“Rain favors Republicans, studies say”
Short Range Forecasts
Posted on 11/05/2018 7:09:09 PM PST by yesthatjallen
FiveThirtyEight founder and election forecaster Nate Silver on Monday offered his final projections for the midterm elections, arguing that a number of factors are conspiring to make Republican chances of keeping the majority in the House "fairly slim."
Silver gave Democrats a roughly 86 percent chance of winning the majority in the House. The party must pick up at least 23 seats on Tuesday to retake the majority.
"Democrats need a couple of things to go wrong to lose tomorrow because not very much is going right for Republicans," Silver wrote.
Silver said Republicans still stand a slim chance of retaining the House majority thanks to a strong economy and favorably drawn districts. The latter factor, Silver wrote, forces Democrats to win the popular vote by at least 5 percentage points to secure the majority.
Democrats, however, are aided by President Trump’s low approval ratings, strong fundraising numbers, a large number of Republican retirements and a historical precedent of the president’s party losing ground in the midterms, Silver noted.
"Democrats have been dealt a good hand and have done a great job of playing it, maximizing their number of opportunities to make seat gains," Silver wrote. "There’s still a chance — about a 15 percent chance — that their voters won’t turn out in the numbers they need, and they’ll fall a few seats short."
"But it would require polling and a lot of other data to be fairly wrong, and it would defy a lot of historical precedent as to what happens in midterm elections under unpopular presidents," he added.
Republicans have a more favorable path in the Senate, where the party stands a roughly 80 percent chance of retaining the majority, Silver projected. There are nine GOP senators up for re-election this year, compared to 26 Democrats, 10 of which are running in states Trump won in 2016.
Republicans currently hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate.
“Rain favors Republicans, studies say”
Short Range Forecasts
The polls got the popular vote about right but got the states wrong.
Similarly, the polls may well be right about the overall national vote, but it’s meaningless. Many Democrat districts are routinely 80-20,90-10. That skews the national total. But when you go district by district,it’s a different picture.
The generic ballot has closed to a small margin. It’s +3 Democrat to +1 Republican, depending on the poll. That is the range where the Republicans are likely to hold the House.
The media doesn’t even see #WalkAway or #Blexit.
All the trend lines are moving towards the Republicans.
In several states — most — Republicans he a lead in early voting, which Democrats ALWAYS win. ALWAYS.
Pundits are hedging, and the Democrats are not acting confident.
Huh???
And at the time, I thought all of this "78% chance" and "92% chance" was a bunch of hogwash.
HC loses two tossups, North Carolina and Florida, Trump wins Ohio, which he was projected to do, HC was toast if Trump just wins one other rust belt state.
How can two states, NC and Florida, be on a knife's edge on who would win, and Clinton all of a sudden had these astronomical odds of winning? What am I missing?
Or was it pure BS psyops by the media and liberal pollsters to demoralize the Republican voters?
as Rush said, they will ultimately be calling for the abolition of elections
Lack of traditional landlines are killing the polling business.
Along with the silent Trump voters who will not disclose their voter preferences.
The 538 project came to us courtesy of the guy who gave baseball WAR.
If the dems lose, now they can blame “global warming.”
The new DemocRat mantra: “Every vote counts” -translation- popular vote country wide should supersede electoral vote counts and local races. In their heads, if democRats win 51% of nationwide vote, they should have 51% of congress!
Oh, Nate Silver. His predictions have been useless ever since Obama stopped feeding his those internal polls.
Race A: Republican wins 51% to Democrat 49% with 1,000 votes cast.
Race B: Republican wins 51% to Democrat 49% with 2,000 votes cast.
Race C: Democrat wins with 80% to Republican 20% with 100,000 votes cast.
Therefore snowflake logic deems that because of the popular vote, the Democrats should be awarded all three seats.
I think it is smart phones killing the polling business. For example I seldom answer a phone call not on my contact list. I have every company I deal with on my contact list which is 200+ long. With land phones that information was limited at best.
In what dimension are they seeing Trump with low approval numbers?
Are Liberals/Democrats afraid of rain?
Of course, the little snowflakes would melt in the rain.
The Left has wanted us to have a parliamentary form of government since the beginning of the Progressive Movement over a century ago. The Left hates local races. For them, everything is a national concern.
I hope the Democrats lose badly just so that Obama will not feel that anyone cares what he thinks. It has been a pathetic spectacle watching him trying to drum up support for what amounts to massaging his big ego — he has been shown up as a fraud by a superior president.
And that president has too much class to take pot shots at his failed predecessor.
Democrat districts are deep democratic, while republican districts are lists of them 55-45. Dems are fewer 70-30.
Popular national vote means nothing. Never did in America.
Nate didn’t look at this: Weather going to help GOP. Republicans vote as a sense of duty ,dems not so much.
From USA Today
A potent storm is forecast to blast portions of the eastern U.S. on Election Day with rain, wind and potentially strong thunderstorms.
The foul weather could affect both voter turnout and the election outcome in some battleground states Tuesday: Recent studies have found that Republican candidates tend to have a slight advantage when it rains.
Yes....it’s a combination of many factors that have skewed the polling business.
I must confess that I still have my landline:)
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