Posted on 09/10/2012 3:07:59 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 10, 2012
Christian Heinze
A new CNN poll of likely voters confirms a Barack Obama convention bounce, as he now leads Mitt Romney, 52%-46%.
But here's a very curious internal.
Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time.
And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.
There's no doubt Obama got a convention bounce, but the independent number indicates a pretty severe oversample among Democrats in this poll.
(Excerpt) Read more at gop12.thehill.com ...
It's possible if you look at CNN's methodology. I laughed out loud the first time I heard how they do polls like this one. I prefer not to follow up with details, but I would dismiss this result completely.
Maybe we are seeing why FDR extended the depression with the same kind of policies
Well Romney does need to fight his way to the victory, with appearances by himself and his surrogates. I mean assertive appearances. It isn’t going to be handed to him because he says people need jobs.
I do think his crew is smart enough to realize that.
I agree..and I am also betting on that Obama did NOT get any convention bounce at all, or might have even lost a few points, so the media has to build him up again. There is no way that Romney can have a 14 point advantage with Independents and losing(Some on twitter are speculating Romney has at least a 20 point advantage with Indies) just you watch, a week before the election, all of a sudden the pollsters will say that Romney has a 5-6 point lead. They will have to do that to save face. A few days ago when all of these bogus polls came out I was freaking out too, but now I get it
Yep. Just the independents thing shows that this is not possible. That is all I need. Even THE HILL is dissing it, lol.
This might as well be an online poll
No way is this poll even close to reality.
But here's a very curious internal. Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That's a blowout number. Both candidates get 96%-97% of their respective parties, so this means that this sample must have leaned Democratic big-time. And of course, CNN didn't release the sampling breakdown.Thanks smoothsailing. Additional: the real story:
If all the polling put together is to be believed at all, Romney is down no more that 5% at this point. That is not a bad place to be. He just needs to start gaining and keep momentum increasing through October.
When I see a CNN poll where they report a poll sayiong that we did a sample 33% Independents, 33% Dems, 33% GOP and 1% minor parties and it gives an favorable number to Obama...then I’ll believe it... but the polling data is always in the D favor.. so it is BS!!
Great!
Get to work, Romney!
Win those debates and go all out to win it.
feh...
Romney leads among independents, 54%-40%. That’s a blowout number
Nothing else needs to be said.
I notice that Obama leads among men 48%-47% among likely voters, which is about the same as in 2008. I doubt this will be the case this time given IMO fewer white votes.
Obama gets 42% of the white vote, which is about what he got last time--43%. I just don't believe it.
And Romney gets 54% to 40% of the independent vote. Obama got 52% of Independents compared to 44% for McCain. Independents were 29% of the vote. Compare that to the 18% in the CNN poll.
I think Romney is leading by probably 20 percent amongst Independents. I dont think CNN meant to put that internal number in their polling make-up, that was probably meant to be kept out. THIS is why the media has been saying that Obama got a big bounce from his Convention, I think his numbers dropped from the Convention and this is the media’s way of trying to level the playing field with the enthusiasm. If Romney is leading THAT much with Indies he’s already won
I ran some numbers on this too.
The standard breakdown for a sample based on the Rasmussen research is R 37% D 33% I 30% (all rounded)
For CNN to achieve the result they did, they used an R 30% D 40% I 30% sample.
That’s D+7 and R-7 !!! A 14 point fudge factor.
Just make sure you take a few folks to the polls when you vote.
Oversampling dems will account for dem dirty tricks, e.g. voting by illegals and the dead. Not saying it’s right but it may be more accurate.
It’s difficult for any Republican candidate to win the debates when the networks give 0bama his questions in advance and wage a ‘gotcha’ war on the opposition. Look for Romney to get one detailed foreign affairs question after another, such as ‘Who’s the president of Namibia?’ while 0bama gets ‘What’s your favorite pizza topping?”, etc.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.