Cruz could win ugly (Saturbray)

www.braylog.com ^ | 3/28/15 | bray

[bray]

Matthew 3:3 For this is he that was spoken of by the prophet Esaias, saying, The voice of one crying in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the Lord, make his paths straight.

What if Ted Cruz could win the General election and everything the experts know about politics is wrong? What if you don’t have to choose a candidate that mirrors the Dem selection and Americans are not as liberal as the media claims it is? The reason these questions are never asked or answered is that conservative voters have been shamed into a corner so they will never give their true answer to a pollster or members of the media. They don’t want to be attacked so they stay silent.

Before the last election here in Oregon we had a golden opportunity to win a Senate seat from whacky Wyden and some of us conservatives wanted a pro-life rock solid choice to take it to the Dems. Unfortunately just like the national elections all of the smart people in the Party told us we needed to nominate a moderate who was the darling of the media. She was the Jeb/George Bush of candidates who was both attractive and pro-choice, homosexual marriage, immigration and a woman brain surgeon, a shoe in to trick liberal Oregon.

We had all of the pundits falling all over themselves with articles in the NY Times, Washington Post and even a visit from Georgie Will letting us know how cutting edge she was. Here we had a woman who had done prenatal brain surgery who refused to say she was pro-life. What a perfect platform to point out the tragedy of losing a life, not to mention the damage it does to the woman who realizes days later she killed her own baby and all the issues that go with this tragedy. Nope, it could not be mentioned because she was going to get all those women’s votes.

Monica could have used her unique position to validate all of the pro-life people even if she did not have the courage to make that stand herself, but she never did. Rather, the managers from the East Coast told her to endorse homosexual marriage and walk a fine line on the abortion issue. She ended up losing by over thirty points as her campaign melted into a confused soup thanks to the Party brain trust. When you have no principles or moral values how can you ask anyone to follow you.

This is what the pundits are telling the Repubs to do once more. Try not to rock the vote and appeal to those switchover Dems since that is where they say the elections are won. In reality after studying the data, this is where the elections are lost as the switchover Dem is a myth, he doesn’t exist. The myth is promoted by the managers and pundits who get paid the same no matter what the outcome so they can keep face by losing gracefully while snacking on Brie and Chablis at their opponent’s galas.

Here is the truth of elections nothing matters with the message to the middle. The commercials do not change their minds and neither does the media. Both have been programmed out of their lives so those dollars the managers love spending are wasted especially down the stretch. Phone calls are basically a waste of time to change minds. Basically all of the noise that is made during a campaign is just that and not a single Dem voter actually voted for the candidate. Unfortunately thousands of Repubs did not vote at all by being insulted by their own Party.

Here is why Cruz is the best choice if he is legal to run. I suspect he is since he has argued in front of the Supreme Court numerous times. Compared to the rest of the candidates in the likely field he is farthest on the Right. His stands against Obamacare and the budget were epic and his oratory skills are off the charts. It will be a surprise if he does not blow the other candidates away unless you are a Democrat or a moderator, which is redundant. The Punditocracy will be uncomfortable with him since they have to explain much of what he believes.

His being farthest to the Right helps him tremendously in two ways. One is this is where the strongest and most refined conservative dialogue is articulated. This is where the leaders are developed who can explain what it is and where he wants to take them. The more you move to the middle by definition you move into more and more followers. The middle half of the spectrum are people who do not make decisions and simply follow whichever leader is willing to lead. They will follow Cruz before they will follow a weak kneed liberal. If we pick a weak kneed conservative who acts like a Dem they will vote for the real Dem like they did against Romney/McCain.

The bigger reason for him to occupy this end of the spectrum is this is where the activists live who do all the work. If you activate them they will not only vote for you they will bring anywhere from two to twenty votes with them. Repubs have a huge disadvantage on people willing to put their lives on the line even if they have the time which they don’t.

Not only will they not do the campaign work for you, if you insult them and their conservative lifestyle they will not even vote. They are insulted daily by the major media and pundiots so when a candidate agrees with the insults they say fine and drop the ballot in the garbage. This is something Ted Cruz will not do and will bring those conservatives out in force.

When it comes to elections the only thing that matters is making sure your people come out to vote and keeping as many of their ballots out of the garbage as possible. The DC groupthink is going to say this is nonsense and the only way to get those votes out is getting someone who will not offend the soccer moms and stay one onionskin to the right of the Dem. The dirty little secret is moderate women are the ultimate follower looking for someone to follow and give their children the best chance to succeed. The managers get paid whether this is right or wrong as do the pundits so following the same well worn path allows them to keep their jobs and enjoy the liberal social life. The other path is much more difficult and dirty which is how you win ugly rather than lose gracefully. Cruz could get an ugly win, just like Reagan did.

