2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008

InTrade ^ | Monday, August 25, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

[editor-surveyor]

"I still have a premonition of sorts that this will end up a 269-269 tie in the EC"

D.C. doesn't get 269 electorial votes.

[Repeal The 17th]

“I believe if Obama wins, we are in for deep trouble.”
- - -
I believe that if Obama does not win,
we are also in for deep trouble.
If he does not win it will bring about racial strife
like we have not seen since the 60’s and 70’s.
So, we’re damned if he does and damned if he don’t.

[Military family member]

I thought recent polls showed Ohio and Pennsylvania polling toward McCain?

[Momaw Nadon]

I thought recent polls showed Ohio and Pennsylvania polling toward McCain?

InTrade numbers seem to lag a bit behind polling numbers.

Norman, do you know what the most recent polls are saying regarding OH and PA?

[AmericaUnited]

No, you need to understand the source.

I'm very, very familiar with "the source". This is crap! Ignorant people betting foolishly.

[justlurking]

I'm very, very familiar with "the source". This is crap! Ignorant people betting foolishly.

Maybe so, but in the past it's been a very good indicator of the outcome of US elections.

This far out, the absolute numbers aren't that important. The interesting information is in the trend -- i.e. how it's shifting from one outcome to the other. And as the original poster points out, it is definitely trending in favor of McCain.

[cmsgop]

But if they are collectively biased for one reason or another, it won't be accurate. It certainly doesn't represent any kind of scientific poll.

Exactly my point

[Hattie]

If you look more closely at them, you'll see that McCain is actually in a decent position, and is poised to take the lead in Electoral Votes.

I guess I need a magnifying glass. Where do you see that?

[Momaw Nadon]

I guess I need a magnifying glass. Where do you see that?

Colorado
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Virginia

All of these states are 10% or less away from being moved into the McCain column.

[justlurking]

Exactly my point

No, you said:

Your just scaring people with this. This is a really old map with old numbers.

No one that understands the clearly labeled source of the data has any reason to be scared. It's a collective interpretation of the polls, the campaign ads, and the public profile of the candidates by a small group of people. The interesting part is that their opinion is trending in favor of McCain, reflecting an improvement in his position.

But, it's certainly not a "really old map with old numbers". It was generated today. You can look at the InTrade site and check them yourself.

[justlurking]

Nevada has been hovering near 50% since the first of the year. But, the other four states are strongly trending upward for McCain since mid-July. One (Ohio) has gone from just above 30% to nearly 50%.

[lovesdogs]

I believe that if Obama does not win,
we are also in for deep trouble.
If he does not win it will bring about racial strife
like we have not seen since the 60’s and 70’s.
So, we’re damned if he does and damned if he don’t.
*******************************************

I do not give one hoot about that. The playing field has been level for some time now. Asians and Cubans just to name a couple of minorities, came to this country recently and made success for themselves...not freaking excuses.

Obama needs to loose and loose big. If people want to riot, that is fine by me. I have a large pantry, a generator, big dogs, guns and plenty of ammo.

And if anyone wants to call me a racist, have at it. I do not see race as an issue here. I see a bunch of namby pamby cry babies who want to sit in a stinking steaming pile of victimitis. And by the way I am a lady. My husband makes me look like a liberal.

[justlurking]

Another point: All of the states in McCain's column are solid, by 16% or more.

Obama is ahead by 10% or less in 5 states, which represent 51 electoral votes. If those states go for McCain instead, it's 278-260 for McCain.

Either NV or NH (but not both) could still go for Obama, and McCain would still have the winning margin.

[Momaw Nadon]

Thank you for your posts.

You are better at explaining stuff than I am.

[Maceman]

we are also in for deep trouble. If he does not win it will bring about racial strife like we have not seen since the 60’s and 70’s. So, we’re damned if he does and damned if he don’t.

I think we are WAY more damned if he does win. We're not in the 1970s anymore, and racial strife in response to an Obama loss will only appall the nation as a whole. People are getting fed up with this race-baiting stuff, and I think any overt acting out by angry black mobs (if in fact such a thing actually happens) will backfire terribly. The biggest loser will be the Democrat Party, and that can't be a bad thing.

[Radix]

After Hillary, McCain is the most popular national candidate in Massachusetts. He is stronger still in New Hampshire.

We shall see what happens.

[bruinbirdman]

I naturally look at Nevada first. 5 electoral votes for Obama? McCain is ahead at least 5% here. No need to give further consideration to the list.

yitbos

[justlurking]

I played with the Iowa Electronic Markets long ago. They limit your investment to $500, but I put in only $20.

I didn't make any money, but it was a lot more fun than dropping it into a slot machine. :-)

[cmsgop]

Where does it say Intrade in the Title? It says

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008

It make it sound like this is a poll. Maybe have the Title reflect this is Intrade. It's misleading,hence some of the reaction on this thread.

[justlurking]

Where does it say Intrade in the Title?

In my browser, it's the link to the article immediately under the title.

And the original submitter's comments start with:

Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

It's misleading,hence some of the reaction on this thread.

It's only misleading if you don't bother to read the article or even the poster's comments for the source of the projection(s). You really shouldn't blame someone else for that.