Posted on 09/20/2022 8:43:31 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA
Latest estimate: 0.3 percent — September 20, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on September 20, down from 0.5 percent on September 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at atlantafed.org ...
The chart looks like Biden falling off his bike.
As Sgt Hartman would say “Well No Shyt Private.”
“WHAT ARE THEY SMOKING?!”
They got into Hunter’s stash.
Not to sound like a defender of the Fed, but … They update the GDPNow estimate based on economic reports. So two weeks ago they didn’t have all of the economic reports that they have today. Today’s was housing starts.
Yes. “They are advertising” this number today as a 0.3 “growth” (down from the previously released 0.5 “growth”).
First.
This permits a “SEE, WE TOLD YOU THERE WAS NO RECESSION” for 4 more weeks between today (late September) and the “Final 3rd quarter numbers” (released just before the election in November. )
Then, when the “actual numbers” are released in October as ANOTHER POSITIVE QUARTER” of perhaps an anemic 0.1 or 0.15% “growth” there will be much applause and plaudits from Biden's massed news media.
Then, when the revised-revised numbers for Quarter 3 come out in December or January, the TRUE NEGATIVE growth that we all know is the actual case! will be blamed on the Republican Congress elected in November.
Which won't take their seats until January 2nd....................
Democrats own 2022.
There’s no doubt that Democrats will try to blame Republicans. If Republicans weren’t so complicit with Democrats, or had an ounce of fight in them, they would be nailing Democrats to the cross on all the government spending that has been put on the books for the future. The economy will be in the tank next year because of spending bills this year, and last year and the last decades.
Republicans need to be prepared for the worst and start communicating how they will fix the economy and how long it will take. It will be painful for a lot of people. Just watch unemployment ramp up between now and the end of the year. Real unemployment actually ticked up last month. BLS was double counting jobs, i.e., if a person had two jobs, it counted as two people being employed. 99% of politicians are economic morons and don’t pay attention to the details.
I thought I saw it was actually going to be .1%??
Well, yes. As you can see, as long as “the powers that be” can declare any positive GDP increase of any measure before their Nov election deadline, they can avoid their own recession. Then, a small revision downward after the election doesn’t matter.
On the other hand, they will also claim “Republican MAGA domestic terrorist fear-mongering extremists “ caused the economy to crash by speading lies and falsehoods!
And after the election, they will claim “Biden did everything he could to Whip Inflation Now (wait, that’s the wrong slogan), but the mean, Nasty, hate-filled Republican white male extremists caused this summer’s recession by opposing Biden’s planned economy.
Sobering. Yes, those symptoms match what I felt during that same period (1st week in Feb 2020) - Waaaaaaay before any CV-19 tests came out.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.