Posted on 03/14/2016 9:16:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
It's not impossible that Donald Trump finishes in third place in Ohio. The latest Ohio polls show a barn-burner between John Kasich and Trump, but they also show a distinctive Ted Cruz surge in the past 10 days.
Snapshot
Six pollsters have surveyed Ohio Republicans in March. RealClearPolitics averages the last four, and derives an average that shows Kasich up 35.3 percent, two points ahead of Trump. Ted Cruz's average over those four polls is 20 percent. Rubio is in single digits in all four polls and will finish fourth in Ohio.
One of four polls (PPP) shows Trump leading. Two show a Kasich lead, and the CBS/YouGov poll shows a 33 to 33 tie. Cruz is in the teens in most polls but CBS has him at 27 percent.
Trend
Kasich shows very little movement. In five of the six surveys this month, he's been between 32 percent and 35 percent.
The only significant movement suggested by these polls is a migration of voters from Trump to Cruz over the course of this month. In the first three polls of March, Trump averaged 39 percent. In the three more recent polls he averages below 32 percent.
In the first three polls, Cruz hovered at 15 or 16 percent. Since then, he's scored 19 percent, 19 percent, and now 27 percent. Even if that 27 percent is overstated, it's hard not to posit a Cruz climb. Splitting the six latest polls this way — the earlier three and the later three — shows a Trump drop of about 7 points and an equal Cruz surge.
It's a leap to say this data represents Cruz picking off Trump supporters, but it's not a huge leap. Going by the PPP poll, 9 percent of Ohio Republicans were Trump supporters with a positive view of Cruz, and another 5 percent were Trump supporters unsure of what they thought of Cruz. About 6.5 percent of voters were Trump supporters who held Cruz as a second choice, and 15 percent were Trump voters unsure of their second choice.
Reading the tea leaves
Despite his lead in more polls, and his lead in the RCP average, Kasich has to consider himself tied with Trump in the polls. It's close enough that turnout operation and similar factors matter.
One factor: Kasich has favorability ratings around 70 in recent polls. Trump is well below 50 percent. Nothing has happend in recent days to drag Kasich down. The lowest margin-of-error poll (806 likely voters by Fox News) showed Kasich winning by 5 points.
Here's a key detail: None of these polls were conducted after Trump shut down his own Chicago rally because of protesters. This incident will have both upward and downward effects on Trump's standing. The net effect is impossible to predict ahead of time.
The expected “Cruz surge” propaganda posts...like the one in Michigan and Mississippi that foretold a Cruz surprise that was going to blow everyone’s minds.
The two main guys in Ohio that are actually campaigning will supposedly lose to Ted because.....(insert magic woo here)
What’s this about Kasich promising amnesty in 100 days? Will that help him in Ohio? If so, we are further goone than I thought.
A week after saying that it would be “illegitimate” and “wrong” for Washington insiders at the Republican National Convention to nominate a candidate against the wishes of most voters, Ted Cruz said Sunday it would actually be fine if the convention chose between him and Donald Trump.
Nothing to be surprised about though, just Ted being Ted.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-03-13/cruz-wavers-on-idea-of-contested-convention-as-trump-nears-inevitability
This is a serious question, I’m not trying to change your mind.
How are you a Cruz supporter? Apparently his meeting with the Bush’s, the NRO endorsement, the GOP donations doesn’t matter. Are Cruz supporters less opposed to the establishment than Trump supporters?
I am done with his secret polls.
South Carolina Rush claimed in South Carolina that Bush had that Cruz has closed within 2 points
Never happened
Cruz has an easy pathway to the election
Blames Democrats wholly for Chicago
Never mentions Cruz set it up by lying about Trump as low information Voters, where exit polls say Trump winning higher Educated.
Can't draw a line from Sea Island, Ga to Chicago.
I am so darned sick and tired of seeing Cruz telling everybody not to vote for Trump because of this and that. It’s getting really old. Between that and his sleazy election day shenanigans, I am fed up. No way do he, Rubio or Kasich get my vote.
The blaming of Trump by Cruz for the rabble rousers in Cincinnatti will cost Cruz dearly.... Basically any argument Cruz isn’t part of the one party government died with his announcements on the matter.
“It will eventually come down to Trump vs Cruz.”
Tomorrow is “eventually.” But the day after, it will be Trump, and only Trump for obvious reasons.
Let me get this straight. the article predicts that Trump might take third.
We’re one day before the voting and Trump and Kasich are fairly even @ around %34, with Kasich having the momentum, and Lying Ted Cruz is at 20% BUT SURGING and expected to over take Trump. Great reporting.
I hope it is true and I hope he loses a lot more than that.
So I guess the Bush finance team that Cruz has taken on board is not “establishment” enough you?
Stopped listening to Rush after first segment today. It was Cruz, Cruz, Cruz, Stop trump, Stop Teump. How the candidates other than Trump had to ban together then how Rubio and Kasich needed to get out for Cruz.
Sickening!
I know Trump supporters expect to get the nomination if he gets the most delegates, but short of the 1237 needed.
I wonder if they will support Cruz if Cruz gets the most delegates but short of 1237 needed?
I am supporting Cruz.
I believe some of Kasich’s actions in this last week...his statements about immigration, his running around with Romney, etc. are going to drive some votes to Trump and others to Cruz as well.
I really hope to see Cruz win a couple of states tomorrow and to finish second in Florida and have a real barn burner in Ohio. I would olove to see Kasich finish 3rd in Ohio.
We shall see.
I think it is coming down to a Trump - Cruz race...and I feel okay with that.
The GOPe is being soundly spanked this election...and they deserve it.
In the end, I will support Cruz against Hillary or sanders...and would also gladly support trump against Hillary or Sanders.
I think we all have to come to that...we are going to need each other, which ever man wins, come November.
I guess I am glad to be listening to Donald Trump, rather than Rush!
Are Cruz supporters less opposed to the establishment than Trump supporters?
There is no one more outside of the establishment than Trump, you don't see him hobnobbing with the likes of Hillary! or having anything to do with banks or loans.
The other day he was very supportive of Trump.
Putting blinders on doesn’t really help you form an educated decision. Or better yet to confirm what you truly believe.
Last Friday he was almost totally Cruz. I still listen most days but the start of the show today was just too much.
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