Posted on 09/16/2016 3:25:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
For now, anyway. A month ago, analysts thought Hillary Clinton had enough of a lead in the Electoral College that she could coast to the finish line. She’s coasted ever since, and that has finally caught up to her — and so has Donald Trump. Politico polling analyst Stephen Shepard writes that current polling would give Trump 266 electoral votes, with any number of states available to give him the majority:
Just six weeks ago, Hillary Clinton’s advantage in the Electoral College looked insurmountable. Now, based on the latest round of public polls, it’s a different story.
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would apparently win roughly as many electoral votes as Hillary Clinton — who held a commanding lead in early August and seemed to be closing off all possible Trump routes to 270 electoral votes. …
A slightly more aggressive estimate could add Nevada, North Carolina and one electoral vote in Maine to Trump’s tally: The New York real-estate magnate is ahead in the most recent polls in Nevada and North Carolina, and in Maine’s Second Congressional District.
That, plus all the other states Mitt Romney won four years ago, would get Trump to 266 electoral votes — just four shy of the 270 needed to win. Clinton’s once-comfortable cushion has been deflated to such an extent that if Trump wins those states and the electoral vote in Maine, he only needs one more state to win — with Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia the most likely targets. And there’s recent polling evidence suggesting he is in striking distance in some of those states.
Perhaps a more accurate statement would be that Trump is no longer a long shot for 270. Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio have begun swinging toward Trump, but Florida in particular remains close. Trump has only a 0.7-point lead in the RCP average, and just edges out Hillary in Nate Silver’s calculations. In fact, Silver still has a Hillary victory at a 60/40 prediction, which he told me yesterday on my show is only a little better than a toss-up — but with a likely Electoral College outcome of 288 votes. At the moment, anyway.
The map has brightened considerably for Trump in the past month in both RCP and FiveThirtyEight calculations, but a Trump lead has not quite emerged. Breakout states like Pennsylvania and Virginia still appear more likely to go Democrat than Republican, even if less so than a month ago (75% and 69% respectively in Silver’s analysis, Hillary +5.8 and +5.2 in RCP averages). Even if Trump carries the states leaning his way on Silver’s current map, he only gets to 259 electoral votes. Adding Nevada, where he’s been competitive but still leans a bit to Hillary, gets him to 265. He’s not there yet, and the “lock” hasn’t broken — although it does seem that Trump’s getting better at picking it.
This race has had more volatility than any in recent memory, too, so there are two more questions to consider. First, how low can Hillary go, and how high can Trump go? He’s approaching his previous ceiling in the race, and with his favorability numbers, there’s a serious question as to whether he can improve his upside past that point. Even without considering ceilings and floors, the race keeps shifting very quickly. Team Hillary learned this week that Electoral College locks don’t last long, but Team Trump might be another Khan-troversy away from discovering that one can inadvertently lock it again. In other words, in this election, the last person at the lock might make the difference.
The SS SHitlerey aka Titanic II is takin on water!...
It’s 2014, because the vote would take place before seating the new Congress in January 2017.
And it isn’t simply a vote of Congressmen. Each **STATE** gets one vote, and whoever gets 26+ State votes, becomes President.
In the 2014 Congress, there are 3 States with split delegations (Maine, New Hampshire, and New Jersey), 14 States with Democrat majorities, and 33 States with Republican majorities.
So, there would be no contest as to who would be President if it went to the House.
Trump is up +10 in the Second CD of Maine & he might yet take the whole state.
You know, I need to start keeping a journal about all of this. I love history, so why not document it for my great grandchildren.
Romney -4, but up .7 by Oct 9.
McCain +1.3.
September 16 in RCP averages.
The new Congess would vote for the President/Vice-President, NOT the old Congress. The top three electoral college candidates receiving votes would be voted on by the House (each State one vote) if there was no majority winner selected by the electors. The top two VP candidates selected by the electors would be voted on in the Senate if no majority candidate was selected by the electors.
dvwjr
He would have a threefer. A trifecta. A hat trick.
We're down close to 50 days left until election day and it's looking good so far. Let's keep the big MO moving in Trump's direction.
Trump/Pence 2016 and Make America Great Again.
He had, has, and will have more than a few disgruntled people that are looking for a break in the usual systemic raping of this country.
You are correct about the incoming Congress selecting the President. Mea culpa. But considering that 33 States have a GOP majority in their delegations, it is highly unlikely that a result where Trump and Clinton both fail to reach 270 electoral votes would result in 9 States losing a GOP majority of their house representation.
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