Posted on 10/13/2008 11:41:15 AM PDT by jveritas
In the Ohio 2008 primaries, Hillary Clinton received 70% of the White democrats votes versus for Obama. In total Hillary Clinton received 1.1 million from the White voters in Ohio excluding the number of votes she received from the Republicans who participated in this primary.
According the most optimistic pro-Obama media polls at least 25% to 30% of Hillary Clinton voters will be voting for John McCain this November.
If we make a conservative assumption that only 20% of them will vote for John McCain then this will be 220,000 Hillary Clinton voters in Ohio will be voting for John MCain. These are reliable democrat voters who the vast majority of them have voted for John Kerry in 2004. Now if assume that at least 80% of them have voted for Kerry in 2004 i.e. 176,000 voters then Obama is a deficit of 176,000 x 2 = 352,000 voters compared to the votes that Kerry received in Ohio.
Kerry lost Ohio to President Bush by 118,000 votes and now Obama has a deficit of 352,000 votes among those who voted for Kerry. So if we assume that McCain will get all of President Bush votes in Ohio then Obama will be behind 352,000+118,000= 470,000 votes.
Obama has to overcome 470,000 votes McCain advantage by getting some of President Bush voters to vote for him or dramatically increase the black voters turn out from 2004. Those are almost impossible task for Obama to achieve.
Does Obama even NEED Ohio, though?
It’s not over till the welfare queen sings.
Without Ohio, McCain cannot win.
Nope. Just one of OH, FL, NC, IN, VA, CO, or NV does the trick for Obama.
>>Does Obama even NEED Ohio, though?<<
No, not today.
He probably will on November 4th though.
Come on Colorado and Nevada!!
newsflash most of them ALREADY VOTED MULTIPLE TIMES.
The bus of homless people need only stop at each registration spot and vote absentee.
50 voters 10 stops and repeat.
I just keep thinking of Hillaryclintonforum.org
The idea that McCain will take what Bush won in 2004...is probably false. The economy in the state has shifted in the past four years and I see a good 25 percent of Bush’s previous votes going over to the Democrats this time. As for the Hillary factor...it might be correct. McCain wins...but it’ll be a closer margin than what Bush had.
So, do you think McCain still has this pretty well wrapped up?!
I would like to have your sense of optimism.
Put down the pom poms.
Yes, BUT, those registering in Ohio could vote on the same day. Guy on the news bragged that he had voted 4 times on the same day. Sad, but true. They were being transported in Acorn vans.
NC =15 electoral vote, not enough for Obama to win.
Virginia = 13 electoral vote not enough for Obama to win.
Indiana = 11 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.
Colorado= 9 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.
Nevada = 5 electoral votes, not enough for Obama to win.
I love it when people work the numbers. Seems like a lot of theory and assumptions in there, though. Are you an economist?
According to the polls, he does not. I don’t lend a lot of gravitas to polls and even less this election. If Obama is leading, for example, in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico and these predictions see fruition.......................No, Obama doesn’t need Ohio.
Palin is pulling a crowd of 30,000-50,000 right now in VA!
Tell all your friend.
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