Posted on 10/13/2008 11:41:15 AM PDT by jveritas
In the Ohio 2008 primaries, Hillary Clinton received 70% of the White democrats votes versus for Obama. In total Hillary Clinton received 1.1 million from the White voters in Ohio excluding the number of votes she received from the Republicans who participated in this primary.
According the most optimistic pro-Obama media polls at least 25% to 30% of Hillary Clinton voters will be voting for John McCain this November.
If we make a conservative assumption that only 20% of them will vote for John McCain then this will be 220,000 Hillary Clinton voters in Ohio will be voting for John MCain. These are reliable democrat voters who the vast majority of them have voted for John Kerry in 2004. Now if assume that at least 80% of them have voted for Kerry in 2004 i.e. 176,000 voters then Obama is a deficit of 176,000 x 2 = 352,000 voters compared to the votes that Kerry received in Ohio.
Kerry lost Ohio to President Bush by 118,000 votes and now Obama has a deficit of 352,000 votes among those who voted for Kerry. So if we assume that McCain will get all of President Bush votes in Ohio then Obama will be behind 352,000+118,000= 470,000 votes.
Obama has to overcome 470,000 votes McCain advantage by getting some of President Bush voters to vote for him or dramatically increase the black voters turn out from 2004. Those are almost impossible task for Obama to achieve.
???????
Agree 100%.
My Mom, who is teetering on senility, voted absentee here in Ohio. She wrote in Huckabee for some reason.
Who is the polling firm and what are the internals?
In this area of SE Ohio McCain signs vs Obama signs are 10:1. I know lifelong democrats who say nOBama they are voting republican for the first time ever. I do not beelvie that Obama can take Ohio or WV and it looks like PA might be the same way. Remember Gov Rendale was a Hillary supporter, it’s possible that the fraud we normally see in the cities just won’t happen this time? I really want the media to be floored by how bad Obama loses!
“proves?”
No, no, no. Your arithmetic is suggestive, hopeful, cheering, but your numbers don’t “prove” a thing. All the polls for Pennsylvania from October show Obama leading by double digits. They’ve got a lot of data. I’ll buy some are biased. But all of them, by that much? There would have to be extraordinary deficiencies in their basic methodology. McCain gave up on Michigan, and the polls still show it way closer than Pennsylvania.
The only “proof” comes Nov. 4th (if then).
The media largely ignore this, because it works in their favor if McCain diverts valuable resources to defend states like MO, NC and IN, instead of trying to pick off NH, PA, MN, etc.
We shall see.
Then "the base", including many here on FR, need to understand that voting to defeat an enemy of the Republic is voting FOR something, that something being the survival of the Republic. I view voting to keep Oscumwad out of the White House as an affirmative act. It preserves our Republic and allows us to live to fight another day. If Obama gets in, we'll have neither.
We need to face the reality of the situation this election cycle. The next President is going to be either Barack Obama or John McCain. There is no other credible outcome. Putting them side by side, which is the better choice for the job?
She’s not the only one... This is what I’ve been trying to get folks to realize, what’s going on ON THE GROUND, is not being captured in the polls. Fauxbama can’t win this thing folks, relax... Don’t let yourself get dejected, that’s exactly what they want. They ONLY way Fauxbama can win is if Republicans in large numbers stay home.
An excited and motivated Republican Base is what the MSM and DNC fear more than anything else. McCain is winning the swing voters by a pretty solid margin, and good bits of the dem base will cross party.. Long term dependable as hell voters will be voting for McCain... Fauxbama cannot win as long as the Republican Base doesn’t get dejected and not show up on election day.
Stop the doom and gloom folks, the polls are not accurate and are a joke. Look at reality folks, those of you who are dejected, or feeling down, just look at reality:
Reagan won Election in 1980 by 9.7% of the vote over Jimmy Carter
Clinton won Re-Election in 1996 by 8.5% of the vote.
Bush Sr won Election in 1988 by 7.8% of the vote.
Now, do you really think FAUXBAMA has remotely the support of any of those candidates????? Be serious with yourself for a moment.
