Numbers Prove That An Obama Victory in Ohio Is Very Unlikely

October 13 2008 | jveritas

[MooseChic]

• Your analysis agrees very much to that of mine. It is common knowledge that 20% Hillary voters will not vote for Obama. This will hold true not only for Ohio but also for the other battleground states like PA,WI,MN and MI. I did a little research. Took the number of votes in those states in 2004. The problem in Ohio is that the Dem Sec.of State. She can work the state machine to manipulate votes. Keep our fingers crossed. I posted the analysis in another thread and posting again.
Actual votes
PA- Bush 2,793,847 Kerry 2,938,095
WI- Bush 1,478,120 Kerry 1,489,504
MN- Bush 1,346,695 Kerry 1,445,014
MI- Bush 2,313,746 Kerry 2,479,183
Then, I reduced Kerry’s votes just by 10%. See how it looks now
PA- McCain 2,793,847 Obama 2,644,286
WI- McCain 1,478,120 Obama 1,340,554
MN- McCain 1,346,695 Obama 1,300,513
MI- McCain 2,313,746 Obama 2,231,265
John McCain will win all these 4 states narrowly. Add to this the Bradley effect. Looks good to me.

[jveritas]

In the one week allowed of same day registration and vote in Ohio only 5000 people voted. The Obama campaign expected somewhere between 25,000 to 40,000 to vote.

[Not A Snowbird]

I have a theory about the polls. I think people haven’t bothered to rationally analyze the two sides and are answering pollsters with their “feeeelings”. As we get closer, they will have to start actually thinking and will vote accordingly.

Left brain, right brain kind of thing.

I could be way wrong, but it’s a thought.

[tallyhoe]

No, but this could signal that Obama is in trouble and all the close races in states he will probably lose!

[Cedric]

Maybe when you’ve been here loner than 3 DAYS you’ll understand.

[adingdangdoo]

Assuming he holds all HIS states. McCain is trying to pick off:

PA (if he gets this, O is in BIG trouble)
WI (where they're mad! they're REALLY mad!)
MN (where Franken may just turn the state red)
ME (sending both Sarah AND Todd)
NH

NH, ME and MN(!) are real possibilities. PA would be ideal, and WI would be a great bonus.

[Primetimedonna]

Isn’t there some new law in Ohio, that those who registered could vote immediately? Was this the state where early voting started? So many abuses to the registration process I’ve lost track!! ;>)

[adingdangdoo]

Oops! Sorry about the double post...

[Tanniker Smith]

Yeah, but didn't we program the voting machines?

;-D

[Mad Dawgg]

"Does Obama even NEED Ohio, though?"

No, however if he DOES win Ohio that is most likely game over for McCain.

[CatOwner]

President Bush has 286 electoral votes in 2004. 270 electoral votes are required to win.

NC =15 electoral vote, not enough for Obama to win.

Virginia = 13 electoral vote not enough for Obama to win.

Indiana = 11 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.

Colorado= 9 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.

Nevada = 5 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.

Rmemeber that Bush won Iowa and New Mexico in 2004. McCain is not winning either state in 2008. That, along with any of the above, wins it for Obama.

[jveritas]

I am engineer.

[Scotswife]

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net

[WildcatClan]

Bush also won New Mexico. I think there may be a realistic chance for Colorado and New Mexico to go blue this year, but outside of that, despite poll numbers, I do not see it happening.

[jveritas]

In all 5000 have voted in Ohio first week of early voting. That is not much at all.

[CatOwner]

Good to see the large crowds. Just wished it equated to rising poll numbers for McCain.

[Cedric]

That, along with any of the above, wins it for Obama.

Rah-rah-rah

Siss-boom bah!

[Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus]

I see a good 25 percent of Bush’s previous votes going over to the Democrats this time

Not. Gonna. Happen.

[CatOwner]

Just stating a FACT, something you seem willing to overlook. I hope that Palin can drag McCain across the finish line, but that is asking a lot when McCain has dug his heals in.

[Cedric]

I’m sure you are.

BTW gold’s gettin’ killed today.