SARS 'Could Kill One in Seven"

BBC ^

[per loin]

The death rate for Sars could be significantly higher than previously thought, an expert study into the pneumonia-like virus is expected to suggest.

The research by a British scientist, due to be published in a medical journal next week, is expected to say the virus could kill between 8% and 15% - or one in seven - of those infected.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently predicting a death rate of 5% to 6% and has insisted the virus could still be beaten if countries worked together to stop it from spreading.

The WHO said its estimate was more reliable because it had looked at infections around the world, instead of only looking at cases in a specific area.

Latest figures show that Sars has infected almost 4,649 people in 26 countries around the world and has claimed the lives of 275 people.

Higher death rates

The new research based on the study of the 1400 or so cases in Hong Kong, was carried out by Professor Roy Anderson at Imperial College London, one of the world's leading authorities on infectious diseases.

He analysed the spread of Sars in Hong Kong, where thousands have been infected and 115 people have died so far.

He calculated that between 8% and 15% of those who contract Sars will die.

His research also found that Sars remains infectious much longer than other viruses.

His estimates contrast with the 4% mortality rate originally put forward by the WHO.

WHO officials acknowledged on Friday that the Sars mortality rate had increased slightly in recent weeks.

David Heymann, its executive director of communicable diseases, said the mortality rate had now risen to between 5% and 6%.

Speaking earlier, he said Sars could still be stopped if countries worked together to stop it from spreading.

"We have a chance, we believe, to stop this disease if we all work together."

But he added that the virus could spread out of control if it reaches developing countries, such as those in sub-Saharan Africa, where healthcare systems would struggle to cope.

"What is important is for all countries to participate and to help prevent it getting in a place where it would be very difficult to stop it," said Dr Heymann.

On the positive side the study found it was relatively hard to transmit the virus from person to person.

Controlling Sars

Other WHO officials said there was now enough information on the disease and how it is transmitted to stop it from spreading further.

"We believe we know enough about this disease and transmission that there is a chance to control the disease and deal with it in an effective way," said Dr Mike Ryan, co-ordinator of the WHO's global alert and response network.

Of the 26 countries that had seen Sars cases, 23 have contained it well, according to the WHO.

Officials have also taken comfort that it has not spread as easily as other viruses, such as influenza.

"It hasn't spread like wildfire in the countries to which it has arrived," said Dr Ryan.

However, Dr John Hubley a lecturer in health promotion at Leeds Metropolitan University, said he felt Sars had the potential to wreak "absolute destruction."

'Recovering well'

"Though it's too early to say for sure what the impact of Sars will be, it is certainly far more contagious than Aids and the course of infection is much quicker," he said.

But Dr Ryan said: "At the beginning of the Aids epidemic we were dealing with a disease that was 100% fatal, with Sars that is not the case. The vast majority of people with it recover well."

In the UK, public health minister Hazel Blears insisted the government's response to Sars had been "proportionate, responsible and effective."

She dismissed calls from the Conservatives Party for stricter controls on travellers.

"In this situation we need to act responsibly we don't need to stoke up panic," she said.

There have been six probable cases of the virus in the UK, but no deaths.

[MatthewViti]

I really wish the US would stop people coming into the country from affected areas.

[blondee123]

I really wish the US would stop people coming into the country from affected areas.

My thoughts exactly, but you know they won't til it's an epidemic!! In every case in the U.S. it has been someone who has come back from either China or Canada! What will it take for our government to realize this is very SERIOUS?

[Iconoclast2]

Once again, government fails in its most fundamental responsibilities, while the Sheeple slumber.

[EternalHope]

Good article.

[Judith Anne]

Another excellent per loin post...I should sign off, really, because I'm in a goofy mood tonight...but I'm glad I saw this...

[goldstategop]

SARS won't have much of an impact here in the States with our advanced medical system and high standards of public hygiene. But if it gets past Hong Kong to much of the Third World, look out: it'll make the AIDS devastation look like a Sunday stroll in the park.

[per loin]

I kinda wonder about how much research he had to do. About a twenty second glance over my chart would lead to similar conclusions.

[per loin]

It seems to be nipping at India, and Malaysia has a lot of vegetable growers who used to deliver to the now closed Pasir Panjang Wholesale Centre. Singapore has quarantined all 2600 Singaporeans who worked there, and several now are probable SARS cases. But the Malaysians are back on the other side of the causeway, beyond Singapore's control.

[mercy]

1 in 7. Hmmmmm. That's still a ways from 1/3 of mankind. I wonder what's coming along to fill the gap?

[goldstategop]

And even THAT is a worse case scenario.

[per loin]

That 1 in 7 is for folks who have had good hospital care. Who knows what the figure would be without it?

[nopardons]

And not a single death from SARS, in the USA; not to mention an exquistely small number of cases, thus far.

[goldstategop]

I think its been in the dozens. For sure its reason for concern but not for hysteria and panic.

[goldstategop]

I think the figure is impossibly high. You will never see that kind of mortality rate in the First World. The Third World however, is a whole 'nother ball game.

[per loin]

And a couple of months ago, only a single case in Hong Kong without a single death.

[nopardons]

Three and a smidgen over; however, most of those are " surmized " and NO deaths at all. Very unlike the ASIAN and HONG HONG flus of the past; not to mention the SPANISH INFLUENZA of 1918.

[per loin]

Hong Kong has a per capita figure of about $26,000. Only a couple of thousand below Canada's.

[Russell Scott]

Is it
SARS - An extremely deadly and serious health problem.

Or is it just an old flu/cold bug that has resurfaced, but is being hyped up by WHO (another UN shame), using it as a weapon of mass distraction. This in order to distract the international media as America drains the Axis of UN Weasels, Evils, and Weevils swamp in Iraq, exposing the UN as nothing but a giant criminal enterprise. In other words:

iSARS - Ignore Seeing America Remove Saddam

Only time will tell. As of right now I choose number two, iSARS. Not anywhere near enough deaths to think of it anymore dangerous then other bugs of the past. Of course, it could be a serious plague of Biblical proportions. I'm open-minded on this subject.

[Judith Anne]

And you know, I just wonder about that...how accurate it is...the CDC case definition wants to eliminate as SARS those atypical pneumonia cases with no history of travel to an affected area or contact with a sick person who has a history of travel to an affected area.

I don't think that's a very good case definition, and I don't trust the CDC figures. Because how do you know if you've had contagious contact with someone who has been to an affected area? Especially if you live in a large city, go to baseball games, airports, films, ever use a public restroom, or a hospital restroom, or take a child to the ED, or or or.