Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
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That 14% black is getting pretty close to the number that is needed for the logjam to break. When blacks in their own communities start to fearlessly support a Republican, the Dems are cooked. Something on the order of 20-25% is probably near that threshhold.
You got it :o)
Now I know who to ask if I want to be all cool and smart by saying things in Latin!
Excellent points...well written.
Independents were 29% in 2008 and their ranks have grown considerably since then (where do you think the D’s have gone?). Any model that has I’s at less than 30% would be highly suspect.
Furthermore, Romney is getting a bigger % of R’s than Obama is of D’s. Romney is also getting 2 percentage points more of D’s than Obama is of R’s.
All in all, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to suggest something like a D+7.
O B A M A P H O N E S
sidebar to the thread, but for that reason, I would support a ruling that those who work for the Federal government should not be allowed a vote.
Still too tight.
When only a Presidential "Face Palm" will suffice.
Ha..he can't even manage a decent "face palm"....send him back to Harvard to retake FacePalm 101
I'm good with allowing them 3/5's .
Using a D+7 model (37D/30R/33I):
Romney 37(0.1)+30(0.89)+33(0.54) ~49
Obama 37(0.88)+30(0.8)+33(0.38) ~48
Assuming the I number is close to being right, I would suggest to me that Ras is in the ballpark of D+6 to D+8.
Thanks for doing that. Sounds reasonable. Wait until the more accurate numbers get mixed in!
Time for me to go on to my day. Y’all have fun here!
If my reverse-engineering using profit_guy’s internals is correct, Rasmussen’s party ID breakdown is:
39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I
Rasmussen is using a +5D model.
I can’t imagine only 26.6% independents. That is considerably lower than 2008, while the ranks of independents has grown since then.
An interesting polling note is that Rasmussen has Romney almost tied in the Electoral College, if toss ups are allocated by the current polls - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
Safe or likely Romney totals 181. Safe or likely Obama totals 237. There are no states that “lean” either way. In the 120 “toss up” EV states, Obama leads for NV’s 6 votes, WI’s 10 votes, and OH’s 18 votes. That takes Obama to 271 over Romney’s 267, a very narrow loss for America - on polls that in many cases are pre-debate.
As has been posted on FR lately, response rates are way down. Only 9% response rate where it had been 38% in 2008 previously.
IMO, pollsters are overplaying their hand this election, and flooding too many people with too many calls, to the point where they have alienated a large segment. The people who do have time are, speculatively, those who lean Democrat.
But, Rasmussen has to assume by the rules of polling science that the people who do answer his calls are still representative of the voting segment, because it is impossible to prove the makeup of people who won’t be polled.
Obama is still slightly up in the electoral count on Rasmussen, but the gap has closed considerably.
It looks like about 271 Obama and 267 Romney when all toss-ups are given to the current state leader per Rasmussen’s numbers.
Obama is ahead in Nevada 6, Wisconsin 10, and Ohio 18.
If he loses any of those, he loses the election. If he wins all 3, he wins the election.
The most likely Romney win will be in Ohio, but it will also be the costliest.
This is only based on the numbers Rasmussen is showing now. I imagine Rasmussen will come out with new numbers on those states based on post-debate polling.
I think the people who do still support Obama are hoping that he had just one bad night. Romney put Obama on the floor but has not yet delivered the finishing blow.
IMO, Romney has tied the race. If Romney delivers another KO punch, a landslide may really happen.
It really is an unspeakable tragedy - to see what the so-called "caring" liberals have done to our black people.
It's not going to be an easy road but the Republicans have nothing to lose by offering them a more positive and uplifting message. Show them how their lives can be improved by getting off welfare and entering the workforce or starting their own businesses. Then make it happen through serious welfare reform and making it financially more attractive to work a job (or start a business) than to collect a government welfare check.
This means that Republicans are going to have to stop walking on eggshells and tell it like it really is. Sure, they will at first get hammered by the Al Sharpton types and the media. But a lot of black people will respond to such a message and slowly, the Republicans and conservatism will win more and more of the black vote because they will offer a better way of life.
We already have some great black leaders on our side of the fence. Allen West, Thomas Sowell, Herman Cain, Condoleeza Rice, Clarence Thomas, JC Watts, to name a few. Let's build on that.
As a conservative, I'm tired of seeing the black people being written off and it pains me to see the way of life so many of them are forced into by misguided liberal policies.
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