Posted on 02/20/2007 7:25:29 PM PST by dirtboy
Political observers are falling over themselves trying to determine the cladistics of a newly-emergent population of political animal, the Rudy booster. This appears to be the first new species of Republican to emerge in over two decades in the Family Republicanae (the last being Conservatisi reagani), and displays a particularly odd range of behaviors that call into question the long-term political viability of the new species, as well as that of Republicanae in general if they assume a position of dominance.
Some observers have proposed classifying the new population as a subspecies of Rinous rockefelleri, whereas others have made a fairly convincing case that the new species properly belongs within the Family Democratus and the genus/species of Scoopjacksonae liebermani - an endangered group of pro-war liberals with otherwise no conservative positions, hunted nearly to extinction by the more rabid Friedhippybrainous deaniaci. But for now, they will will treated as a separate species within Rinous.
In this field guide, we will discuss the observed talking points to date of the Rudy boosters as a means to understanding their behavior in the wild, whether those are calls of alarm, anger, deception or delusion, and what those mean for making a proper and clinical determination of whether this is just a subspecies displaying new liberal tendencies is truly an emergent new species, perhaps due to geographic isolation in the liberal Northeast.
For example, take the now-commonly-heard talking point that Rudy can beat Hillary. This talking point does display anger and deception tendencies at times (especially when the Rudy booster is getting hammered on other subjects), but should properly be placed into the delusion category, given that Giuliani never outpolled Hillary during the 2000 NY Senate race even though he was the sitting mayor and she was a carpetbagger with cankles that would send Godzilla screaming back into the ocean, never to return.
And this talking point shows the precarious nature of the Rudy booster's existence - namely, that they believe that their candidate can hold together the GOP despite the lessons of 1992. That Rudy can pull in key pro-life Catholic Dem swing voters despite getting awards from NARAL. And that a pro-war candidate can survive if he strikes out leftward in search of votes into regions that are increasingly antiwar.
Interested observers are encouraged to post their observations of talking points and opinions as to the proper cladistics for Rudy boosters. This field guide will initially be organized topically and also by electoral strategy, although that could change if the behavior of Rudy boosters continues to grow more irrational and erratic.
Next chapter - how to get Rudy boosters shrieking like howler monkeys - bring up the 2nd Amendment
OK, who amongst the "family" did NOT turn out in 2004? In 2004, the socon base delivered to the max - 80/20 Bush and a record turnout. Did we win 45 states? no, we won by 65000 votes (swing) in Ohio.
so who didn't vote for us in 2004? In other words, show me a candidate that can max the socon base like Bush did in 2004, AND get some more votes amongst the other "family" members that Bush could not get. why do I say "more" votes? Because we are going to have to do better then 2004 - trends are showing we are going to do worse in 2008 amongst Hispanics and Generation Y voters. We've got to make that up someplace. Where do we go? Is there some candidate that can get 90/10 white evangelicals? I don't know. OK, we'll pick up more generic white male voters who would not vote for Shrillary (few men will vote for a woman who reminds them of their nagging wife), I give you that. But we are also going to see a higher turnout amongst single young women who think its "chic" to elect the first woman president. And I also think Hillary is going to shift the "Oprah" voting block - married suburban independent women - slightly more in her favor.
So let's forget the specific candidates for a moment, and focus analytically on the demographics.
Oh, we understand it alright. We're just tired of being Boxer the horse when the only ones who get to run the farm are the pigs.
I disagree. Even if social conservatives all sit out this election, Rudy will (after beating McCain for the Republican nomination of course) draw so much support from among independents and "Rudy" democrats - as well as republicans - that they will form a large enough voting block to sweep him into office.
Rudy is a great leader. And he's conservative where it counts: the war on terror, the economy, law and order issues, and supreme court nominations. And he's got great legs.
Yep, and a lot of those swing votes were pro-life Catholic Dems and independents. That's the problem. Rudy won't pull them.
I'm really not sure how the GOP can win in 2008. The party seems rudderless. However, I do know what the answer ISN'T - it is not to nominate someone who will be unable to hold the party together and unable to pull in key pro-life and/or pro-gun Dems. Rudy simply is NOT the answer.
From the Intro above:
And this talking point shows the precarious nature of the Rudy booster's existence - namely, that they believe that their candidate can hold together the GOP despite the lessons of 1992. That Rudy can pull in key pro-life Catholic Dem swing voters despite getting awards from NARAL. And that a pro-war candidate can survive if he strikes out leftward in search of votes into regions that are increasingly antiwar.
Please detail just HOW and WHERE Rudy will get the votes to replace any lost social conservatives. Specifics, please, not generalities.
Made me happy to hear him pointing it out.
you are be right, he can't pull (some of) them.
but look at states like PA - almost hopeless now for a republican presidential candidate. why? Because we are getting destroyed in the metroplexes. Mind you, I'm not talking about the inner cities. The mostly white suburbs tied closely to the urban metroplexes, are trending further and further Dem. So we can't win PA because we do so poorly in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs - white, suburban, middle/upper middle income, and trending Dem. The same pattern is emerging in Virginia - northern VA as a suburb of the DC metroplex, also going in this direction.
We have to change that trend.
Don't waste your time. These anti Rudy folk are only interested in clucking among themselves and pretending to make political sense.
I think an anti-amnesty and anti-illegal immigration position will pull more Dems that people realize. A lot of blue-collar Dems stand in opposition to their union leaders on that subject.
Still waiting for you to tell us just where and how Rudy can pull in Dem and Indy votes.
well, how many of them will sit it out? all of them, 50+% of them? big numbers like that sitting it out, and even I don't believe we could win with that formula.
but hey, this is what polls are for. and yes, polls (especially the internal ones the parties use) do work, and you can bet these are the kinds of scenarios being looked at by the Republican party.
That is an excellent comment! I hope most of the folks here get it, because it neatly sums up our (SC) dilemma.
Oh, and thanks for the new talking point.
ping
What are you guys gonna do next, prove that Giuliani can't win using "geometric logic" while you roll ball bearings in your hands? I don't see this frenzy of attacking the supporters of other candidates as being a particularly good strategy to build support for your own candidate. Uh, you do have one, don't you? You'd never know it around here.
That's a favorite talking point when the details cannot be dealt with - ask about our guy when your guy is so flawed. Of course, you will turn around and say our guy can't win because of the fundraising issues with a front-loaded primary schedule. What you are basically saying is shut up and put some ice on it.
What guy? "Our guy" - what does that mean?
Chickened out the first time.
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