Do you think the economic situation is so bad right now that its comparable to 1980??????
The very idea that Fauxbama is up by 10+ is so prima facially laughable that you must completely not understand BASIC 2nd grade MATH if you are to believe that.
No Democrat has won the White House EVER without winning WV or MO... Fauxbama is losing BOTH of these states.
McCain is beating Fauxbama with independent voters folks, and the 2004 turnout was 37D, 37R and 26I. There is no reason to expect voting turnout to change from this... All you have to do is stop being dejected, stop buying into the doom and gloom and fight hard and show up! That’s it.. Fauxbama cannot win unless the Republican Base stays home... its really nothing more complicated than that.
The're wrong, or you heard it wrong.
The weekend Ohio Poll had it McCain 48%, Barry 46%. The good news is that the Ohio Poll always leans left, or at least it has for the past dozen elections. :)
Well yes, they can all be off that much. Remember, the campaigns have access to numbers that you and I will never see. What is shown on TV and the rest of the MSM is doggerel for consumption by the proles. If McCain is still active in PA while leaving MI, it's because the internal polls show he has a shot at taking PA, but not MI.
"A designer knows he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." - Antoine de Saint-Exupery
Dude, the seminar was TWO DAYS LONG!
Also remember President Gore and President Kerry, the two Presidents of the media polls and the exit polls.
I don’t bow to anybody on math. Or snarky jokes. The fact is an analysis like this IS a joke. If it makes you feel good, fine. But don’t take it seriously. And jveritas’ claim that he “proved” something similar for Pennsylvania? That’s nutty-cuckoo.
McCain should continue to fight for Ohio and Florida. But Pennsylvania’s a waste of time. And there’s not much time to waste.
Look, I’ll say this ONE MORE TIME, for all these people out of PA thinking they know what’s going on in this state....
YOU DON’T!
If you think Fauxbama has this state won by 10+ points, you are incredibly ignorant about PA. Yes, PA has gone Blue since the election of GWB, but is not a North Eastern liberal state, its a Rust Belt Mid Atlantic State. Gore won the state by 3.5% (205k) Kerry by 140k (2.5%) and that was with the democratic base SOLIDLY behind them and the state machine firing everything it had and the kitchen sink for them.
Rendell is in the bag for Hillary and the state machine is only tokenly mobilized for Fauxbama. He doesn’t have the blue collar white democratic voters behind him... He’s also got issues with retiree democratic whites as well (the most reliable voting block on the planet). He is not going to win PA, let alone win it by 10+ points.
RNC and McCain are not spending time in PA, nor is Fauxbama buying ads at an absurd rate here because he thinks he’s got this locked up. Fauxbama is outspending McCain here at least 4 or 5 to 1 here today, now do you think if he thinks he’s up 10 or 15 he’d still be spending here like that? Be serious folks. The Polls are absolutely NOT capturing what’s going on on the ground here... they are laughably inaccurate.
No one of either party wins PA by 10 or 15 points, if you buy into that polling you really do need to get informed. This loves God, guns, America, and the military, Fauxbama has no chance of carrying this state, let alone to believe he is going to carry it by double digits.
I have a seventy year old aunt who is a lifelong Democrat residing in Columbiana county, Ohio. She hates President Bush but has already stated she will vote for McCain.
I’m also hearing of lifelong Democrats out of the Cleveland area that will vote McCain over 0dumbo.
Some people seem to think that ACORN was the only group doing voter registration or any of the ground work. They were only doing a small portion of it.
ACORN has registered 200,000 voters in Ohio since 2004. The Obama campaign has registered 600,000 since January. 94% of all eligible voters in the state are registered to vote. Using over simplified models based on poll percentages from 3 months ago, and the results of the 2004 election (which as far as this election is concerned could have happened 50 years ago) is very flawed formula.
I go to school in the most republican county in the state. There is a disgusting amount of support for Obama in a very conservative area. Right now I’m hoping Palin can help pick up one of the Kerry states or its going to be a depressing 4 years
Could someone translate this for me?
There's a prize!
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