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My guess as to when the current market downturn will end and markets will recover. (Vanity)
U.S. Treasury Direct ^ | 8.4.11 | jdsteel

Posted on 08/04/2011 9:59:33 AM PDT by jdsteel

$16 Billion of 30 year notes being auctioned on the 11th. By total coincidence I think the realization that we aren't going to hell in a handbasket will happen right around that time.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: debt; markets; treasuryauction
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1 posted on 08/04/2011 9:59:35 AM PDT by jdsteel
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To: jdsteel

November 2012 is my best guess.


2 posted on 08/04/2011 10:03:27 AM PDT by Retired Greyhound
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To: jdsteel

Jan 21, 2013 (if we make it that far)


3 posted on 08/04/2011 10:04:43 AM PDT by Hoodat (Yet in all these things we are more than conquerors through Him who loved us. - (Rom 8:37))
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To: jdsteel

I’ll have some of what you’re having. ;-)


4 posted on 08/04/2011 10:06:12 AM PDT by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: jdsteel

The next, and shorter, dead cat bounce will begin the instant QE3 is a certainty.


5 posted on 08/04/2011 10:07:48 AM PDT by Jack of all Trades (Hold your face to the light, even though for the moment you do not see.)
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To: jdsteel

Do you think the interest rate on the T-bills will be up significantly?


6 posted on 08/04/2011 10:08:26 AM PDT by RadiationRomeo (Step into my mind and glimpse the madness that is me)
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To: jdsteel

The 12th of Never.


7 posted on 08/04/2011 10:08:59 AM PDT by crosshairs (If Sharia Law becomes the law of the land, heads are gonna roll.)
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To: jdsteel

short-term cycles ssuggest a high in treasurie between the 3rd/5th [may have seen the high today in treasuries]. They should selloff into the August 8th/12th time frame followed by a big rally over the next 4 weeks. Treasuries are going much higher and stocks will take out the 2008 lows between now and Q4-2012. They will not recover the highs until 2018. This one is a generational thing. There is a New Normal. We all need to learn how to do more with less.


8 posted on 08/04/2011 10:12:08 AM PDT by Why So Serious (There is no cure for stupidity!!!)
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To: Jack of all Trades

QE3 will be the fed coming out and saying the they will buy S&P contracts everyday for 6 months. What has to happen can be postponed, but it still has to happen! QE1 and QE2 did nothing. He better just start flying the helicopter right now!


9 posted on 08/04/2011 10:14:12 AM PDT by Why So Serious (There is no cure for stupidity!!!)
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To: jdsteel

Dec 21st 2012


10 posted on 08/04/2011 10:14:28 AM PDT by clamper1797 (Hoping to have some change left)
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To: jdsteel

The only way out of this mess is to remove not only every elected democrat and rino, but whe have to remove every unelected socialist and democrat bureacrat from any government job AND eliminate all public unions.


11 posted on 08/04/2011 10:15:27 AM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: longtermmemmory

Every individual or group who receives a benefit or check from the government is a member of a “public union”. Combine that with the ones on the payrolls to assure that those who are not continue to to get theirs, that would be about half of the country.


12 posted on 08/04/2011 10:21:16 AM PDT by blackdog (The mystery of government is not how Washington works but how to make it stop)
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To: jdsteel
Any bets on what % of the t-bills will be bought by the Fed?
75%, 90%, all?
13 posted on 08/04/2011 10:25:28 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: jdsteel
When 'supply < demand'

(Give or take)

14 posted on 08/04/2011 10:29:30 AM PDT by Glenn (iamtheresistance.org)
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To: jdsteel

Why is silver and gold tanking?


15 posted on 08/04/2011 10:29:33 AM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: Terry Mross

Margins reduced


16 posted on 08/04/2011 10:35:01 AM PDT by Errant
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To: Terry Mross

Profit takers.

Gold will go back up and and hover between $1685-$1697.00 for about a week. Then around the 15th (maybe earlier) it WILL break $1700!

Just my opinion.


17 posted on 08/04/2011 10:40:54 AM PDT by panaxanax (0bama >>WORST PRESIDENT EVER.)
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To: crosshairs

...and that’s a long, long time.”

I don’t think the U.S. markets will ever recover. IMO, when the markets recover on our soil, we will no longer BE the United States of America.


18 posted on 08/04/2011 10:42:21 AM PDT by madison10
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To: Errant

And at what price do you think people will start buying?

It seems right now there’s no place to put your money. Silver and gold tanks. Stocks tank. The dollar tanks. Guess we could buy some foriegn currency. But which one?


19 posted on 08/04/2011 10:42:47 AM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: clamper1797

Actually Dec 21, 2012 will be the day they all close for good.


20 posted on 08/04/2011 10:49:58 AM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: Terry Mross

Someone suggested Swiss Francs to me a few days ago, and I have been looking into them since. So far, I like what I see.


21 posted on 08/04/2011 10:52:23 AM PDT by comebacknewt ((on second thought, never mind, go away again Newt))
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To: comebacknewt

watch out there...the Swiss are freaking out b/c everyone is running to their currency and making it to strong! So there might be some wild swings!


