Posted on 11/03/2011 12:26:21 PM PDT by neverdem
There's no telling who the Republican presidential nominee will be, even though the White House thinks it has a pretty good idea. But even if Mitt Romney squares off against Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, one factor might throw off any voter-modeling that either campaign could do ahead of time -- and wildly.
The real unknown in next year's presidential race is whether a viable third-party candidate will enter the race. It's not just the potential that Ron Paul would launch a general election bid -- even though he’s said...
--snip--
Asked how likely an Americans Elect ticket would be to cross that threshold, Democratic strategist Doug Schoen pointed out that Ross Perot did it twice -- in 1992 and 1996 -- and that polls indicate that about three in five voters are open to a third-party candidate.
Another questioner pointed out, however, that such candidacies can influence an election’s outcome by throwing it to the party that might have lost without the extra help. Schoen complained that one thing both Democratic and Republican strategists agree on now is that a third-party effort of this kind is “best saved for another day.”
It remains to be seen whether any credible politicians actually will join the effort, but it is a reminder that the contest might not be so cut-and-dried as to offer a clear-cut choice between the two parties. A third-party ticket that leans to the right has the potential to seal a second term for President Obama if it siphons off votes from the GOP ticket. And an Americans Elect ticket with a pair of moderates could drain Obama’s vote share and throw the election to the Republican. Either way, the close of the Republican primary season next year might not make predicting the outcome any easier.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Hey, they could run Mittens and Al gore, since they both believe in gore bull warming!
Yes, but what if there are FOUR candidates (from left to right):
Democrat/Liberal/Socialist/Communist Party - 0bambi/Old Joe
Moderate - Bloomberg/Castle
GOP - Romney/Huntsman
Conservative/Tea Party - Palin/Cain or Palin/Gingrich
NOW it gets interesting.
Besides, there's no such thing as a "Moderate Liberal", IMHO.
Run a Trump/Bloomberg ticket in the states of New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Florida.
I will do the same.
Rasmussen had a national poll out today and in the details he said that 12% of Pubs said they will not vote for Romney no matter what and another 16% were not likely to vote for Romney against obama. I was surprised the %'s were not higher, but then a lot of voters still don't know how liberal he is.
If the poll is accurate and Romney loses half of the not likely to group he's down 20% of the Pubs. I don't see him picking up enough independents and Rats to make up that %. If any of the other candidates end up with the nomination I don't see them losing that kind of a %.
That’s not clear to me at all; the Leftist “True Believers” hate Obama as much as we do, and see no difference between him and Romney. So if Romney’s the nominee they have nothing to loose by voting for a independent. That said, it would be foolish of them to do so; there are more pure conservatives in this country than pure progressives.
If Romney’s the nominee I expect a four-way race. The Conservative candidate will probably win, with about 35% of the vote. It’ll be a squeaker, though.
But why, Oh Why do the Republicans have to have open primaries?
The Democratic “machine” might want a fourth-party hard left presidential candidate. Why? Enthusiasm. If the choice is Romney vs. Obama, the Democratic base mostly stays home, and the Dems get SLAUGHTERED down ballet.
At this point the Dems know the presidency is probably lost unless the economy turns around quick. But they want to hold the Senate, and not get blown out in house races, either. A Charismatic lefty independent presidential candidate gets their base to the polls. They’ll need that, very badly, if Romney is our nominee.
If a real conservative is our nominee they can use fear to motivate their base....
Jackson/Sharpton 2012!
Those two race-baiters are competitive and don’t like each other. And Sharpton would never agree to be Je$$e’s VP though he might agree to let Je$$e be his.
Thanks neverdem.
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