Posted on 10/13/2008 11:41:15 AM PDT by jveritas
In the Ohio 2008 primaries, Hillary Clinton received 70% of the White democrats votes versus for Obama. In total Hillary Clinton received 1.1 million from the White voters in Ohio excluding the number of votes she received from the Republicans who participated in this primary.
According the most optimistic pro-Obama media polls at least 25% to 30% of Hillary Clinton voters will be voting for John McCain this November.
If we make a conservative assumption that only 20% of them will vote for John McCain then this will be 220,000 Hillary Clinton voters in Ohio will be voting for John MCain. These are reliable democrat voters who the vast majority of them have voted for John Kerry in 2004. Now if assume that at least 80% of them have voted for Kerry in 2004 i.e. 176,000 voters then Obama is a deficit of 176,000 x 2 = 352,000 voters compared to the votes that Kerry received in Ohio.
Kerry lost Ohio to President Bush by 118,000 votes and now Obama has a deficit of 352,000 votes among those who voted for Kerry. So if we assume that McCain will get all of President Bush votes in Ohio then Obama will be behind 352,000+118,000= 470,000 votes.
Obama has to overcome 470,000 votes McCain advantage by getting some of President Bush voters to vote for him or dramatically increase the black voters turn out from 2004. Those are almost impossible task for Obama to achieve.
Your analysis agrees very much to that of mine. It is common knowledge that 20% Hillary voters will not vote for Obama. This will hold true not only for Ohio but also for the other battleground states like PA,WI,MN and MI. I did a little research. Took the number of votes in those states in 2004. The problem in Ohio is that the Dem Sec.of State. She can work the state machine to manipulate votes. Keep our fingers crossed. I posted the analysis in another thread and posting again.
Actual votes
PA- Bush 2,793,847 Kerry 2,938,095
WI- Bush 1,478,120 Kerry 1,489,504
MN- Bush 1,346,695 Kerry 1,445,014
MI- Bush 2,313,746 Kerry 2,479,183
Then, I reduced Kerrys votes just by 10%. See how it looks now
PA- McCain 2,793,847 Obama 2,644,286
WI- McCain 1,478,120 Obama 1,340,554
MN- McCain 1,346,695 Obama 1,300,513
MI- McCain 2,313,746 Obama 2,231,265
John McCain will win all these 4 states narrowly. Add to this the Bradley effect. Looks good to me.
I have a theory about the polls. I think people haven’t bothered to rationally analyze the two sides and are answering pollsters with their “feeeelings”. As we get closer, they will have to start actually thinking and will vote accordingly.
Left brain, right brain kind of thing.
I could be way wrong, but it’s a thought.
No, but this could signal that Obama is in trouble and all the close races in states he will probably lose!
Maybe when you’ve been here loner than 3 DAYS you’ll understand.
Isn’t there some new law in Ohio, that those who registered could vote immediately? Was this the state where early voting started? So many abuses to the registration process I’ve lost track!! ;>)
Oops! Sorry about the double post...
;-D
No, however if he DOES win Ohio that is most likely game over for McCain.
NC =15 electoral vote, not enough for Obama to win.
Virginia = 13 electoral vote not enough for Obama to win.
Indiana = 11 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.
Colorado= 9 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.
Nevada = 5 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.
Rmemeber that Bush won Iowa and New Mexico in 2004. McCain is not winning either state in 2008. That, along with any of the above, wins it for Obama.
I am engineer.
Bush also won New Mexico. I think there may be a realistic chance for Colorado and New Mexico to go blue this year, but outside of that, despite poll numbers, I do not see it happening.
In all 5000 have voted in Ohio first week of early voting. That is not much at all.
Good to see the large crowds. Just wished it equated to rising poll numbers for McCain.
Rah-rah-rah
Siss-boom bah!
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Just stating a FACT, something you seem willing to overlook. I hope that Palin can drag McCain across the finish line, but that is asking a lot when McCain has dug his heals in.
I’m sure you are.
BTW gold’s gettin’ killed today.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.