Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
Click on the link below for the analysis.
There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney.
It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results.
I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political analysts from NRO who passionately argue that:
a. We have closed the gap in early polling and will have an easier time overcoming the D+ advantage on election day
b. Due to a D advantage in early polling, likely voter screens are contaminated, and therefore we should ignore the polls.
While (a) sounds like a reasonable argument, (b) sounds like denial. State level polling (which I believe more than passionate entreaties by earnest Freepers) is still not showing R&R in a comfortable position there.
Without Ohio, it becomes a dice roll, other polls showing close races in WI, MI, PA, NV notwithstanding, since we cannot bank on those states.
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The state by state picture is very different, and points to 0 leading in EVs. Talk of a R&R landslide is dangerous and counter-productive at this point.
Comments?
The “broken glass” gap is worth 5 points for Romney from coast to coast.
People will crawl over broken glass to vote the African communist back to Chicago, while support for Ubama is mostly lukewarm.
No way do any of the polls account for this.
We really need Ohio
Or the planets will have to line up otherwise
Bigtime and Wisconsin becomes a must have
I listened in depth to a Barone feed tonight
Mike suspects some polls for Democratic weight
But he also suspects Gallup and Rass nationals due to robocalling and only a 9% reply rate
He sees Ohio a toss up as of this afternoon
And fears Romney could win popular but lose EV
One thing..... many roads to victory for the half tropical pretender
But only one for Romney....he must win either Ohio or Wisconsin
Can’t lose both without Pennsylvania
bttt
Governor Kasich says Romneys internals have him ahead by a small amount. I say Ohio goes Romney.
>> Oh kiss my ass.
I can’t, when you’re hiding under the bed like that, nancy.
>> I am concerned because of MASSIVE fraud activities
So I’ll ask YOU what I asked the hand-wringing OP — what are you going to DO about it besides throwing off waves of negativism and anxiety? Anything?
You hide under the bed and quiver. I’m going to go forward in faith.
It’s hard to believe the majority of voters in Ohio are morons.
If they are, it’s a good state to set up a scam artist business and laugh all the way to the bank.
That is what evil looks like - and it’s ugly! The eyes are the mirror of the soul. Hopefully, Rudy will be the next AG and go after these anti-Americans POS!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.