Poll: Obama has edge; enthusiasm favors Romney before final debate GOP voters more energized

The Washington Times ^ | 10/22/12 | Stephen Dinan

[CA Conservative]

DELRAY BEACH, Fla. — Mitt Romney’s first debate bounce has evaporated and President Obama once again has taken a slim lead in The Washington Times/Zogby Poll released Sunday night — though the survey showed Mr. Romney’s backers are far more energized about him than the president’s backers are about their candidate. Mr. Obama leads 49.7 percent to 47.3 percent over Mr. Romney, the Republican nominee, with 3 percent undecided.

[CA Conservative]

Since this poll is from Zogby, I understand why it is soo wrong. What I can't understand is why RCP is including it in their average - they haven't used a Zogby poll all year that I can see. And why use this instead of the ARG poll showing Romney up 2? Are they just trying to keep the race close?

[tatown]

Something weird is seriously going on at RCP. They use ARG polls all the time and NEVER use Zogby. There is obviously an effort to keep this race close.

[SamAdams76]

Zogby? Now that’s a blast from the past. I think this is the first time this election cycle that I even heard his name mentioned.

[GilGil]

It all boils down to the repub/dem sampling. Without that this poll means nothing.

[pabianice]

Zogby is an unapologetic anti-Semite and America-hater. At least he’s come-lately honest about it. His politics were first revealed in 2000; since then he has not tried to hide them. Look at 2008 and 2010; his “polling” was off about D+7 from the actual results.

[ExTexasRedhead]

Let them track this as it pertains to Bam:

Justice with Judge Jeanine opening comments about Benghazi attack (last night’s show on FNC):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lleTlFdJJ38

CIA Operatives speak about Libya Massacre

http://www.therightscoop.com/former-cia-officials-say-no-way-wh-didnt-know-benghazi-was-a-terrorist-attack-even-during-the-attack/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rX1uukcLdd8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNCkhYSMko8

[John W]

And with it it probably means less than nothing.

[Red Badger]

....and hopefully the last.
Zogby is a pro-Obama pro-Muslim pollster........

[CA Conservative]

Something weird is seriously going on at RCP. They use ARG polls all the time and NEVER use Zogby. There is obviously an effort to keep this race close.

I have seen this in a few other cases on RCP recently. For example, RCP was regularly using the Susquehannah poll in their average for PA. However, they have refused to include the last Susquehannah poll that showed Romney up by 4 in PA in the average.

[Arthurio]

Is there some reason why everyone wants to post every single new poll as “Breaking News”? Particularly for a Zogby poll?

I’ve posted many routine polls and then someone comes in after the fact and puts in the “breaking” tag on it.

[GilGil]

Yes! These polls are so erratic. Think Romney will win 55/45

[tatown]

Zogby had Obama winning among NASCAR fans just a couple of weeks ago!! Lol

[pabianice]

RCP used to be unbiased. In this election they’ve been turned toward The Dark Side.

[ScottfromNJ]

RCP seems to be laying on its own special sauce for this election .

[Skulllspitter]

Zogby - crack for the weak

[ameribbean expat]

Once caught playing with one’s poll in full public view, one tends not to be invited back into polite company.

[Skulllspitter]

For example, RCP was regularly using the Susquehannah poll in their average for PA. However, they have refused to include the last Susquehannah poll that showed Romney up by 4 in PA in the average.

I read the latest Susquehannah poll was commissioned by the PA GOP, so that may be why.

[andy58-in-nh]

This Zogby poll has some truly bizarre, counter-intuitive results. In spite of only favoring Democrats by 2 points (37-35), it purports to show Obama now leading among men and only slightly ahead among women. And yet, Romney is shown to lead significantly among Independent voters. A very odd sample, and a small one (800 LV) at that.

[apillar]

Zogby? Now that’s a blast from the past. I think this is the first time this election cycle that I even heard his name mentioned.

Back in the mid 1990's Zogby was considered one of the best pollsters around, and was even featured on Rush Limbaugh's show several times. However, after 9/11 he bought into the George W. Bush is EVIL and want's to destroy the Muslim world line (he's of Arab decent). He started moving more and more left, and his polls started to move with him, becoming little more than pro-democrat push polls. He pretty much lost all credibility he had left when he predicted Kerry was going to beat Bush by 6% in his final 2004 poll. In 2008 he was dead last in accuracy again, predicting Obama would win by 11% (he won by six). (By the way, Pew and Rasmussen were tied for the best accuracy in 2008)

[FredZarguna]

Are they just trying to keep the race close?

Yes.

Zogby. Really?

For (unfortunately not) the last time: averaging polls together as RCP does, DOES NOT make them more accurate. It is simply a form of hedging. It guarantees that their result is less likely to be wildly wrong. But it also means that they are less likely to be correct.

Why? Because the polls employ different sampling methodologies and different models. It is a mathematically rigorous fact that one pollster is going to be closer to the final result than all of the others, it is also logically inescapable that one pollster is going to be farther away. Averaging those two polls together cannot POSSIBLY make the outcome closer to the correct one.

What makes things worse is that RCP (as far as I can tell) has no consistent rationale for which polls to include and which polls to exclude; so they can't even claim to be using reliability as a criterion for inclusion. Including John Zogby is a near certainty that they're averaging in one of the worst track records in polling. [It's even possible that they will exclude the best predictor.] All this horse race stuff is like the run up to the Superbowl, where we hear endless proganostications and pointless speculations from idiots, most of whom are wrong. We are going to play the game soon, and I have a safe prediction: after the last vote is counted, John Zogby is going to have an even poorer reputation than he has right now.