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Barack Obama, Mitt Romney essentially tied in Florida, new Times/Herald/Bay News 9 poll shows
Tampa Bay Tribune ^ | Sep 22 2012 | Adam C. Smith

Posted on 09/22/2012 10:21:14 PM PDT by WilliamIII

It's Florida, after all, so what would you expect?

After a constant stream of Sunshine State visits by President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, after many millions spent on TV ads, and even after a Republican National Convention in Tampa, Obama and Romney are essentially tied in America's ultimate battleground state.

A new Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds 48 percent of likely Florida voters backing Obama, 47 percent supporting Romney, 1 percent with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and just 4 percent undecided.

(Excerpt) Read more at tampabay.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 0clings2cokeandislam; 2012polls; election2012; fl; fl20122012polls; florida; poll2012; polls; romney
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1 posted on 09/22/2012 10:21:18 PM PDT by WilliamIII
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To: WilliamIII; LS; Perdogg

Bump


2 posted on 09/22/2012 10:28:05 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: WilliamIII

Mitt’s fate = Florida. With a side dish of Ohio, but he almost cannot win without FL.


3 posted on 09/22/2012 10:28:05 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: WilliamIII

I can’t find any internals listed for this poll. If they used a model of more than +2 democrat, the poll is bogus.


4 posted on 09/22/2012 10:34:31 PM PDT by jimbobfoster
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To: WilliamIII

Are people in Florida nuts?

Does a bear poop in the woods?

Is the Pope Catholic?

Is Obama a Muslim?


5 posted on 09/22/2012 10:40:31 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: WilliamIII

But Romney has basically pulled even with Obama over managing Medicare, a traditional Democratic strength.

Obama is winning the Hispanic vote. But Democrats fret his margin might not be enough to counterbalance the white voters who favor Romney by double digits.

Each candidate has strong support from his respective party, although Romney has slightly more Republican backing compared to the percentage of Democrats favoring Obama.

The relatively stronger internal party support could prove pivotal for Romney. If the same proportion of Republicans, Democrats and independents cast ballots in 2012 compared to 2008 — a high watermark for Democrats — Romney could have the edge on Election Day, the poll indicates.

Non-Hispanic white voters also back Romney by a 15-point margin, the poll suggests. That’s significant in a state where they account for two-thirds of the registered voters and tend to cast ballots in disproportionately higher numbers than, say, Hispanic voters, who comprise 14 percent of the active voter rolls.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/22/3016362_p2/obama-48-romney-47-in-hard-fought.html#storylink=cpy


6 posted on 09/22/2012 10:47:21 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: 1035rep

even with 2008 turnout levels, Romney would probably still win?

How is this a tie then? Ain’t no way Obama gets 2008 levels, then no way he’ll win Florida, right?


7 posted on 09/22/2012 10:58:15 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: GeronL

Are you talking real or made up voters in Miami-Dade?


8 posted on 09/22/2012 11:04:51 PM PDT by Ingtar (Everyone complains about the weather, but only Liberals try to legislate it.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Mitt’s ahead in Florida by three or four points. Obama’s campaign flack just told everyone to ignore the polls (? the media shills have been printing cooked poll results 24-7!), that Obama is winning. That’s a smokin’ gun, right there. Thanks WilliamIII.


9 posted on 09/22/2012 11:04:55 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Ingtar; SunkenCiv

Obama has told them he needs the bandwagon effect


10 posted on 09/22/2012 11:08:47 PM PDT by GeronL (The Right to Life came before the Right to Pursue Happiness)
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To: jimbobfoster

No internals? Straight-up lie.


11 posted on 09/22/2012 11:15:42 PM PDT by Lazamataz (RAGE MONKEY RULEZ!!!)
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To: WilliamIII

Florida is going GOP.


12 posted on 09/22/2012 11:19:16 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: GeronL

I agree. Interesting data on this poll at the link. It say’s it’s tied but looks like Romney is in a better position to win it.

Obama’s lead among Hispanic voters is smaller in Florida than in other Hispanic-heavy battleground states because of the presence of Cuban-Americans. They tend to vote Republican and account for about 70 percent of the registered Republicans in Miami-Dade, the state’s largest county.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/22/3016362_p3/obama-48-romney-47-in-hard-fought.html#storylink=cpy


13 posted on 09/22/2012 11:24:19 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: fortheDeclaration

“Florida is going GOP.”

Yep! Goodbye Kenyan!


