Posted on 06/13/2014 8:52:57 PM PDT by xzins
All eyes have been on ISIS as the jihadist group, in a matter of days, cut Iraq in half and declared its own state in the cities it captured. With fewer than 10,000 fighters ISIS forced the retreat of the better-armed Iraqi army forces many times its size. Their incredible success on the battlefield has fed into a growing lore about the group: the small band of fanatics that can take down a country. The truth is more basic and it's something ISIS doesn't want to admit--they weren't acting alone.
It wasn't having God on their side that let ISIS conquer Mosul and Tikrit with hardly a fight, analysts say. It was the other Sunni insurgent groups that were there alongside them, unacknowledged partners in the coalition. Those groups have deep organizational roots and were instrumental in the takeover but have been largely overshadowed by ISIS.
The standoff in Iraq isn't between a single militant group and the government. There is a broad coalition of Sunni groups--both nationalist and Islamist--who had been plotting against Iraq's Shia government for years before ISIS's rise provided the chance to strike. ISIS and its partners are unnatural allies. Maintaining their unity was the key to their early success, and is the only way they can hold the ground they have taken, but that incentive may prove to be weaker than the force of their natural hostilities.
"ISIS control in Mosul is contingent on political alliances they have made with the Baathists and the tribal groups," said Brian Fishman, a fellow at the New America Foundation, who has been following ISIS since the group's early days during the Iraq war.
"This alliance marching on Baghdad is not a natural one," Fishman added. "We can understand how it was put together in opposition to the government but what exactly is holding it together, and how sturdy it is, is an open question," he said.
The anonymity of the non-ISIS members in the anti-government faction wasn't by choice. Some have used social media to broadcast their war exploits and document their control of conquered territories. It could be an early sign of fissures in the coalition that beat back Baghdad's army.
If the rebel groups begin fighting against ISIS and each other, even as they remain at war with the government, it could lead to something like Syria's war of all against all. Iraq may not descend into the kind of protracted conflict that has ground up Syria and its people, but the days ahead will invariably be filled with bloodshed.
Hassan Hassan, an analyst at the Delma institute in Abu Dhabi, was one of the first observers to point out ISIS reliance on cooperation with Iraqi insurgent groups.
"Non-ISIS groups played a central role in the takeover," Hassan said.
Tactical details from the past week's offensive are hard to come by. But Hassan says the groups that cooperated with ISIS include: "The Sufi-Baathist militia known as the Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order, which has former members of the Iraqi army during Saddam Hussein's reign. The Al Qaeda-originated Ansar al-Islam, and provisional tribal councils, many of the which are actually front groups for the Naqshbandis," according to Hassan.
The coalition seemed--initially, at least--to have tempered ISIS' severe approach to governance, which traditionally relied on public execution as a staple of justice.
"The involvement of these groups can be felt through the way the fighters treated the local population fairly well, compared to the usual notoriously brutal behavior of ISIS," Hassan said.
It's a point echoed by Fishman. "There has been genuine learning from this organization about how to interface with populations," Fishman said, referring to ISIS' experiences in Iraq and the areas it currently controls in Syria.
Because Mosul fell so quickly, with little fighting from the Iraqi army, the city appears to have been relatively unscathed by the assault that wrested it from government control. With ISIS and other anti-government insurgent factions long entrenched in Mosul they seem to have been able to quickly restore some basic services in the city. One photo captured by Middle East scholar Aymenn al-Tamimi, who collects tweets from Iraqi insurgent groups including ISIS, shows garbage trucks collecting trash in eastern Mosul on Thursday.
For all its genuine learning and operational acuity, ISIS' conception of itself as the embodiment of God's will is hard to reconcile with practical compromise.
The relative moderation evidenced early on may be necessary to maintain the population's support and preserve the coalition, but ISIS has begun to impose its fundamentalist approach.
Already, the group has declared itself the sole authority in Mosul and released a set of religious laws for the people of Nineveh province. The laws laid out are no one's idea of moderate:
•For women, dress decently and wear wide clothes. Only go out if needed. •Our position on Shrines and graves is clear. All to be destroyed basically. •Gatherings, carrying flags (other than that of Islamic State) and carrying guns is not allowed. God ordered us to stay united. •For the police, soldiers and other Kafir institutions, you can repent. We opened special places that will allow you to repent. •No drugs, no alcohol and no cigarettes allowed.
