Note: this topic is from 4/14/2006. Thanks Neville72.
Posted on 04/14/2006 6:50:53 AM PDT by Neville72
Ray Kurzweil will be the first guest on theoretical physicist Dr. Michio Kaku's new ("Science Fantastic") radio show, which debuts on about 90 commercial radio stations nationwide Saturday April 15 at 5:00 - 8:00 p.m., Eastern, 2:00 - 5:00 p.m. Pacific. The show is syndicated on Talk Radio Network.
Kaku, the co-founder of string field theory, holds the Henry Semat Chair in Theoretical Physics at the City Univ. of New York and is the author of two international best-sellers, Hyperspace and Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century, and Parallel Worlds.
The interview covers the Singularity, merger with intelligent machines, radical life extention, and other topics related to Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near book.
While it may be true that progress in technology is accelerating, what do any of the data points at or before the one labeled "Homo sapiens sapiens" have to do with progress in technology?
The reason the chart has no objective meaning is that "Event" is unspecified.
Well I suppose that's true in the case of this posting but it is not true of the chart in the book.
The author makes the point that the actual "events" that are selected are not that important. You can pick any set of events that you like that represents significant milestones in terms of the advance of technology. His point is that these events or milestones are coming faster and faster.
Example: How many years did it take for us to go from kites to balloons to gliders to gliders that would a carry a man to a plane that was self powered to a man on the moon. Chart those events and you will see that progress accelerates. That is the point of the chart.
See, this is is what I mean. If there is no rule selecting the events then the chart of those events has no objective meaning. It is an exercise in rhetoric or propaganda because the events can be selected to match the desired chart.
You should really have a look at the book. The point is that you can pick any set of events you like and you always get the same curve. That is not because there is no objective meaning - it is because technology accelerates, it grows exponentially rather than linearly. That is the point. He's describing the Moore's Law of Technology.
OK, I pick the events called out in the History section of this article on clocks. The data points are these
| Years ago | Years delta | Event |
| 5006 | 2913 | clepsydra |
| 2093 | 937 | Antikythera mechanism |
| 1156 | 326 | mechanical timekeeper |
| 830 | 74 | Sens Cathedral installed a horologe |
| 756 | 184 | earliest reasonably accurate clocks |
| 572 | 223 | first self-striking clock |
| 349 | 13 | pendulum clock. |
| 336 | XX | anchor escapement, |
Here are the points for log-log plot
| 3.699490845 | 3.464340485 |
| 3.320769228 | 2.971739591 |
| 3.062957834 | 2.5132176 |
| 2.919078092 | 1.86923172 |
| 2.878521796 | 2.264817823 |
| 2.757396029 | 2.348304863 |
| 2.542825427 | 1.113943352 |
If you plot them you don't get a line. Instead it starts out curved then hooks up and then back down. I wish I could post it somehow.
Do you get the point now?
Note: this topic is from 4/14/2006. Thanks Neville72.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