14 posted on 09/22/2012 11:34:01 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: WilliamIII

The one percent with Gary Johnson need to examine their consciences carefully.


15 posted on 09/22/2012 11:39:08 PM PDT by firebrand
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To: WilliamIII

Quick. Send out the demagogues.


16 posted on 09/23/2012 12:14:31 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: GeronL

You could eliminate 90% of the nuts if you chopped off SE Florida and the Tampa Bay/Clearwater/St.Pete areas. Hell, most of them vote twice. Here and in the NE.


17 posted on 09/23/2012 3:50:02 AM PDT by poobear (Socialism, in the minds of the elites, is a con-game for the serfs, nothing more.)
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To: JulieRNR21; kinganamort; katherineisgreat; floriduh voter; summer; Goldwater Girl; windchime; ...

Florida Freeper


18 posted on 09/23/2012 4:12:43 AM PDT by Joe Brower (Sheep have three speeds: "graze", "stampede" and "cower".)
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To: fortheDeclaration

From your lips to God’s ears.


19 posted on 09/23/2012 4:32:56 AM PDT by Mrs. P (Figures can lie, and liars can figure.)
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To: GeronL

Every Cook County Democrat I know retires to Florida, especially the ones with government pensions. So you have a solid block of nursing seniors in Florida and they have teeth. It’s going to be painful.


20 posted on 09/23/2012 4:33:58 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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21 posted on 09/23/2012 4:38:53 AM PDT by devolve (----- ------- ------------LET*S_RUN_A_POLITE_LOSER_CAMPAIGN-------- ----------------------------)
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To: WilliamIII

After a week of the constant MSM of jumping on Romney for the 47 % comments and the constant 2 weeks of the MSM jumping on Romney for his comments on Libya.......and they are tied up??

Throw in the oversampled Dem polls and the MSM trumpeting that Obama has this in the bag means only one thing:

Romney is leading in the polls and the chair is sinking into oblivion.


22 posted on 09/23/2012 5:00:49 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: WilliamIII
The GOP will sweep Florida....Romney, Connie Mack.....and so on down the ballot.

Leni
(Florida)

23 posted on 09/23/2012 5:08:28 AM PDT by MinuteGal
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To: MinuteGal
The GOP will sweep Florida....Romney, Connie Mack.....and so on down the ballot.

I think so too Leni.

Between Obama screwing up his presidency and Florida taking a hard right turn over the last several years I don't see how Maobama can pull it out.

Also, there is literally NO demographic (old, young, black, white, rich, poor, soccer moms whoever) that will show up in anything like the numbers they did in '08, while a lot more from our side will.

24 posted on 09/23/2012 5:17:34 AM PDT by AAABEST (Et lux in tenebris lucet: et tenebrae eam non comprehenderunt)
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To: WilliamIII

Either Romney is not clicking in FL despite his primary victory there, or tens of thousands of more northern liberals have moved into the state since McPain was on the ballot, bringing their liberalism with them. Yet the northern states remain liberal even as liberals leave there for FL and other points south.


25 posted on 09/23/2012 5:27:21 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: AAABEST

Those soccer moms that you mention have to be at the top of the “clueless” list.


26 posted on 09/23/2012 5:28:32 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: WilliamIII
Even assuming there has been no oversampling of Dems (I'd be surprised if there wasn't), taking the undecideds into account means Romney isn't in such bad shape.

If the 4% of undecided *likely* voters split 3:1 to the challenger, which is not so far fetched based on past elections, Romney takes FL. Even if some of them are still undecided come election day and stay home, Romney will still get the majority of those who do vote.

27 posted on 09/23/2012 5:32:24 AM PDT by mellow velo (Oxymorons: jumbo shrimp, rap music, liberal think-tank)
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To: mellow velo

Look at my post on florida registration. By numbers alone. Dems will not show up like 2008.


28 posted on 09/23/2012 5:43:14 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

Right. Mitt can’t win without two out of these three: FL, VA and OH.


29 posted on 09/23/2012 5:51:46 AM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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To: GeronL

30 posted on 09/23/2012 5:56:00 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Lazamataz
No internals? Straight-up lie.

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 354 (44%)

Republican 308 (39%)

Independent or Other 138 (17%)

(Dem +5)

31 posted on 09/23/2012 5:57:06 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (2010 All Over Again. Make it happen. Get Busy!)
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To: WilliamIII

As everyone knows, Romney needs to improve his messaging. He needs to first debunk Obama’s successful messaging:
1. Republican ideals DID NOT get us here. It was toxic home loans - thanks to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, and 9-11.
2. It doesnt take 4 years to turn around the effects of a recession if the correct policies are in place. Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton (really Newt) all showed us how.
3. Communicate what we knows works.
A good resource for clear messaging I have found on realitybatslast web page.


