernier has no money, and Wilson-Foley is tied to Rowland so Greenberg seems like the right choice to me if only by default.

Maybe call the campaigns and ask nicely for their internal polling numbers? ;d I’ve got nothing to suggest but simple common sense and reason but that won’t be enough I don’t think. In convincing hard cases not to waste their vote on a guy who will come in last you have your work cut out for you.

[InterceptPoint]

Ping to bookmark.

[Political Junkie Too]

Today's Rasmussen poll in Ohio shows the race is now tied. With the prior poll at -2% for Romney, Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes was being probabilistically split as roughly 12.6 going to Obama and 5.4 going to Romney.

With this new poll, Obama loses 3.6 EVs to Romney, and moves Ohio into the Toss-up column. Ohio started the election season at +4% for Obama, in June moved to +2% for Romney, in July moved to +2% for Obama, and is now moving back towards Romney.

Is this the start of the expected trend?

-PJ

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

Thanks for the information on Ohio. What particular demographic puts Ohio “in play?”

[SumProVita]

Let’s pray that it will be!!!!

;-))

[randita]

Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will probably change slightly as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 8/14/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

Florida, Wisconsin and Connecticut have their primaries today, so by this evening, we'll know who the candidates will be in those states.

 

8/14/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win
State	Republican Candidate	Democrat/IND Candidate	Hold OR Gain
NE*	Debra Fischer	Bob Kerrey	GAIN
AZ*	Primary 8/28/12		HOLD
IN*	Richard Mourdock	Joe Donnelly	HOLD
MO	Todd Akin	Claire McCaskill+	GAIN
WI*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
NV	Dean Heller+	Shelley Berkley	HOLD
ND*	Rick Berg	Heidi Heitcamp	GAIN
MT	Denny Rehberg	Jon Tester*	GAIN
MA	Scott Brown+	Elizabeth Warren	HOLD
VA*	George Allen	Tim Kaine	GAIN
OH	Josh Mandel	Sherrod Brown+	GAIN
FL	Primary 8/14/12	Bill Nelson+	GAIN
MI	Pete Hoekstra	Debbie Stabenow+	GAIN
NM*	Heather Wilson	Martin Heinrich	GAIN
NJ	Joe Kyrillos	Bob Menendez+	GAIN
PA	Tom Smith	Bob Casey+	GAIN
WV	John Raese	Joe Manchin+	GAIN
HI*	Linda Lingle	Mazie Hirono	GAIN
CT*	Primary 8/14/12		GAIN
ME*	Charles Summers	Angus King (Ind.)	HOLD
WA	Michael Baumgartner	Maria Cantwell+	GAIN
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner

 

[justiceseeker93]

I like Rasmussen as a pollster and he is generally more accurate than others because he does likely voters and generally comes up with a sample whose party identification percentages are closer to the anticipated electorate in November.

But you neglect two factors in your extensive analysis. (1) Those who tell Ras (or, more precisely, his robo-call apparatus) that they are undecided are much more likely to vote Romney than Obama come November, because merely saying you're undecided is actually a vote against re-electing the incumbent. Thus the axiom that undecideds generally break against the incumbent in any race, especially this one where the incumbent is very well known and consistently has job approval or favorability ratings in the 40s. (2) The same goes for those who say they favor a third party candidate, many of whom say that out of annoyance with the robo-call poll. Third party candidate support almost always tails off as the election approaches, and the majority of their supporters eventually go with one of the major candidates, feeling that they shouldn't "waste" their vote. (Do you really think that third party candidates will get the 6% of the vote in Ohio, for example, that Ras shows today? No way!) These respondents who drift away from their third party candidate as the election approaches also tend to go with the challenger over the incumbent.

Moral of the story: don't read Ras so literally as indicator of the November result. Those "hidden" undecideds and third party candidate supporters will give Romney the extra few points he needs in many of the swing states to achieve a comfortable enough plurality in the popular vote (which he even showing now, nationally, in Ras) and with that an almost inevitable majority in the electoral college - barring an Obama fraud factor to a degree never before seen in a presidential election.

If you don't believe me, ask Dickie Morris. (LOL!)

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks justiceseeker93. G’night all.

[Pollster1]

This is getting dated, but it’s still a good state by state reference. Thank you again.

[Political Junkie Too]

Sorry, did you not get pinged to my update from Sunday?

FR Exclusive: Political Junkie's Guide To The Elections - Week Ending August 11, 2012

-PJ