Posted on 09/23/2008 7:37:54 AM PDT by IndianPrincessOK
General Election: McCain vs. Obama RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes Polling Data Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread RCP Average 09/11 - 09/22 -- 48.3 45.4 Obama +2.9 Rasmussen Tracking 09/20 - 09/22 3000 LV 48 48 Tie Battleground Tracking 09/17 - 09/22 800 LV 46 48 McCain +2 CNN/Opinion Research 09/19 - 09/21 697 LV 51 47 Obama +4 Gallup Tracking 09/19 - 09/21 2740 RV 48 44 Obama +4 Hotline/FD Tracking 09/19 - 09/21 922 RV 47 42 Obama +5 CBS News/NY Times 09/12 - 09/16 LV 49 44 Obama +5 Quinnipiac 09/11 - 09/16 987 LV 49 45 Obama +4
See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for General Election: McCain vs. Obama Obama McCain Intrade Real Time Quotes (See More Data)
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
McCain even with his semi fumble has succeeded over the past few days with labeling Obama as incapable of responding to the financial crises also McCain has been largely sticking to his guns and running like Reagan where as Obama is still running like a liberal Senator from Illinois. Also his coming out with talk about making the trillion dollar bill even bigger with handouts hasn’t been playing well. People aren’t as stupid and needy as he has been playing them. The handouts of socialism doesn’t work as well and of course the Democrats are controlling congress and the top individuals involved with the situation around this bailout are Democrats like Dodd, Barney Frank, etc. All of these things have kept brought the wind back to McCain.
And a different black uber-lib communist sympathizer said exactly the same thing on O'Reilly last night.
FR is defintely a see-saw.
You were not here earlier today where Quinn/Wash compost polls showed Obama leading in all the battleground states and people were moaning that McCain was acting all liberal and thats why he was losing.:)
He got back on his message with the 30 second ads.
These are more effective than anything else out there.
You are correct about our prospects if we lose it, but I think we will scrap out a win there somehow.
I really think McCain is going to win Colorado and I think he has a good chance to take Penn. I think in the end when folks walk into the voting booth and look at those names they’re going to want to go with the wise and experienced over the empty suit, with events going on in the ME and even the economy.
“McCain even with his semi fumble has succeeded over the past few days with labeling Obama as incapable of responding to the financial crises also McCain has been largely sticking to his guns and running like Reagan where as Obama is still running like a liberal Senator from Illinois. “
If Obama had been a reputable opponent he would have sealed the deal this past week and weekend. The voters are not stupid and by waiting to really move very far one way or another is just being smart to analyze and wait. I just love it that Obama is going back down after his fake smirk on Friday and all the help the MSM is giving him....America is waking up and realizing this empty suit is what it is. McCain and his experience and trust is what will win over the voters. Love it!
IMO McCain/Palin have an excellent opportunity to close this out. The first debates for both Prez and VP should do the trick. The GOP has the Drill Drill and Fannie /Freddie effects that work in their favor. Obama has Biden, Ayers, Rezko etc that are timebombs anyone of which may sink the Bismark Barry.
“Obama has Biden, Ayers, Rezko etc that are timebombs anyone of which may sink the Bismark Barry.”
And least we forget Obama has Michelle which has been hidden away campaigning although unable to attend the 9/11 Memorial. Gee that is really sitting well with America!!
Obama will lose because he has to win all these 4 states to get into the Black House. PA,WI,MI,MN. He will lose at least one of them. Game over.
Why O will lose PA, WI and possibly MN and MI.
Even dems agree that 20% will not vote for him. I did a little research. Took the number of votes in those states in 2004.
Actual votes
PA- Bush 2,793,847 Kerry 2,938,095
WI- Bush 1,478,120 Kerry 1,489,504
MN- Bush 1,346,695 Kerry 1,445,014
MI- Bush 2,313,746 Kerry 2,479,183
Then, I reduced Kerry’s votes just by 10%. See how it looks now
PA- McCain 2,793,847 Obama 2,644,286
WI- McCain 1,478,120 Obama 1,340,554
MN- McCain 1,346,695 Obama 1,300,513
MI- McCain 2,313,746 Obama 2,231,265
John McCain will all win all thses 4 states narrowly. Add to this the Bradley effect. Looks good to me.
I agree. Obama can’t win, but McCain can lose. McCain needs to close the deal. If I were Mac, I’d be on the shows saying that I saw this coming in 2005, had a fix in store, and the senate blocked it. Now this is what we have to do and come back with a clear plan.
Good work! And yep! It’s all looking good. With a good voter turnout by Republicans, and with more Democrats on our side, we can put this Obama nightmare away for good!
This election could very well hinge on how well the truth behind the sub-prime/FannieMae and Freddie Mac Dem complicity gets out to the public. So far in whatever Big Media account of the crisis I’ve read, heard, or seen nowhere are the origins delineated. Big Media is scared and for good reason. The Dems are responsible for more than the lions share. Whatever reforms of the FMs were proffered they were generated by Republicans including Bush and McCain. This news should cost Obama at least ten points in the polls.
