Posted on 09/22/2016 1:19:26 PM PDT by Sybeck1
Survey also shows written-off GOP senator trailing by just 2 points
Republican Donald Trump is within 6 points of Democrat Hillary Clinton in President Obama’s home state, a poll released Wednesday suggests.
The survey by Emerson College, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, shows Clinton leading Trump 45 percent to 39 percent in Illinois. The state’s Democratic challenger for the Senate, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, leads incumbent Republican Mark Kirk by 2 points. That is closer than other polls; most observers consider Kirk the most endangered incumbent senator running for re-election this year.
The survey found similar results in the presidential race in Wisconsin, with Clinton leading 45 percent to 38 percent.
Spencer Kimball, who conducted the polls, said the results fit a familiar pattern he has seen in other states — Clinton continues to struggle with voters who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. In Illinois, only 53 percent of Sanders voters said they would vote for Clinton. Trump, meanwhile, has the support of 60 percent of the voters who cast ballots for Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in the primary. Clinton gets less than 7 percent of Rubio and Cruz voters.
"Cruz and Rubio supporters have basically come home, or they're going to [Libertarian Gary] Johnson," Kimball said. "They're not going to Clinton."
Obama carried Illinois by 17 points in 2012, and a Loras Collage poll released this week gave Clinton a 13-point lead in the Land of Lincoln. Loras pegged Duckworth's lead in the Senate race at 5 points.
Kimball said he still expects Clinton to win Illinois but the 6- and 7-point margins in states where a Republican has not won Electoral College votes since 1988 and 1984, respectively, further illustrate how much larger the electoral map may be this election.
Kimball said for Trump to actually win Illinois or Wisconsin, he would have to both hope Clinton fails to close the deal with skeptical Sanders supporters and peel votes away from Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In the Emerson poll, he took 15 percent of Sanders voters in Illinois, while 15 percent went to Johnson and 12 percent preferred Stein.
"The more those voters go to Johnson and Stein, the better Clinton does," he said.
Kimball said support for third-party candidates that shows up in pre-election polls tends to melt away by the time voters actually cast ballots. If that happens, he said, Clinton is more likely to benefit.
A similar dynamic is at work in the Senate race, Kimball said. He said the 2-point margin is mainly due to the fact that 11 percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else and an additional 9 percent were undecided. The Libertarian and Green Parties both have candidates on the ballot, but neither is well-known or well-funded. He said the fundamentals favor Duckworth — she has a 37 percent favorable rating, compared with just 27 percent of voters who approve of Kirk.
"Kirk's in a bad place," Kimball said.
The Wisconsin Senate race looks even bleaker for the GOP. Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson trails former Sen. Russ Feingold by 10 points.
"That Senate race looks like Feingold will pick it up," he said.
For Trump to win Illinois he MUST go to the inner cities in Chicago and talk to the residents in the worst of the west and south sides of Chicago. I want to Trump to continue his outreach to black voters. Talk with them and demonstrate that voting Dem has brought them nothing but misery.
Trump can win 20% of the black vote in Chicago and that can minimize whatever fraud the Dem machine can create.
He does that and he wins Illinois and the White House.
“If blacks get their act together they can own the city of chicago mayor position for along time.”
I have a feeling a lot of people in my area will vote for Trump but won’t say that out loud. I overhear conversations on the train. Most of the women who discusses politics detest Hillary aka Spawn.
Illinois is HEAVILY Republican once you get out of Chicago. Chicago Democrats run this state. They dominate the Illinois House & Senate because Chicago has most of the state's population (unfortunately.)
I live here, I know.
Absolutely correct. Even some of the suburbs in Cook county (Chicago) lean Republican. It's Illinoistan.
I live in Wheeling. Our U.S. Senate race has nine candidates, four on the ballot and five write-in candidates. The minor-party candidates, on the ballot, are Kent McMillen (of the Libertarian Party) and Scott Summers (of the Green Pary). I’m the campaign manager of Chad Koppie, a write-in candidate for the Constitution Party. He’s the only candidate, in that race, who is pro-life and anti-illegal alien. He’s also pro-gun rights, pro-fairtax, and pro-spending cuts. He thinks that the liberal vote will split among Kirk, Duckworth, and Summers, helping Chad win with 30%. Please read his site, www.chadkoppie.com.
For Trump to do well in Illinois, he should campaign in moderate areas, including my town, Wheeling. My county commissioner is a Republican, Gregg Goslin. My state senator and state rep. are Democrats, Terry Link and Carol Sente. My congressman is a Republican, Bob Dold. Our state has similar moderate towns in McHenry Co., Will Co., and Rock Island Co.
I sent you this what did you do with it ?
Suggested Theme For the Constitutional Senate candidate;
A POX ON THE UNIPARTY !!!
THE TWO ILLINOIS CANDIDATES FOR US SENATE
FROM BOTH MAJOR PARTIES SHOULD BE DUMPED
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE MADE OUR CONSTITUTION INCLUDING ITS GUARANTEE OF EQUAL PROTECTION UNDER THE LAW.A STANDING JOKE AS THEY PROCEED TO WRECK IT .AND THEIR CANDIDATE WOULD SUPPORT ITS CONTINUANCE....WHILE RINOS LIKE KIRK ENABLE THAT TO HAPPEN BY FUNDING THEM..TIME TO SEND BOTH A MESSAGE...... WE SEND SENATORS TO WASHIINGTON TO REPRESENT OUR INTERESTS NOT PROTECT THEIR POLITICAL PARTY ...WE ARE TIRED OF LIES AND ENCIRCLING GOVERNMENT RED TAPE CHOKING THE LIFE OUT OF OUR PERSONAL FREEDOM AND LIBERTY
IF EITHER OF THE TWO GET ELECTED THAT WILL CONTINUE......
I never saw that before today. I’ll send it to Chad and ask him to use it in his speech, next Wed., at the Heartland Institute. The meeting is by invitation only, for the most important conservative leaders of Illinois. Thanks for that suggestion.
The finished piece is in your email hope to be in town next month you have my address keep in contact....
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