Posted on 10/23/2018 4:33:20 PM PDT by familyop
Two weeks out, district-level polls reflect a House battleground gradually polarizing along the lines of the 2016 presidential race. Democrats are maintaining leads over GOP opponents in upscale, Clinton-won "Whole Foods suburbs" of Chicago, Denver, Kansas City, Minneapolis and Northern Virginia. But Republicans' numbers continue to improve in Trump-won districts in places like rural Minnesota, Upstate New York and Downstate Illinois.
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats enjoy a four-point lead in midterm election interest, narrower than their ten points average lead for the first nine months of the year. It's likely that cultural flash points like the Kavanaugh confirmation fight and the "migrant caravan" are better-suited to rallying and awakening the Trump base than tax cuts, which mostly fell flat for Republicans in this year's special elections.
However, Democrats' staggering success in third quarter fundraising reports injects some last-minute uncertainty. An astounding 112 Democrats outraised GOP opponents in Republican-held seats between July and September. Of the 93 GOP incumbents who were outraised, 20 are currently in our Likely Republican column and 23 in Solid Republican. Democrats' late dominance in the air wars could produce several Election Night surprises.
Today, we're changing ratings in ten districts, including eight where Democrats' position has improved. Democrats now have a clear advantage in 17 GOP-held seats and Republicans have an advantage in two Democratic-held seats. If the 30 Toss Ups were to break evenly between the parties (15 seats apiece), Democrats would score a net gain of 29 seats, six more than the 23 they need to retake the majority.
We continue to believe anywhere from a 20 to 40 seat Democratic gain is possible, but right now the likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of between 25 and 35 seats. View our full ratings here or download a presentation-ready PDF here.
They’re believing their own lies again.
The red tsunami is going to push a lot of them over the edge.
There’s more information behind the link about particular districts. Sorry, I didn’t quite catch it all.
That was linked from the Drudge Report, BTW.
There is nothing to base Cook’s predictions on other than a good quarter of fundrasing.
I read a lot of it, doesn’t mean democrats will win, just that some races are leaning one way or another, and then if you split the toss ups, etc. That’s not very definitive.
Armies of lawyers are mobilizing to keep an eye on chaos at the polls
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/midterms/article220481405.html
People are sick of political ads. Late TV ads aren’t going to change any minds this year. It just buys favorable coverage for Dems as the MSM is the DNC.
Oh, PLEASE, God. Let it be so.
Cook predicted a 2016 GOP loss of 5 to 7 Senate seats. The GOP lost 2.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/the-worst-political-predictions-of-2016-214555
Larry noted earlier that Cook has moved EIGHT districts toward the Demon Rat party.
I smell Zogby sauce.
And what is this money used for? Mostly TV ads and annoying mailers. Who listens to these TV ads or reads these mailers anymore?
And GOTV efforts are pretty much ineffective at this stage. I mean who is going to change their vote now because someone called them or knocked on the their door?
Sorry Dems, money ain’t gonna buy your elections this time!
The Mob fundraising comes from Hollywood and a few anti American billionaires. It will not be reflected in vote totals. What money Republicans receive come from millions of individuals each one armed with a vote.
The Cook political report HAD an AWFUL prediction record in 2016. Why its the NY Slimes, CBS, and the Wash swamps favorite report!
I agree! A major problem we have in AZ is that those who supported Kelli Ward and Joe say they can’t vote for McSally. I get so angry at them sometimes because they cannot see Trump needs help!
The GOP will likely lose some House seats because the elimination of a substantial chunk of the SALT deduction will cost a number of high-income taxpayers. But I think there’s a better than even chance that it will hold the House, thanks to a combo of working class pay hikes and the Kavanaugh hearings. Upper middle income taxpayers will be out in force. But there are many more working class folks benefiting from wage growth at the bottom end of the pay scale. In time, we will hopefully be able to call the latter Trump Democrats.
My guess would be republicans are going to vote, blacks and Hispanics aren’t that motivated to turn out, equals republicans do well. Florida at risk because blacks will turn out for Gillum.
I’m just saying that voters should think long and hard about this election and vote Republican. Our lives depend on this one. We can put some of the entertainment off for a few weeks.
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