22 posted on 08/04/2011 10:59:15 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: jdsteel

When Soros has decided he’s made enough money on his short positions . . .


23 posted on 08/04/2011 11:02:38 AM PDT by filbert (More filbert at http://www.medary.com--GAME ON!!!)
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To: Terry Mross

DEFLATION! Coming to an economy near you. Bernanke failed the application of his studies


24 posted on 08/04/2011 11:09:15 AM PDT by Why So Serious (There is no cure for stupidity!!!)
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To: comebacknewt

They are starting to print money now too. Every Central bank in the world with any amount of blank paper and ink has figured out the game. It is a currency race to the basement.


25 posted on 08/04/2011 11:11:33 AM PDT by Why So Serious (There is no cure for stupidity!!!)
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To: jdsteel

ping for later


26 posted on 08/04/2011 11:13:40 AM PDT by Hang'emAll (")
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To: jdsteel

What you’re seeing is a replay of the events that led up to the autumn of 2008, specifically European bank instability. The word is now out in the open: the EU cannot prop up Italy and Spain. They just can’t. The bond markets are telling these two deadbeats that they want confiscatory yields to buy their crap paper.

Italy has a huge debt book to roll over in the next three years. Hundreds of billions of Euros. The German treasury and banks don’t have enough money to backstop Greece, much less Italy and then Spain.

As of today, the FSA in the UK has asked Brit banks for a disclosure of their positions to Belgium, because it looks like Belgium is next on the block.

As bad as the stock market gets, as bad as the commodities markets get... pay attention to the bond markets. The bond markets are where you see the real action, the deep currents in the financial markets are there.


27 posted on 08/04/2011 11:21:54 AM PDT by NVDave
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To: Terry Mross
A major crash day like today, with everything down except bonds and USD, is 100% guaranteed to trigger margin calls in thousands of accounts. Most traders will meet these margin calls by liquidating lots of long positions, thus inducing sharp downmoves in mkts that are/were theoretically unaffected by the crash, i.e. gold and silver. You will note that gold and silver were higher earlier today; the selling began as traders began to see that they were undermargined and started liquidating positions.

Silver, being natively more volatile than gold, has been taking a bigger hit than gold, and will continue to do so for the duration of the crash scenario. Speaking historically, these types of sharp downmoves have a strong tendency to last either 2 or 5 trading days (3 and 4 days hardly ever come up for these types of moves; very odd indeed).

Good trading to you!

28 posted on 08/04/2011 11:24:44 AM PDT by SAJ (Zerobama -- a phony and a prick, therefore a dildo)
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To: SAJ

Silver is now down 7.4%. A buying opportunity may be coming up shortly.


29 posted on 08/04/2011 11:32:51 AM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: Terry Mross
Individuals, hedge funds, and sovereign banks have been buying gold and silver like crazy. Look at the price of gold and silver now compared to last year or the year before.

You're obviously not a trader and neither am I now. I'm not offering advice, but what I've done is to diversify to some extent and not lose sleep over the coming volatility.

What you move your wealth into, depends upon the amount of wealth you have. That said, common sense of priority applies no matter how much you have.

By that I mean take care of the essentials first (food, water, shelter, clothing, protection, friendships/networking, energy, communication, transportation, tools, medical and at least some REAL money that you can easily get to). Prepare for dealing with the absolute worst case scenario (living in basements, city sewers, caves, tunnels, deserts, plains and forests - man has survived thousands of years). It costs the least and every other possible scenario can be built from that base of preparation.

After getting that out of the way and back to what to do with remaining wealth, diversify (PM (physical & certificates), property, land, means of production, some cash, high value stocks).

Best alternative currency, IMO, is the Canadian dollar (CAD). Canada is next door and close enough for some to go there and open a banking account. Keep it below 10K or suffer reporting requirements. Others currencies to look at are AUD, NZD, NOK, SGD, and CHF to name a few.

Failure to reign in the spending last week signaled to me that we're on the same path as ALL other countries in history who eventually spent their way into oblivion.

I don't like saying that. Can it be reversed? I seriously doubt it. I'm not saying we shouldn't do our best to try. Our best chance is to have a significant portion of the populace prepared and not dependent on government if a collapse occurs.

30 posted on 08/04/2011 11:38:38 AM PDT by Errant
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To: Terry Mross

silver and gold down because of margin calls in equities - people needed to pull money from safe-haven’s to get out of equities fast.


31 posted on 08/04/2011 11:39:33 AM PDT by ImaGraftedBranch (...By reading this, you've collapsed my wave function. Thanks.)
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To: SAJ

The thought of buying on margin always gave me the willies.

Days like today make being a wallflower not such a bad thing.


32 posted on 08/04/2011 11:40:10 AM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik ("The trouble with internet quotations is that you don't know if they are true"-Abraham Lincoln.)
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To: Jim from C-Town

When no one but the fed buys the T-bills the stock market will crash much worse than today. The Swiss and the Chinese might buy some early T-bills at 6% but that will cause the fed to intervene and buy them at bargain prices.


