Posted on 10/29/2012 7:38:58 AM PDT by BCrago66
Glenn Reynolds (AKA Instapundit) has written about the possibility of a “preference cascade” favoring Romney; it’s the phenomenon originally observed when dictators rapidly lose support, practically overnight, as those who silently hate the regime discover that they’re not alone; they’re actually the majority, and it’s socially acceptable to oppose the regime in power.
That’s why public dissemination of these poll results - and this is the first Ohio poll with Romney in the lead - is important. Formerly “independent” folks start to feel comfortable coming out against Obama, knowing that they’re not isolated; they cannot be branded as freaks or racists; they are, in fact, the American majority.
The first - not the last - poll showing Romney leading in Ohio. That exactly what we needed right now.
Polls showing Romney down always show up in breaking news or front page news. At least give this the same visibility. Trying to depress FR I’m noticing
Smoke that, Nate.
Here's the article you mentioned about Glenn Reynolds and the "preference cascade"....
"We're starting to see a preference cascade, in Romney's direction."
Disaffected Democrats as well. Another example of this is the endorsement by the DesMoines Register. It gives these people permission to abandon Obama in favor of Romney.
Nice!
Nice!
Things are moving in the right direction.
My theory on people/states that have a good batting average is that
This is encouraging. Let me add some more encouragement to your day.
We all know that the trends look great for Romney, but we’re all concerned about these stubborn Ohio polls that we all suspect are skewed. But, there are a lot of them showing Obama in the lead, and that’s discouraging. So, understanding that everything else looks good, let’s see why these polls really say...because they just don’t seem to add up to what we see elsewhere.
I’ve taken 5 polls for which I could get concrete data. These are the recent polls by ARG, PPP, Gravis, CNN and Survey USA. Here’s what I found.
They oversampled democrats by 7 on average
They gave Obama a 2.8% lead over Romney
This means that Obama MUST HAVE at least a Democrat plus 4.2% better turnout just to break even. In 2008 is was about 5%
BUT, THAT’S NOT THE WHOLE STORY:
They showed an average independent advantage for Romney by +8. The average percent of independents making up the total voters was just over 25%, so basically, the advantage to Romney is +2.
They also showed an average party-line plus cross-over vote (Democrats voting for Romney) by a 2.6% advantage.
So, this means that these polls show that Democrats must have an 8.8% Democrat advantage JUST TO BREAK EVEN.
OK, so you’re still thinking...but, there are so many polls that favor Obama. To that I reply...these calculations are taken only from these same polls that are bothersome to you. Look at all the other indicators which show Romney doing far better. For example, Republicans almost always do better than the national average in Ohio. Romney’s above 50% in some major polls. Swing states are overwhelmingly supporting Romney. There’s so much more. Why let these petty little polls bother you? Have faith, my friends.
Everything seems to coming together nicely.
Interesting internals in the poll. Rasmussen reports that 32% of the expected electorate has already voted and Obama has a large lead among those early voters:
“Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters.”
However, on an earlier thread (that was eventually pulled because it lacked a link to the source)Ravi noted that one expects about 5.4 to 5.6 million votes. Until now early total voting and absentees only accounts for 1 million votes, ie at most 18.5%.
Thus, Rasmussen’s poll is, unless the turn-out this year will be lower than 3.2 millions, highly skewed with respect to those who have voted early.
Given that part of the sample gives Obama a large lead, the conclusion must be that (everything else the same) a correct sample would have shown Romney in an even larger lead.
PS: I quoted Ravi’s figures from memory. Hopefully he will come by and correct me if necessary.
Sorry. I got interrupted mid post. Anyway - the theory is that they are right all the time because they go with the final polls.
As of 10/27, 1.6 million voters have requested absentee ballots. 1 million have submitted ballots/early voted in toto. I expect turnout to be 5.6 to 5.7 million. Others may disagree. So 1/5.6 is 18%. 1.6/5.6 is 28.5%. So both numbers are less than the 32% who told rasmussen they VOTED. 1.6 million are ABOUT TO VOTE of which 1 million have actually VOTED. Key distinction.
Super Interesting News from Rasmussen!
He just released an poll to his members that is a 7 day poll.
Some highlights!!
D+4 Poll D/R/I = 40/36/24
Taken from Oct 22-28
This is his daily 7 day sample at 500 LV daily
So 3500 people
White/Black/Other 74/13/13
Congress Republican/Congress Democrat: 46/43
Gov Romney/President Obama: 50/47 (expanded sample)
The Governor leads independents by 13
President total approval: 48
Presidential Approval Index: -12
Right Track/Wrong Track: 39/57
hi Software:
I enjoy your posts. Was this rasmussen poll for the state of ohio or the country? I have platinum membership and my national poll shows 49-47 Romney, not 50-47
Hi Tulane,
Thanks!
This is for the entire country. This is a 7 day sample, instead of the 3 day sample
On your platinum membership, look at the CROSSTABS of the Congressional vote preference article where the R/D split is 46/43
You will find a ton of good data there
With a sample size of 3500, the MOE goes down to about 1.5% for any good pollster
Rasmussen: Ohio: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Poll taken 10/28/12)
In related news: A dump truck of Prozac was seen backing into MSNBC.
Pray for America
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