Pray America is waking

[bray]

Yes, we call it Fraud by Mail, but it is a two edged sword. It gives us more opportunity to get our voters out.

[SoConPubbie]

They were the product of a WWII generation that is no longer with us. And gone is that generation’s work ethic, moral values and common sense.

The GOP will never see a map like that again. Best we can hope for is to regain CO, OH, FL and NC.

And what empirical evidence backs that up?

Let me throw some anecdotal evidence at you:

1. This country is now solidly Pro-Life, during Reagan's time, it was not
2. Somewhere around 50% of the electorate does not vote in Presidential election.

A large portion of the 50% is conservatives and independents that hate the wishy-washiness of the GOP.

Yea, the Reagan WWII generation is dying off, but there is more than enough Korea, Vietnam, Iraq era conservatives that have come along after them to make up the difference.

Quit with the Negative Waves Moriarty!

[Enterprise]

Just win baby!

I have a small hope that Cruz might be the ambush candidate regarding the "hispanic" vote. Hispanics just might vote in numbers far stronger for Cruz than the Democrats are expecting.

[marktwain]

“Why run a weak liberal Republican when those who are middle of the road will vote for the Democrat every time.”

I do not think you are correct about the “middle of the road” vote.

But why would they vote for a weak liberal Republican when they can get a full strength liberal backed by the media?

Give them a real choice with a rock solid, articulate conservative, and lots will vote for the Conservative.

[bray]

You also need to point out that 58% of this country is still against abortion under any circumstances. This is a huge untapped resource that always gets painted the other direction.

People would vote pro-life if they had the opportunity. Even the pro-abortion people understand the moral stand.

[marktwain]

“You also need to point out that 58% of this country is still against abortion under any circumstances. This is a huge untapped resource that always gets painted the other direction.”

Yes, and there are untapped supermajorities who are against amnesty and support a controlled border.

Another supermajority wants Obamacare repealed.

Another supermajority wants a sane tax code.

Another supermajority wants national reciprocity on CCW and supports the second amendment.

Cruz can hit homeruns with all of these.

The elites have been governing against the will of the people on all of these issues.

[txhurl]

We also need 20% or more of our side to lie to pollsters.

[SkiKnee]

I'm proud to state, here and now, that I've just made a very small donation to the Cruz campaign. This is the first time I've done that since my Libertarian activist days, over 20 years ago. I sincerely wish I could have made a larger contribution, but I am a man of modest means.

I intend to make more.

Cruz! For the Republic!!!

[American Constitutionalist]

Yes, that’s the message I was trying to say, you said it more eloquently.

[bray]

Remember the story of the widow’s mite?

[stephenjohnbanker]

Cruz

Control

[marron]

When you have no principles or moral values how can you ask anyone to follow you.

That will be GOP's epitaph.

For me, its Cruz. I will accept no substitutes.

[Caipirabob]

"Most right wing" would put Ted Cruz squarely in the center.

[marktwain]

You and me both, brother. I was a Libertarian activist for 30 years. Then I realized how the Libertarians were most often providing the margin of victory for “Progressives”, candidates that were always much more statist than the Republican that was defeated. I never saw it go the other way. We *always* got a more statist candidate elected when the Libertarians were a significant factor.

The excuse that the Libertarians “pull votes” from both parties simply does not stand up to the empirical evidence. The Libertarians have simply become a spoiler vote to get “Progressives” elected where they otherwise would not be.

The last case that I recall is in Montana, where Governor Bullock (D) was elected with a 1.5% margin. The Libertarian candidate took nearly 4% of the vote.

I think it happened last time in Virginia as well, but I do not have the numbers handy.

[cookcounty]

You are correct. I still think that when one candidate does not reach 50% +1, there should be a runoff between the top two. That would help the Libertarians to grow their party without damaging the chances of the next-most-libertarian GOP candidates in the near term. It’s one area where I actually think the French know what they are doing, they do all their elections this way.

But then, sadly, Libertarians are not good at long-term strategizing.

[Salvation]

**When it comes to elections the only thing that matters is making sure your people come out to vote and keeping as many of their ballots out of the garbage as possible.**

Amen.

[bray]

There is a large percentage of Mexicans who are offended by amnesty. They had to do it the hard way and are not ready to share with some freeloaders.

[nascarnation]

Here’s the difference.

California 1970 Reagan +8
California 2014 Moonbeam +20

It’s a whole new America.

[duffee]

“I liked it lot better when we were BLUE and the Commie-Dems were RED.

democrats and media didn’t like the jokes about how it was appropriate that Republicans were “True Blue” and democrats were “RED”.

[txhurl]

I think Cruz is going to pull way more than 40% of the latino vote, more like 50-60%.