Skip to comments.Begich continues to hold small leads for reelection
Posted on 02/04/2014 1:12:53 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
PPP's newest Alaska poll finds that Mark Begich continues to lead his potential Republican opponents for reelection by small margins, and that third party candidates could play a spoiler role in helping him win this fall.
Voters are closely divided in their feelings about Begich with 43% approving of the job he's doing to 44% who disapprove. None of his potential Republican opponents have great numbers either though. Mead Treadwell has a 33/31 favorability rating, Dan Sullivan's is 31/35, and Joe Miller is incredibly unpopular with a 16/62 spread.
Begich leads Sullivan 41/37, Treadwell 43/37, and Miller 45/25 in prospective match ups. Third party candidates get anywhere from 7-9% in those match ups, with the Alaskan Independence Party candidate in particular getting a decent amount of support at anywhere from 5-6%. That's splitting the anti-Begich vote and helping him to lead overall, a similar dynamic to what we saw in the Montana Senate race in 2012 when Jon Tester won with less than 50% because the Libertarian candidate pulled so much support.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
This looks promising. Barack Obama’s negative rating in Alaska is 58%. How many of those voters will support a candidate who voted for Obamacare?
Begich is only at 41%....bad news for an incumbant with name recognition.
There are few states more susceptible to being “tricked” by a “third party” than AK.
People in AK look at the personality of the candidate, not so much anything else. Most are really uninformed too, just like their compatriots south of Parallel 49.
If they would re-elect Murkowski on a write-in, I wouldn’t put anything past them.
Todd: call your wife.
Bristol: call your mom.
They’re trying the same thing is South Dakota.
Deceptive poll. I also didn’t see whether or not it was registered voters or likely. I will be very shocked if Begich wins again.
You think anyone will vote for that D-bag Pressler in SD?
I don’t think the democrats are behind the Alaska Independence party. They are just true believer idiots who don’t care if they allow a democrat to win.
Sullivan is polling the best, as we all thought. Miller should drop out.
Looks like Sullivan survived that rape case scandal they tried to spring on him. I favored him from the start. Miller should drop out at this point.
The issue I have in SD is that Rounds is only 7 points ahead because the libertarian pulls in 10%. Obviously 7 points is big, but Rounds should be polling better against a frankly crappy Dem.
The liartarian, not Pressler?
10% is a lot. This liartarian seems like a nobody. Might be a hinky poll.
Kurt Evans. He ran for the Senate in 2002 and took votes from Thune. He dropped out and endorsed Thune but his name stayed on the ballot and he got 3000 votes while Johnson “won” by less than 1000.
Googling him, he entered the race in Sept. There are reports dated December that have him changing his mind and not running.
He’s still listed on poltics1 but has no website.
I’m looking at this PPP poll
A Democrat poll from October commissioned by Weiland’s campaign where they polled “voters.”
Yeah, I don’t put too much stock in it, but I remember being blown away by Rick Berg’s loss in ND last time.
Well if he did indeed quit in December (and it looks like he did), it’s a good thing he did.
He will get two no votes from this very local poll.
However, there were warning bells getting sounded about both him and Rehberg in MT. My sole beef with Rounds is that he should’ve run in 2008.
Yeah, and Weiland is no Heitkamp.
SD doesn’t have much of a farm team for Dems. Weiland is a second tier retread loser. If there is any concern, it’s for how much of a bite the flaky liberal RINO “Independent” Pressler takes (if he sticks around to the general). Might turn out he takes more votes from Weiland than Rounds.
Democrat pollster Tommy Jensen of PPP had to resort to his entire bag of tricks to claim that Begich is still (barely) ahead.
For one thing, they asked questions about each GOP candidate first, and then asked the racehorse question for each candidate as the nominee, thus pushing supporters of a particular candidate to say that they wouldn’t vote for another Republican in the general (e.g., Treadwell supporters, out of perceived loyalty to Treadwell and in hopes that the poll would show Treadwell as running stronger against Begich than would Sullivan, saying they “don’t know” who they’d vote for if Sullivan was the nominee).
And even worse, they included every unknown third-party candidate imaginable, knowing full well that this early in the process they will get a huge number of false answers for those unknown guys, which has the effect of making a result in the low-to-mid-40s for Begich a “lead.” (PPP *always* releases one-on-one results when it’s basically an R vs. D race, but decided not to here: I bet you that the reason is that, even with Jensen’s thumb on the scale, both Sullivan and Treadwell lead Begich when voters are asked if they’d vote for the D, the R or “someone else” and leave it at that.)
Moreover, the sample had a huge number of minority voters (presumably Native Americans), much higher than what one would see in any AK election, much less a non-presidential one.
In conclusion, this is a *devastating* poll for Begich, although I’m sure that he already was aware that his only chance of winning is if Miller (bless his heart) wins the nomination and manages to blow the general again. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as if Miller has a chance of winning the GOP primary against two fairly popular, and fairly conservative, Republicans.
BTW, I supported Miller in 2010 (as almost all conservatives who were paying attention did) because he faced the execrable RINO Lisa Murkowski, and would face a third-tier Democrat in the general, but given his implosion in 2010 and the fact that Begich isn’t a pushover I think that it would be foolish to nominate Miller this time—he really should run for a lower office and build a record before trying for the Senate again.
, as is your conclusion.
My analysis of the poll is a little black box with an X in the middle? : )
Try this one.
i was willing to give joe miller another chance, but he hasn t learned anything. miller is appealing to the paultards. i’m leaning toward sullivan even though mitch mcconnell is counting him as an ally. treadwell has too many pro-murcowski fundraisers in his camp. i agree that tom jensen of ppp is a hack. jensen hid unfavorable polling of the colorado recall to protect dems. ppp polls are in the ball park on election eve, but their polls this early are agenda driven. jensen is doing plenty of polling on unemployment benefits, gun control, and minimum wage. jensen is fishing for issues to attack the gop. i wonder jensen pays his interns minimum wage. lol!
larry pressler is a flake. he lost to tim johnson in 1996 even while dole was winning sd. then pressler endorsed obama. i could see why janklow disliked pressler.
Both Pressler and Janklow are/were execrable. Janklow himself cleared the way for his buddy Daschle to get elected Senator (and Daschle served as a “character witness” at Janklow’s vehicular homicide trial).
New American Crossroads poll in AK shows both Sullivan and Treadwell leading Begich by 47%-41%, but shows Begich trouncing Miller by 51%-32%. http://www.politico.com/morningscore/?hp=l6 I’m not sure that I believe that Miller is down by such a large margin (some Republicans may be embarrassed to say that they’d vote for him), but this is further evidence that, whether we like it or not, Joe Miller has not rehabilitated his image from 2010 and is the one GOP nominee who would pretty much guarantee Begich’s reelection.
BTW, American Crossroads also polled AR, LA, MI, MT, NH and NC, and their results (which also can be found in the above link) are mostly good news.
Direct links to the American Crossroads polls (conducted by Harper):
MT: http://images.politico.com/global/2014/02/06/ac_1401_mt_toplines.html (and the Dem-primary poll results are here: http://images.politico.com/global/2014/02/06/ac_1401_mt_dem_toplines.html)
american crossroads is karl rove’s organization. crossroads spent millions on rehberg, berg, mandel, and mack with no results.
correction- harper polling co. did the polling.
They paid for the polls, but they didn’t conduct them (Harper did).
Daines looks like he’s in good shape. Or rather the MT democrats look like they are in crappy shape.
The rat primary poll has it a tie between Walsh and ex-RINO Bohlinger with a huge undecided.