There are more rules on the list, but that gives a pretty good sense of their severity.
Hassan, who has been observing ISIS said, "It is expected that ISIS would try to impose itself, considering that it brands itself as a state and that it alone has the legitimacy to rule."
"The group's propensity for imposing its will regardless of the consequences will likely lead to confrontation and clashes with other groups," he said. "The offensive was planned together but that does not mean the old rivalries will not come up again. It is very likely that rivalry will lead to clashes."
“I have long written here on FR that those 3 people cannot get along and will war against each other. The Brits weren’t real smart after WWI about the way they broke up the Ottoman Empire.”
xzins, this interesting history was provided by fitzy_888 this week to back what you have been posting for a long time re the Sunnis and Shites:
Why the Sunnis and Shites hate and kill each other, courtesy of Fitzy_888 :
This blood feud dates from the beginning of Islam, a tribe that would later be Sunni’s from Syria beheaded Mohammed’s grandson (the Mohammed) and brought his head to Damascus as a trophy. Sunni’s broke the blood line of the prophet, this is why zealous Shiites will kill Syrian Sunni’s with zeal. It dates back to the four caliph, under the fourth successor to Mohammed, Mohammed’s cousin...also his son-in-law. Mohammed’s cousin married Mohammed’s daughter Fatima, their son and heir to the Islamic caliphate was killed by a tribe from present day Syria who would later identify as Sunni.
Iran having a Shiite majority already has military forces fighting ISIS (Sunni) in Syria along side their
proxy Hezzbulah.
“Interesting that the Sunni Saudi Arabian government doesn’t get mentioned.”
The Opecker Princes aka Sunnis have owned Carter and Clinton for decades and the green eco terrorists who hate America.
Now one of their own Sunnis is our Potus.
How can McCain be for bombing the ISIS terrorist when they came from Syria where they were his Freedom Fighter friends? But we are talking about John McCain. Rationality does not apply.
The 3 major people groups are Kurds, Sunnis, and Shias. The Assyrian Christians are a 3rd, but their numbers are so small that any homeland they might dream of will be a “better city whose builder and maker is God.”
The Brits did a terrible job after WWI. The Kurds will not back down. They’ve been persecuted too long not to seize this opportunity.
Ping to #44.
I agree with your post, Grampa Dave. The enmity between Sunni and Shiite goes all the way back to the early days of Islam.
Although I certainly agree that nobama is muslim, from what we can see he is more aligned with the shites and Iran.
He may have indeed given a wink and nod to these ISIS folks, but with the endgame thinking it will give Iran an excuse to invade and conquer Iraq.
Regardless, its mighty sweet to see them doing a great job of massacring one another. Keep up the good work!
“How can McCain be for bombing the ISIS terrorist when they came from Syria where they were his Freedom Fighter friends? But we are talking about John McCain. Rationality does not apply.”
Isn’t it amazing that ABCNNBCBS, the Compost, NY and LA Slimes and other left wing mediots haven’t pointed the savages McAinal was with and praising are the same animals beheading Iraqis?
Well that about says it all. Obama released the ISIS leader who now is launching an Islamist Caliphate right before our eyes in the country we spent may thousand lives to quell.
The Press will not be able to shield him from this when more brave Americans return from Iraq in body bags trying to turn back the new Islamist Government that has risen from the choices directly made by Obama.
“Iraq will then have a 3 part dividing: Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia regions of the country.”
So old Joe Biden was right then folks.
As I’ve pointed out a few times today, that idea was discussed on Free Republic long before joe biden got ahold of it. FR archives can be checked to verify it.
We were tri-partite before balkanization of Iraq was cool.
Looks like the al-Baghdadi guy is going to force it.
They will need de-militarized zones for the new three states.
I say let the UN enforce them.
Jacob Siegel, shilling for Iran in The Daily Beast:
> There is a broad coalition of Sunni groups—both nationalist and Islamist—who had been plotting against Iraq’s Shia government for years before ISIS’s rise provided the chance to strike.
Utter BS.
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