We and conservative organs in general will have to get the truth out because Big Lib Media is avoiding the truth like a rotten smell in the middle of their living room. The Democrat stink is so overwhelming and permeates this sordid mess so much it's all Big Media can do to suppress it. Big Media is trying to put its fingers over its eyes and hold its nose and pretend it doesn't exist.
Exactly, this is the point I’ve been making since the day he got the nomination.
Fauxbama has to win every state Kerry got and pick up at least 19 EC votes to win, and he can’t do it. Everyone talks about the 80k votes in OH, however in terms of percentage of the votes cast PA was far closer than OH.. the difference was only 140k votes.
Fauxbama does not have the support of democrats that Kerry got, in 2004 election Kerry got 89% percent of support from dems, and Bush got 93% support from republicans. Kerry got like 51% of the women vote and the independent vote was pretty much a 50/50 split. Fauxbama is not polling near these numbers at all, his support within dems is in the low 80s at best, McCain’s in the mid to upper 80s, Fauxbama is down among women, doing even worse among men than Kerry and McCain has the independents by a solid margin.
Again, Kerry won PA by about 140k votes, and that was with solid support among the Blue Dogs and Moderate Dems and the party machine firing on all cylinders for him. Fauxbama has none of this. He cannot win PA.
The real battleground folks in the rust belt at this stage of the election, MI, WI and PA, Fauxbama cannot survive losing any of these. Lets say a worst case scenario and VA flips (I don’t believe for one minute it will, but lets just play devils advocate, and say Fauxbama picks up VA’s 13 votes, holds Colorado 9 and gets NM 5, that’s 27 votes, he needs 19 to get the White House... Now that’s breaking Fauxbama way every R state that’s close.... But Fauxbam loses just the smallest EC vote of all these states, of WI (10) EC votes, and everything else stays (NH doesn’t go R like its looking, and he holds PA & MI. Fauxbama still is only up 17, and dems need 19, he loses.
I am being beyond generous to put up that scenario, as I have no doubt VA will stay R, and that Fauxbama is going to lose at least PA, and probably 2 of the 3 states of MI, PA and WI. Not to mention NH looks like it will flip and I’ve been telling folks for a few weeks keep an eye on WA, I think dems are in for a big suprise there. I am also not convinced that Fauxbama is going to pull off CO or NM on election day. IA possibly because of ethanol subsidies, but other than that I don’t really see any previous R state flipping.
I see WAY WAY more D states that have been trending R slowly over the last several cycles, that with a strong D candidate would even have trouble holding due to long term trends, but with this schlub as the guy on the ticket, there is no doubt they will move R.
Now, with all that said, I truly think this election is not going to be close, these 1-3% projections I think are absolute hogwash, I think its going to be a blowout. Not a 49 to 1 EC victory like a Reagan, but definately not the 1-3% close race folks are calling for.
The election is really a matter of letting folks who are mad at Bush know that yea, mistakes have been made, but even so you can’t trust this neophite empty suite done nothing. When folks walk into that voting booth, most of them are not going to say, I’m ticked at Bush and Republicans and they need to pay, and vote to but Fauxbama in the white house. Any other Dem most likely would be cakewalking this election, but they put up the one guy who never ever had a chance.
Amen.
Recent polls by the MSM trying to make it appear that Obama is still competitive but he is weakening every day.
10-20% of Hillary supporters are not going to vote for him, while the GOP turnout should be strong with Palin on the ticket.
Again, just look at the activities of the candidates in the campaign. That reveals a lot about what their internal pollsters are telling them. Appears that both the camps know it is going to be a landslide for McCain/Palin. Palin already carries out duties of a VP by meeting the foreign dignitaries. (Why Biden doesn’t meet the leaders?) Biden and Obama are going at each other’s throat. Biden infuriated the coal workers at PA and pretty much handed it to us. Bill Clinton is praising Sarah and pretty much campaigning for her. Dems congressional leaders might already be cutting deals with the Reps for a honorable exit from this election. MSM is spinning stories about how the rasicm will make the Dems lose.
Don’t watch the polls. Just watch the actions of the candidates.
“He can’t do it?” I wish it were not true but I believe Obama may do it. If he flips Ohio, Va., Col., Iowa, and NM he has indeed done it. If he even just flips the last 3 of them, he has done it. A huge last minute Bush or McCain/Palin scandal could reverse McCain’s fortunes. God forbid, but it may happen. Having said that, I believe McCain will prevail. I am encouraged most by McCain’s strength in Pa. But I am prepared for whatever happens. In fact, an Obama victory could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Or maybe not. It could happen that the GOP is up against a solid Jackass government with a USSC trending liberal. Dumb good luck could lock them into place for several elections. But I doubt it.
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