Posted on 04/03/2020 5:25:28 AM PDT by Kaslin
God bless you for all you’ve been through and that you are still kicking. Sounds like you’ve got a good son.
Walmart’s online delivery is still quite good in these times for storable pantry foods.
In your example, are you saying that a person carrying the virus will infect only 2 others REGARDLESS of how many people are exposed to him? Or are you saying that given "shelter in place and social distancing" rules in place, the "average" infection rate is 2 infected for each carrier because the carrier will only come into contact with X number of vulnerable (i.e., non-immune) people before they recover and are no longer carriers?
And are you assuming that people who recover from the virus are now immune (this has not yet been established in fact IIRC. There have been situations where the virus has recurred a 2nd time in people who have recovered from a 1st bout)?
Thx again for helping me understand this.
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R0 is a measure of expected community spread for each person that gets a virus. The common flu has an R0 of about 1.3, which is to say that each person that gets the flu will infect 1.3 people (in the winter time, R0 falls off significantly in the summer as most viruses don't like heat). Depending on the R0 level, once you reach 50-70% of the population is immune, community spread is nearly impossible for most viruses as the spread drops significantly through basic statistics (ie R0 of 1.5 at 50% pop would be 0.75 and would die out, r0 at 3 at 70% is 0.9 and dies out). The higher the R0, the higher % of population that you need to be immune (60-80%). Once R0 goes below zero, it begins to die. However, if R0 goes below zero due to non-natural supression measures like we are doing, as soon as you stop those supression measures, the R0 returns to its original pace (likely 2.5-3 for this virus) and off to the races again.
R0 can vary based on transmission type, heat, humidity and other factors (sanitation, etc)
Thx so much for this. I will spend the next few hours trying to get this into my thick skull.;-)
I always take advice from someone named anonymous.
NP - and my last two sentences in first paragraph should say once R0 goes below 1, not zero. Once its reached zero no one is getting infected!
Up over 1,300 today. Still no flattening of the curve,
Good find!
Thanks for posting.
Sharing.
I agree...Fauci isn’t to be trusted. He’s not dumb, but he’s a career bureaucrat interested chiefly in securing more funding for his dept. One day, he authors a decent article in the NEJM. A few days later, he’s hysterical on NBC. A few days later, he’s normal on Fox Business. And so on and back and forth.
Like many fake-news statements, this statement misleads with the help of hyperbole .
The writer wants to give the impression that he's stumbled upon some new revelation when he says, "We are now also learning that it is not a matter of if but when ...". The fact is that we have ALWAYS known that many will get coronavirus. For the writer to say or suggest that we are just now understanding/learning this reality is indeed hyperbole - a figure of speech in which exaggeration is used for emphasis or effect.
Re: Post 72
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