Virginia Early Voting Tallies Show Trouble for Obama (Cook Political Report data)

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report | 10/24/12 | TonyInOhio

[TonyInOhio]

This is techinically a vanity post, but newsworthy, all the same. Dave Wasserman is one of the head number crunchers at Cook Political Report, and he has been tweeting results from Virigina's early voting period. The numbers look good for Romney and very, very bad for Obama. Here are a several of his tweets with the raw data:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/

Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama

3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

In VA's McCain localities, early vote = 95,744 (vs 80,881 at this pt in '08). VA's Obama localities = 152,084 (vs 145,673 in '08)

Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote

[jmaroneps37]

Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C’ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote” This fits perfectly with what O’Keefe’s guy caught Pat Moran (Jim's son) saying in his voter fraud youtube. When you watch pay attention to his remarks about low Black enthusiasm at 13:00 and again at 19:30. It is 26:55 long but worth the time.This should kill Obama & Kaine as well because their campaign HQs are in the same office.
Let's see the Washington Post ignore this - I hope they try.

[TonyInOhio]

More from Dave Wasserman:

Virginia Early Vote (con't): Obama drop-off just half of the equation. Let's take a look at the top 25 localities with an increase...

Coal-heavy SW VA in Top 10 early vote surges: 5) Dickenson (+66.8%) 6) Buchanan (+63.6%), 10) Bland (+47.4%). Apathy in '08, anger in '12.

[GraceG]

I wonder if Valerie Jarrett is going to follow the worst family to Hawaii?

[MissMagnolia]

Charlottesville/UVA - a bastion of conservatism. </sarcasm>

[Red Steel]

5 to 10 years from now, Jarrett and Axelrod will be running Obama’s campaign to be president of Kenya. Hawaii is their jumping off point.

[Wingy]

One worrying thing. I live in a VERY Republican district in a suburb of Richmond, VA. Twice this week we have had doorknockers come to every house in our cul de sac, clipboard in hand, asking if we need a ride to the polls "so we can get out the Obama vote". The disturbing part of this is that we have never seen a Republican sweep of our neighborhood.

Now be aware, we are going to vote Romney but where is the GOTV for the R's?

[Hawthorn]

>> those extra votes from Dem counties could all be Romney votes <<

Good point. Moreover, my household can report that at least two of the early votes in Arlington County were for the GOP!

[TonyInOhio]

More:

VIRGINIA: In-person absentee voting UP 29.8% in McCain localities vs. this pt in '08, up just 7.7% in Obama localities. Hmm...

VIRGINIA: Mail-in absentee voting up 12.9% in McCain localities vs. this pt in '08, up 2.5% in Obama localities. Slightly smaller gap.

[mwl8787]

Which is why Romney needs to accelerate in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan - contingencies.

Move in, move the needle, force Obama to react — and then drain him dry.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

[Suz in AZ]

Maybe Hawaii won’t allow extradition...

[rwfromkansas]

A Facebook friend in Florida doing the same. Has virtually stopped talking about the campaign on Facebook compared to a few months ago.

[Defender3]

FWIW - I early voted in Stafford County yesterday, #1648. There were about 10 other people in the office voting or waiting. Unfortunately, they did not appear to be Romney supporters. Elderly and handicapped with a “coordinator” with them helping them vote. I sure it was legit, but I hope my 10 minutes was not indicative of the GOTV effort we're up against since our side never seems to be as aggressive.

[republicangel]

OFA has called my house twice lately. I don’t answer any calls anymore unless it’s family. I think they are trying to get ahold of my daughter. LOL She is more conservative than me, college degree, and one of those unemployed. I bet she would give them an earful LOL

[Defender3]

A bit of semantics, but I voted "early"(in-person absentee) yesterday at my County Courthouse using the standard 2012 ballot. I did have to fill out a form stating why I needed to vote early, but there are about 18 categories, one being out-of-town business, which applied.

[cgbg]

Charlie Cook has been slow to share that this is going to be a big Republican year.

He will probably show the real numbers the day before the election just so he dosen’t look like a complete idiot.

[Belle22]

Yea, baby! I just voted early in Loudoun County so that I can be a poll watcher on Election Day. Can’t wait to have a president who takes security briefings every 9/11 - instead of going on “Pimp with a Limp!”

[StAnDeliver]

I think a 40 oz and a blunt is their jumping off point but whatever....

[NOVACPA]

Correct. He’s all over NOVA radio.

Most of the readio ads are focused on abortion, helathcare, and feature female voiceovers