Skip to comments.Barack Obama, Mitt Romney essentially tied in Florida, new Times/Herald/Bay News 9 poll shows
Posted on 09/22/2012 10:21:14 PM PDT by WilliamIII
It's Florida, after all, so what would you expect?
After a constant stream of Sunshine State visits by President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, after many millions spent on TV ads, and even after a Republican National Convention in Tampa, Obama and Romney are essentially tied in America's ultimate battleground state.
A new Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds 48 percent of likely Florida voters backing Obama, 47 percent supporting Romney, 1 percent with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and just 4 percent undecided.
(Excerpt) Read more at tampabay.com ...
Mitt’s fate = Florida. With a side dish of Ohio, but he almost cannot win without FL.
I can’t find any internals listed for this poll. If they used a model of more than +2 democrat, the poll is bogus.
Are people in Florida nuts?
Does a bear poop in the woods?
Is the Pope Catholic?
Is Obama a Muslim?
But Romney has basically pulled even with Obama over managing Medicare, a traditional Democratic strength.
Obama is winning the Hispanic vote. But Democrats fret his margin might not be enough to counterbalance the white voters who favor Romney by double digits.
Each candidate has strong support from his respective party, although Romney has slightly more Republican backing compared to the percentage of Democrats favoring Obama.
The relatively stronger internal party support could prove pivotal for Romney. If the same proportion of Republicans, Democrats and independents cast ballots in 2012 compared to 2008 a high watermark for Democrats Romney could have the edge on Election Day, the poll indicates.
Non-Hispanic white voters also back Romney by a 15-point margin, the poll suggests. Thats significant in a state where they account for two-thirds of the registered voters and tend to cast ballots in disproportionately higher numbers than, say, Hispanic voters, who comprise 14 percent of the active voter rolls.
even with 2008 turnout levels, Romney would probably still win?
How is this a tie then? Ain’t no way Obama gets 2008 levels, then no way he’ll win Florida, right?
Are you talking real or made up voters in Miami-Dade?
Mitt’s ahead in Florida by three or four points. Obama’s campaign flack just told everyone to ignore the polls (? the media shills have been printing cooked poll results 24-7!), that Obama is winning. That’s a smokin’ gun, right there. Thanks WilliamIII.
Obama has told them he needs the bandwagon effect
No internals? Straight-up lie.
Florida is going GOP.
I agree. Interesting data on this poll at the link. It say’s it’s tied but looks like Romney is in a better position to win it.
Obamas lead among Hispanic voters is smaller in Florida than in other Hispanic-heavy battleground states because of the presence of Cuban-Americans. They tend to vote Republican and account for about 70 percent of the registered Republicans in Miami-Dade, the states largest county.
“Florida is going GOP.”
Yep! Goodbye Kenyan!
The one percent with Gary Johnson need to examine their consciences carefully.
Quick. Send out the demagogues.
You could eliminate 90% of the nuts if you chopped off SE Florida and the Tampa Bay/Clearwater/St.Pete areas. Hell, most of them vote twice. Here and in the NE.
From your lips to God’s ears.
Every Cook County Democrat I know retires to Florida, especially the ones with government pensions. So you have a solid block of nursing seniors in Florida and they have teeth. It’s going to be painful.
After a week of the constant MSM of jumping on Romney for the 47 % comments and the constant 2 weeks of the MSM jumping on Romney for his comments on Libya.......and they are tied up??
Throw in the oversampled Dem polls and the MSM trumpeting that Obama has this in the bag means only one thing:
Romney is leading in the polls and the chair is sinking into oblivion.
I think so too Leni.
Between Obama screwing up his presidency and Florida taking a hard right turn over the last several years I don't see how Maobama can pull it out.
Also, there is literally NO demographic (old, young, black, white, rich, poor, soccer moms whoever) that will show up in anything like the numbers they did in '08, while a lot more from our side will.
Either Romney is not clicking in FL despite his primary victory there, or tens of thousands of more northern liberals have moved into the state since McPain was on the ballot, bringing their liberalism with them. Yet the northern states remain liberal even as liberals leave there for FL and other points south.
Those soccer moms that you mention have to be at the top of the “clueless” list.
If the 4% of undecided *likely* voters split 3:1 to the challenger, which is not so far fetched based on past elections, Romney takes FL. Even if some of them are still undecided come election day and stay home, Romney will still get the majority of those who do vote.
Look at my post on florida registration. By numbers alone. Dems will not show up like 2008.
Right. Mitt can’t win without two out of these three: FL, VA and OH.
Democrat 354 (44%)
Republican 308 (39%)
Independent or Other 138 (17%)
As everyone knows, Romney needs to improve his messaging. He needs to first debunk Obama’s successful messaging:
1. Republican ideals DID NOT get us here. It was toxic home loans - thanks to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, and 9-11.
2. It doesnt take 4 years to turn around the effects of a recession if the correct policies are in place. Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton (really Newt) all showed us how.
3. Communicate what we knows works.
A good resource for clear messaging I have found on realitybatslast web page.
General observation: I’m in the Bay area, and during the GOP primary, there was a lot of visible support for Paul. Now, I’m noticing a lot of signs, bumperstickers, even the big signs that go on top of cars, for the Libertarian Gary Johnson. In a close race..it could make the differenc, just as Nader cost Gore the election in 2008.
Independents are fleeing Obama and will vote in higher proportions than ‘08 AGAINST Obama. GOP turnout should also eclipse ‘08 levels.
Johnsons vote will be eqauled by the other nuts vote from the green party
How can this poll justify oversampling Dems by 5%?
Ross Perot gave us Clinton. We have to stay together. Romney is our ONLY chance
Because Democrats in Florida have a 5 point advantage in registered voters:
“Are people in Florida nuts?
Does a bear poop in the woods?
Is the Pope Catholic?
Is Obama a Muslim?”
Gosh, you’re four for four this morning!
The poll numbers out of FL are not encouraging. The state seems to be going the same way as Virginia — that is to say, Obama is inching closer to the 50% mark, with Romney close behind, but still, behind. Without Florida, Romney will not win.
Remember these comments from not so long ago...?
“The dog catcher could beat Obama!”
“The DOG could beat Obama!”
“A ham sandwich could beat Obama!”
What the heck happened?
But they dont vote their registration advantage. True turnout will be between R=D to D+2. Even 2008, their registration advantage swelled to D+7 but their turnout advantage was much less.
“Florida is going GOP.”
Jes’ like Virginia and Ohio, right?
Actually very encoraging. You should read the article so you can understand.
You should check out rasmussen numbers this am. That should cheer u up or depress you if you’re a dem. Can’t tell with you
Libs can’t afford the gas to get to the polls.
Yes. But the point is that the pollster can claim some methodology for being a Democrat shill.
FReepers and bloggers have become adept at applying REASONABLE interpretations of slanted polling data.
where did you find that? could you please provide a link
True I hadn’t followed your point. They’re using simple registration numbers to determine turnout when that’s not accurate at all. Mason-dixon should know better
Of course Mason-Dixon knows better. It’s called an unreported campaign contribution.