Skip to comments.Math of delegate counts for the remaining 4 candidates.
Posted on 03/23/2012 8:25:26 PM PDT by entropy12
By April 24th we can accurately predict if we get a brokered convention in 2012.
Romney currently has 497, Santorum has 183, Newt has 135 Committed delegates according to Wiki. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
I am assuming Santorum will do really well through April 24th and win 50% of delegates. Romney could get 30% and Newt & Paul each get 10%.
If Santorum wins 50% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 183+.50x401 =384 delegates.
If Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 497 + .30x401= 617 delegates.
After April 24th, there are 796 delegates remaining to be won.
Santorum needs to win (1144-384)/796 x 100 = 95.5% of remaining delegates to get to 1144. Mathematically possible, in reality, impossible.
Romney needs to win (1144-617)/796 x 100 = 66% of remaining delegates. Mathematically possible, in reality improbable.
Conclusion? Unless the candidates running make successful deals, we are going to a brokered convention. We will end up with a candidate sitting on the sidelines.
I want Myth’s blood on the convention floor at Tampa Bay.
This is exactly why Newt should stay in.
Yes, absolutely Newt should stay in because it looks pretty close to impossible for Santorum to get to 1144, and Mittens will have a “seriously” difficult time reaching 1144 if Newt stays in soaking up delegates.
The idea that Santorum will do really well through April 24 looks to me like wishful thinking. The primaries through April 24 are Wisconsin, Maryland, DC, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware. Romney figures to win every one except for Pennsylvania.
I was trying to give hope to Santorum supporters. You may be right and if you are, that will make mathematically impossible for Santorum to get 1144.
Sorry, I left out Louisiana, which Santorum also figures to win.
While your math seems to be accurate, your premises may be lacking.
I am quite aware that many upcoming states will allocate delegates by congressional districts (WTA-CD). And 4 are Winner take all. The WTA-CD states could conceivably have candidates splitting delegates by winning separate districts.
“Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th”
This is what worries me. I think Mittens may get 215+ delegates through Apr 24. Most of those states want be friendly to Newt or Santorum.
The purpose of my math based post is to show that Santorum has extremely improbable path to 1144. If Newt stays in, it becomes more difficult for Romney to secure 1144 in my opinion because Newt could win some congressional districts depriving Romney of delegates.
We Agree. Without a major mistake by Mittens it will be next to impossible for Santorum to reach 1144. People are not doing the Math.
A major mistake by Santorum could give Mittens the 1144 by May 15.
This is a profoundly silly assumption.
Did you even bother to to look at the states from Louisiana until April 24?
Wisconsin - winner take all, Romney up 8 in the polls.
DC - winner take all. Romney gets all the delegates.
Maryland, winner take all, Romney gets all the delegates.
Missouri is a non-binding caucus, don't understand the system there:
New York: Proportional, but Romney will get a big majority of a crapload of delegates.
Pennslyvania - Santorum will win but Romney will still get some delegates, I bet.
Connecticut - All to Romney
Rhode Island - All to Romney
Deleware, winner take all, all to Romney.
Analyis does not consist of picking an impossible event that you invent evidence for in order to fantasize about it happening. It's logical, objective evaluation of the facts.
I have more chance of becoming direction of the Institute for Creation Research than there is chance there is a brokered convention.
If one were to generously give Santorum WI, most of LA & PA, plus a piece of NY, maybe he takes 140 to Mitten's 235.
But if Mittens takes WI (likely given Illinois), takes MD (which tilts urban these days), and gets over 50% in NY (less likely but not improbable), best Santorum can manage is something like 75 to Mitten's 300.
Super Tuesday II is the last chance to derail Mittens and yet it figures to be his best day of the primary season. Only the GOP could devise this system.
I used numbers from Wiki. There is some confusion between committed and uncommitted numbers. So all counts are tentative, however close enough for making a hypothesis.
Please see my post #12.
And that’s the real point.
We are faced with just two probable outcomes:
1. Romney wins 1144 before the convention and becomes the nominee.
2. The other candidates between them pull enough delegates to prevent this from happening, and we have an open convention.
The respective gameplans are obvious: Romney will push as hard as possible and start to act like the nominee, e.g. pivot to Obama, the others should stay focused on Romney.
There is an RNC rule that to be considered, the candidate must have won in five states.
Oh OK! So if Newt can not win 5 states, he can at least help keep Romney from reaching 1144 by winning a few delegates in many states. Polls have shown that if Newt drops out half his voters go to Romney.
I mean, these campaigns don't just happen on their own accord and you don't expect Newt to go into 20 years of personal debt and sell everything he owns, do you, to criss cross the USA and run TV/radio ads and stage events and do GOTV?
I don’t care. Any way that doesn’t give us Romney.