33 posted on 08/04/2011 11:40:13 AM PDT by RadiationRomeo (Step into my mind and glimpse the madness that is me)
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To: Terry Mross; Errant

Is it just coincidence that this is Shark Week on the Discovery Channel? I think not. My lunch has been ate by Wall Street. I know . . . I know . I should’ve sold stocks last week. I’m holding tight but this is stomach churning to see.


34 posted on 08/04/2011 11:47:47 AM PDT by BipolarBob (Yes I backed over the vampire but I swear I didn't see him in the rearview mirror.)
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To: ImaGraftedBranch; Errant

Thanks, guys.

I’ve got the food, water, guns and ammo.


35 posted on 08/04/2011 11:48:12 AM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: BipolarBob

Like I said, reminds me of Doug Heffernan. Actually, I don’t have stocks. It’s gut wrenching anyway.

But, like an old man once told me, “I made money today. Gold went down and I don’t have any.”


36 posted on 08/04/2011 11:50:22 AM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: BipolarBob

I know how you feel. Been there, done that. If you have high value stocks, once people realise their dollars are going to be worth less, the price should rise as folks start buying stocks again. That’s just a guess...


37 posted on 08/04/2011 11:50:35 AM PDT by Errant
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To: Terry Mross
Yes, it may. However, in this current situation, at least until the margin calls have played out, buying the dip looks more to me like -- as we traders say -- trying to catch a falling knife.

The trade I like right this minute is buying a straddle on Swiss Franc, specifically the Dec 130.50 strike.

Good trading to you!

38 posted on 08/04/2011 11:51:39 AM PDT by SAJ (Zerobama -- a phony and a prick, therefore a dildo)
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To: SnuffaBolshevik

You should consider trading options. They are all-cash items that offer some leverage. A long options position cannot ever, by rule, have a margin call.


39 posted on 08/04/2011 11:53:26 AM PDT by SAJ (Zerobama -- a phony and a prick, therefore a dildo)
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To: ImaGraftedBranch

Also, stacks of margin calls in futures accounts will be sent out today, and the traders know it and are liquidating positions left and right. Virtually every mkt is down except for bonds, USD and hogs (for some odd reason). The risk-on traders are having their heads handed to them today.


40 posted on 08/04/2011 11:59:38 AM PDT by SAJ (Zerobama -- a phony and a prick, therefore a dildo)
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To: SAJ
Another big reason gold and silver are down.

Problems in Europe contributing to rising dollar.

41 posted on 08/04/2011 12:06:53 PM PDT by Errant
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42 posted on 08/04/2011 12:14:03 PM PDT by TheOldLady (FReepmail me to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list.)
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To: Errant

Sure. The directional correlation between USD and gold has been .07 over the past 2 years. The other way to say this is that, on a given trading day, 93% of the time USD and gold move in opposite directions.


43 posted on 08/04/2011 12:21:00 PM PDT by SAJ (Zerobama -- a phony and a prick, therefore a dildo)
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To: Terry Mross

Why is silver and gold tanking?


I’m not sure I’d say that being 1% below yesterday’s all-time record high closing price is “tanking.”

The other answer is that those markets are highly manipulated by big name firms on wall street that have political and financial reasons to want to artificially depress precious metals prices.


44 posted on 08/04/2011 1:14:53 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Government borrowing is Taxation without Representation)
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To: RadiationRomeo
Do you think the interest rate on the T-bills will be up significantly?

Please understand that this is just IMHO...so don't "bank" on it. I think the T-bills will sell right around where they are. I don't think we will see higher interest rates for the next 6 mos or so at least.

45 posted on 08/04/2011 1:17:15 PM PDT by jdsteel (I like the way the words "Palin for President" make progressives apoplectic.)
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To: Terry Mross

Silver is now down 7.4%. A buying opportunity may be coming up shortly.


I’d say that this IS a buying opportunity.

It’s about 20% down from April highs, which is a correction of a level that has occurred only about 7 times in the last 10-year run-up.

I’d also look at platinum, which is rarely within 5% of the price of gold as it is now, and has a history of readily trading at double gold’s price.


46 posted on 08/04/2011 1:20:24 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Government borrowing is Taxation without Representation)
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To: Jim from C-Town
Any bets on what % of the t-bills will be bought by the Fed? 75%, 90%, all?

Whatever is left over, for sure. But due to this month's "flight to quality" I'll bet the Fed won't have to soak up much. I'll say it again; just IMHO, don't "bank" on it.

47 posted on 08/04/2011 1:20:37 PM PDT by jdsteel (I like the way the words "Palin for President" make progressives apoplectic.)
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To: Beelzebubba

I don’t think yesterday was an all time high on silver.


48 posted on 08/04/2011 1:24:56 PM PDT by Terry Mross (I'll only vote for a SECOND party.)
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To: Why So Serious
There is a New Normal. We all need to learn how to do more with less.

We'll see in a couple of weeks how crazy I am!

49 posted on 08/04/2011 1:26:16 PM PDT by jdsteel (I like the way the words "Palin for President" make progressives apoplectic.)
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To: BipolarBob

Source

50 posted on 08/04/2011 3:46:49 PM PDT by Errant
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