Louisiana Senate: Cassidy (R) 44%, Landrieu (D) 40%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | January 30, 2014

[Clintonfatigued]

Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu runs slightly behind Republican challenger Bill Cassidy in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Louisiana.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters finds Cassidy, a U.S. congressman, with 44% support to Landrieu’s 40%. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

[Clintonfatigued]

This looks promising. I look forward to other polls confirming these findings.

[Viennacon]

It’s very promising. Any candidate needs 50% to win outright. I just wish Rob Maness was doing better.

[truth_seeker]

Margin of Error for this sample is 4.5% (MOE)

[Plummz]

The same poll also shows state Rep. Paul Hollis is tied 42%-42% with Landrieu at this point, even though 40% don’t know who Hollis is.

[deport]

Louisiana Candidates

U.S. SENATOR:

Mary Landrieu (D)* - (Campaign Site)
Don Reaux (D) - Electrical Engineer & '80/'04 Presidential Candidate
Bill Cassidy (R) - Congressman, Ex-State Sen. & Physician
Paul Hollis (R) - State Rep., Businessman & Numismatist
Jeff Landry (R) - Ex-Congressman & Attorney
Rob Maness (R) - Retired USAF Officer
Brannon McMorris (Libertarian) - Electrical Engineer

Interesting to see how many actually make the race.

Filing is Aug. 22, 2014,
Primary Nov. 4, 2014,
runoff if needed Dec. 6, 2014.

[deport]

Some info on Campaign finances for the LA Senate Race.

http://www.theadvertiser.com/article/20140131/NEWS01/301310021/Landrieu-leads-Senate-candidates-funds

[Terry L Smith]

I find this very good, in the face of television adverts from a subversive organization named “senatemajoritypac” running nothing but lies about Cassidy, all over USANetwork, and I’m sure others, here in Louisiana.

According to a story by “Daddy” Landrieu, in “The Caucus”, he is still pulling political strings to make sure that ‘the blonde from the chocolate city’ Mary Landrieu gets her re-election, and a certain Mr. Carville is mentioned, as well.

Good ol’ Mary took a $300 million dollar bribe, “for the State of LA, of course”, in treturn for her yes vote on Obamacare.

[tanknetter]

It’s very promising. Any candidate needs 50% to win outright. I just wish Rob Maness was doing better.

Worth reading

To summarize, since the late 1980s its been accepted conventional wisdom that an incumbent polling below 50% near election day is going to lose; that they haven't made the case for their reelection and the undecided votes will end up breaking in favor of the challenger.

The article deconstructs this CW quite a bit, with a helping hand from Nate Silver (ok FRiends, contain your groans and jeers, please). Here's what the article says:

Indeed, Silver's earlier data suggests that the "incumbent rule" is viable even earlier in the cycle than today. In April, he compiled a lengthy list of incumbents' polling data from January to June of 2006, 2008 and 2009. These polls showed that a third of incumbents who polled below 50 percent in polls even at this early time in the cycle went on to lose in the fall, while nearly 2/3 of those below 45 percent lost in November. Only one of the incumbents who was above 50 percent lost: George Allen.

So, basically, even by Nate Silver's standards Moon's little girl is in deep, deep doo-doo. The question is whether Dems will try to pull a Torricelli bait/switch and yank her from the ticket at the last minute and replace with someone who might have a better chance. But is there any Dem in LA at this point who would?

[Plummz]

The Libertarian candidate is a flake. All you need to do to get on the ballot in Louisiana is put up $900. But he’s insisting on doing it the hard way, by gathering x signatures from each CD. He won’t even make the ballot.

[deport]

The Libertarian candidate is a flake.

***************

I don’t know a thing about him but if helps to take a few votes that keeps Landrieu
nder 50% and into a runoff then that is a positive, imo.

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

Boom. Cassidy needs more commercials of Landrieu supporting Obamacare

[RIghtwardHo]

Rasmussens has been horrible for two straight cycles now. I am not feeling good about this one ... for now. Still very early.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Jeff Landry needs to get in. Cassidy is an establishment RINO.

[Impy]

The question is whether Dems will try to pull a Torricelli bait/switch and yank her from the ticket at the last minute and replace with someone who might have a better chance. But is there any Dem in LA at this point who would?

I would say no, there is not.

[COBOL2Java]

I find this very good, in the face of television adverts from a subversive organization named “senatemajoritypac” running nothing but lies about Cassidy, all over USANetwork, and I’m sure others, here in Louisiana.

“senatemajoritypac”? A Rovian org?

[Terry L Smith]

Dear Coboltojava,
Rovian? No way. They make a stink about shutting down the government. They make a stink on cutting food stamps. They put the stink on Republicans, period.

Here is their fishwrap website:

http://www.senatemajority.com/

[murron]

Rob Maness is my guy.

[Sun]

“This looks promising. “

It sure does!

[COBOL2Java]

Thanks! Just wondering. Can’t trust Tokyo Rove.