32 posted on 09/23/2012 6:17:30 AM PDT by Alex Baker
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To: Joe Brower

General observation: I’m in the Bay area, and during the GOP primary, there was a lot of visible support for Paul. Now, I’m noticing a lot of signs, bumperstickers, even the big signs that go on top of cars, for the Libertarian Gary Johnson. In a close race..it could make the differenc, just as Nader cost Gore the election in 2008.


33 posted on 09/23/2012 6:18:16 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: Palmetto Patriot
“If the same proportion of Republicans, Democrats and independents cast ballots in 2012 compared to 2008 — a high watermark for Democrats — Romney could have the edge on Election Day, the poll indicates”.

MSM dream.

Independents are fleeing Obama and will vote in higher proportions than ‘08 AGAINST Obama. GOP turnout should also eclipse ‘08 levels.

34 posted on 09/23/2012 6:22:06 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: ken5050

Johnsons vote will be eqauled by the other nuts vote from the green party


35 posted on 09/23/2012 6:24:12 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: italianquaker

eqauled=equaled


36 posted on 09/23/2012 6:25:19 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: Col Frank Slade
Obama won Florida by 2.5% in 2008.

How can this poll justify oversampling Dems by 5%?

37 posted on 09/23/2012 6:38:20 AM PDT by Palmetto Patriot (2010 All Over Again. Make it happen. Get Busy!)
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To: ken5050

Ross Perot gave us Clinton. We have to stay together. Romney is our ONLY chance


38 posted on 09/23/2012 6:39:37 AM PDT by Alex Baker
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To: Palmetto Patriot

Because Democrats in Florida have a 5 point advantage in registered voters:

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp


39 posted on 09/23/2012 6:47:12 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: GeronL

“Are people in Florida nuts?
Does a bear poop in the woods?
Is the Pope Catholic?
Is Obama a Muslim?”

Gosh, you’re four for four this morning!

The poll numbers out of FL are not encouraging. The state seems to be going the same way as Virginia — that is to say, Obama is inching closer to the 50% mark, with Romney close behind, but still, behind. Without Florida, Romney will not win.

Remember these comments from not so long ago...?
“The dog catcher could beat Obama!”
“The DOG could beat Obama!”
“A ham sandwich could beat Obama!”

What the heck happened?


40 posted on 09/23/2012 6:56:51 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: jjotto

But they dont vote their registration advantage. True turnout will be between R=D to D+2. Even 2008, their registration advantage swelled to D+7 but their turnout advantage was much less.


41 posted on 09/23/2012 6:58:31 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: fortheDeclaration

“Florida is going GOP.”

Jes’ like Virginia and Ohio, right?

Right ????


42 posted on 09/23/2012 6:58:59 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Road Glide

Actually very encoraging. You should read the article so you can understand.


43 posted on 09/23/2012 7:00:50 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Road Glide

You should check out rasmussen numbers this am. That should cheer u up or depress you if you’re a dem. Can’t tell with you


44 posted on 09/23/2012 7:04:07 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Libs can’t afford the gas to get to the polls.


45 posted on 09/23/2012 7:04:18 AM PDT by PA-RIVER
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To: Ravi

Yes. But the point is that the pollster can claim some methodology for being a Democrat shill.

FReepers and bloggers have become adept at applying REASONABLE interpretations of slanted polling data.


46 posted on 09/23/2012 7:15:53 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: Palmetto Patriot

where did you find that? could you please provide a link


47 posted on 09/23/2012 7:19:42 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: jjotto

True I hadn’t followed your point. They’re using simple registration numbers to determine turnout when that’s not accurate at all. Mason-dixon should know better


48 posted on 09/23/2012 7:21:53 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: WilliamIII
No worries. Give Miff time. He is going to find a way to blow this and stick us with Obama another 40 years. Dictator in Chief of Muslin USA coming in November.
49 posted on 09/23/2012 7:22:49 AM PDT by RetiredArmy (The Scriptures clearly tell us we are in the last days, the end times. Christ is the only answer!)
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To: Ravi

Of course Mason-Dixon knows better. It’s called an unreported campaign contribution.


50 posted on 09/23/2012 7:25:47 AM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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