Posted on 11/05/2018 2:26:44 PM PST by Kaslin
This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make.
Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?
Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.
Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.
Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.
Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.
I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.
Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.
I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.
Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics. This is a phenomenon.
Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.
Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.
Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING.
The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected. The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.
And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?
That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.
Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.
In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?
No way Jose.
I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.
I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again
Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.
And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America.
#REDSTORM
Of those 40 Republican seats, 15 of them are presently leaning or likely Democrat. Of the 20 Democrat seats, two are leaning or likely Republican. That translates to the Democrats needing only TEN seats to take the House majority - not 23.
I don’t wear rose-colored glasses, and my name is not Pollyanna - unlike the dimwits here on FR, who cannot deal with political REALITY, and would rather post what amounts to mental masturbation.
Because this election is NOT about Trump. This election IS about Paul Ryan, and his fellow RINO ass wipes, who have obstructed Trump’s agenda from the beginning, and who do jack sh*t for their constituents - and the American people in general.
Sure as hell is about Trump
We will see, short timer. We will see.
You obviously have no concept of local elections. This is not about a national aggregate. It is about 60 microcosms, not one being similar to another - and absolutely no similarity to a national election. This election is a “Hail Mary, onside kick” - if you want a football analogy.
When I drove from Oroville WA to Yuma AZ, I saw more 3rd party signs than 0bummer signs in 2012. This was along numerous secondary highways and state routes mind you, as we avoided the Interstates.
While I respect your pessimism and I predicted a loss of 15 to 30 house seats...
The mere number of predicted “toss ups” doesn’t mean we will lose half or any percentage of them. We could lose all or just a few of them depending on turn out, last minute momentum, or local factors in each race. It’s not exactly a probability game.
And no need to attack the die hards on this forum.
Right, so unless you analyze and predict each local race, you can’t assume we lose half or whatever, you have no idea.
It really is all about turnout. Trump has done everything to motivate his base, and after all these have been republican districts.
That Pic of the president in Vegas with the Sierras in the background actually looks like the tidal wave he is bringing with him.
I’ve got my $10 on predict it! Looking forward to a couple dollars :)
Thanks for sharing that, more evidence. I’m hoping after the midterms we will deliver more Congressional support to our President as he has delivered for us. If that happens, I think we will see some genuine investigations into voter fraud.
completely agree...if you watch the video of Romney’s final night he looks and acts like he has it in the bag. I feel strongly their numbers were showing they were going to win. Then watch Obama’s final night- you get a strong sense that they know they are going to lose and that they are saying goodbye to the people. Watch their rally and you will see what I mean... I believe even they didn’t know the extent of what “their” people were doing behind the scenes to carry them over the line.
Local elections BS
Vast majority of voters don’t even know their congress critters names
Back in 94 when the GOP took the Senate and House it was a vote against Clinton’s BS
NOTHING to do with local elections
Same way when the Dems took over when Bush screwed up the war in 2006
Referendums on the PRESIDENTs
yeah, some of those “toss ups” are really iffy. And you have to wonder about these people here acting Chicken Little right on the eve of the election.
How does that explain why this guy said Romney would win in a landslide?
He's made two bold predictions so far and got one right. I guess this election's the tie breaker.
If not I expect to see less of you around here going forward. Try Democrat Underground for a bigger fiction based fanbase in 2020.
What was that you were saying?
Who’s the dimwit now?
Hate to say “I told you so” - but ...
I TOLD YOU SO!
I was right, you were wrong.
Pollyanna dreams are no match for real political acumen.
Regards,
Mr. “BIG SHOT”
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