Posted on 11/03/2008 3:07:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
For those of you who have been following my prediction of a McCain-Palin landslide, here is my latest take. This article was posted yesterday on Real Clear Politics and resulted in over 25,000 hits on my website. It was cross posted on a half dozen more. I am going to copy in the tables from that article that have now been updated using today's averages shown in the no toss up map page at real clear politics. I have posted this article on real clear politics, but it has not come out on the front page because it just got the required 10 votes.
(Table at link)
What a difference 48 hours make. Now let's look at that same table on November 3rd and see what has changed.
(Table at link)
What leaps out at you is that Iowa has dropped off the table because the RCP average is fighting the trend and has gone from 11.6 to 15.3 points and is out of reach. On the other hand, Minnesota has gone from above 13 points down to 9.8 and now needs to be added to the table. Eight of the other states have dropped significantly in the RCP averages and two are unchanged. Now instead of McCain-Palin needing 493,636 PUMA votes to tie and 35,935 more to win, they only need 332,013 to tie and 34,276 more to win. I have changed the last two columns to reflect the changes in the RCP averages and the number of PUMA voters no longer required. I know a trend when I see one.
Even more important is how few PUMA voters in these eleven states are required for a McCain-Palin landslide. If you add up the PUMA's needed column in the second table, you will see that only an extra 507,231 more PUMA's are needed to sweep the table. That is a mere 873,520 PUMA's spread across eleven states are needed to produce a McCain-Palin landslide. Do you really want to tell me that there are not that many Hillary supporters who cannot vote for Obama-Biden in these eleven states out of 18,000,000 of them? Now who is drinking the Kool-Aid?
North Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. Do I really think that that McCain-Palin will carry all of these states? No, because I am worried that there are not enough PUMA's in New Mexico and because of its high Latino population. I think that Wisconsin is still too far out of reach unless a trend develops by tomorrow.
What I will bet my 45 year reputation on is that McCain-Palin will win by at least 80 electoral votes. That is because I am quite certain that McCain-Palin will carry the other nine states for a total of 309 electoral votes compared to 229 for Obama-Biden. In my first update today, I only added Minnesota to the group I thought McCain-Palin would carry. Looking at the trend in Colorado as opposed to the RCP average convinces me that it will go for McCain-Palin but only by a narrow margin. The same is true of Nevada. Here the Obama steam roller tactics in the Democratic Caucus produced enough PUMA voters to pull it off.
What will be interesting to see is how the pollsters and the media will react to this unbelievable upset. On the other hand, I think we all know what their reaction will be -- America is a racist country. No matter what they say, the real reasons will be (1) The DNC and the Obama folks dumped all over Hillary Clinton and then did not ask her to take the second slot, (2) America is simply not ready for a President who is so far out of the mainstream of political thought, (3) that Obama's constant playing of the race card cost him a lot of votes from people who did not like being called racists, (4) the media assuring the voters that Obama was a shoo-in because Americans are a stubborn lot and (5) Obama's attitude that his election was preordained.
UPDATE: Make that McCain-Palin 310 Obama-Biden 228. I have just been informed that I missed the fact that Sarah Palin took my advice and went to Bangor, Maine. Maine splits two of its electoral votes off and allocates them to the winner in each Congressional District. Congressional District 2 in Northern Maine will give McCain-Palin that one more vote for a margin of 81 electoral votes. I just got back from Maine and New Hampshire not to mention the fact that my branch of the Marston family is all from Machias, Maine.
RESPONSE TO READERS: Many of you have asked why the pollsters are not accounting for the PUMA Factor. Their models are built on the "normal" defection from a voter registering with one party and voting for the other one. Because the Democratic Party hosed Hillary big time, the are some very unhappy Democrats who will not vote for Obama. This is not normal and is an effect causing a mistake of 7 to 8 % in the polling by counting Democrats as voting for Obama when they are going to vote for McCain. I have lost count of how many websites are devoted to the PUMA phenomenon, but it is way over 100. Like Br'er Rabbit, they are lying low and are about to claw up Obama for what he did to Hillary. Of course, it helps that there is a female on the Republican ticket which gives these folks one more reason to forget about party unity even if they do not agree with her positions.
PS: I live in Prescott, Arizona and John McCain will be here tonight. Needless to say, I am going to the rally. I will tell him about how enthused you all are if I get the chance.
How to get through tomorrow.......?......first - pray for God’s mercy on the USA - Second, don’t watch t.v. - get your information on FR....go vote! We’ll win this!
I have it a MINIMUM of 311/312, it could go MUCH higher.
Sarah has been traveling all over Small Town USA and touching these people. She is connecting. This is how you win. You do local papers and news and radio stations, as well as the bigger cities.
Since Sarah came on board, I haven't doubted. She was and is the game-changer. She inspires people—heck, she inspires McCain. He is so much more alive since he brought her on board.
Sorry... there are no Republican cat owners! Thanks for the words.
How reliable is this guy??
He’s from Arizona.
Basically these computer poll models assume registered dems will vote dem and registered Pubbies will vote Republican.
There’s NO WAY all dems will vote thier party as much as republicans will.
I’ve got two neighbors registered as dems voting for McCain. Plus all the PUMA’s.
The numbers here in Florida back that up with more dems voting early than republicans and yet McCain is winning.
I totally agree with this assessment.
waking up means you will be able to sleep. I took Wed. off because I know I won't be able to sleep.
Don’t know. Never heard of him. But, he says 45 year rep he will place on the line. Not sure what his 45 year rep is.
what do you make of the Rove map showing obama getting 338? that seems ridiculous. why isn’t rove breaking down any of the numbers?
I agree. Obama needs all of what Kerry got, and some of what Bush got in order to win. The PUMA’s make that impossible. Add to that the bitter clingers, and many who think bambi is just too far left for them, and bambi is toast. This isn’t rocket science, its basic political analysis. The dems will hand this election to Mac.
Thank God.
I was shaking a pom-pom for McCain today at his rally in Moon Township PA (outside Pittsburgh at an airplane hangar.) It was magnificent
Hey Keystoners: your country needs you.
not sure... I cannot figure out from his analysis why he thinks polling does not account for PUMAs defecting? It can really only be explained by two factors: 1) PUMAs lying to pollsters or 2) PUMAs not responding to pollsters (or not answering the phone). I wish his analysis to be accurate, but I do not see how a (presumably) legit polling operation would not catch a PUMA shift into the McPalin camp. Either PUMAs are playing games, or he seriously overestimates the PUMA effect. Someone please tell me I’m wrong, or have missed the ‘operation chaos’ part of the PUMA plan.
Pretty much a mirror image of what Rove is saying. This author is putting an awful lot of faith in the PUMA vote and I hope he’s right.
Rove is hoping he doesn’t get a show trial and imprisonment if bambi wins. He will anyway, but I guess kissing up is worth a try.......
Good riddance.
Operation Chaos was HUGE here in TX.
As a result, the poll weighing has been tilted making dem numbers look way better than reality.
I have NO CLUE what’s going on with his graphs and $hit but he says we only need 278,961 PUMA votes to tie?
The founder of PUMA says there are at least 4.5 million PUMA voters.
I don’t get this stuff but if he is right, he will be a SUPERSTAR with his great analyst com Wednesday.
probably wishful thinking..... Off to go smoke another cig sniff sniff....
If Mr Marston is right, there's easy money to be made on Intrade. You can buy McCain for 9.8, vs 90.6 for Bambi.
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