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Math of delegate counts for the remaining 4 candidates.
03/23/2012 | Original Poster

Posted on 03/23/2012 8:25:26 PM PDT by entropy12

By April 24th we can accurately predict if we get a brokered convention in 2012.

KEYWORDS: convention; delegates; romney; santorum
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By April 24th, we will know results of LA, MD, DC, WI, CT, DE, NY, PA & RI. That is a total of 401 delegates.

Romney currently has 497, Santorum has 183, Newt has 135 Committed delegates according to Wiki. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

I am assuming Santorum will do really well through April 24th and win 50% of delegates. Romney could get 30% and Newt & Paul each get 10%.

If Santorum wins 50% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 183+.50x401 =384 delegates.

If Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th, he will have 497 + .30x401= 617 delegates.

After April 24th, there are 796 delegates remaining to be won.

Santorum needs to win (1144-384)/796 x 100 = 95.5% of remaining delegates to get to 1144. Mathematically possible, in reality, impossible.

Romney needs to win (1144-617)/796 x 100 = 66% of remaining delegates. Mathematically possible, in reality improbable.

Conclusion? Unless the candidates running make successful deals, we are going to a brokered convention. We will end up with a candidate sitting on the sidelines.

1 posted on 03/23/2012 8:25:32 PM PDT by entropy12

To: entropy12

I want Myth’s blood on the convention floor at Tampa Bay.

2 posted on 03/23/2012 8:26:38 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)

To: E. Pluribus Unum

This is exactly why Newt should stay in.

3 posted on 03/23/2012 8:27:29 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the sociopath.)

To: E. Pluribus Unum

Dayhum ....

4 posted on 03/23/2012 8:30:49 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)

To: E. Pluribus Unum

Yes, absolutely Newt should stay in because it looks pretty close to impossible for Santorum to get to 1144, and Mittens will have a “seriously” difficult time reaching 1144 if Newt stays in soaking up delegates.

5 posted on 03/23/2012 8:35:08 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes \$150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)

To: entropy12

The idea that Santorum will do really well through April 24 looks to me like wishful thinking. The primaries through April 24 are Wisconsin, Maryland, DC, New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware. Romney figures to win every one except for Pennsylvania.

6 posted on 03/23/2012 8:36:35 PM PDT by december12

To: december12

I was trying to give hope to Santorum supporters. You may be right and if you are, that will make mathematically impossible for Santorum to get 1144.

7 posted on 03/23/2012 8:38:33 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes \$150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)

Sorry, I left out Louisiana, which Santorum also figures to win.

8 posted on 03/23/2012 8:39:38 PM PDT by december12

To: entropy12
Keep in mind that delegates are not allocated by % of the popular vote. In some of the states already contested... a candidate could have won the popular vote by a handfull and yet won all of the delegates. I.e. winning each congressional district by one vote.

While your math seems to be accurate, your premises may be lacking.

9 posted on 03/23/2012 8:40:07 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)

To: Positive

I am quite aware that many upcoming states will allocate delegates by congressional districts (WTA-CD). And 4 are Winner take all. The WTA-CD states could conceivably have candidates splitting delegates by winning separate districts.

10 posted on 03/23/2012 8:43:49 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes \$150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)

To: entropy12

“Romney wins 30% of delegates through April 24th”

This is what worries me. I think Mittens may get 215+ delegates through Apr 24. Most of those states want be friendly to Newt or Santorum.

11 posted on 03/23/2012 8:44:36 PM PDT by Bailee

To: Bailee

The purpose of my math based post is to show that Santorum has extremely improbable path to 1144. If Newt stays in, it becomes more difficult for Romney to secure 1144 in my opinion because Newt could win some congressional districts depriving Romney of delegates.

12 posted on 03/23/2012 8:49:10 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes \$150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)

To: entropy12

We Agree. Without a major mistake by Mittens it will be next to impossible for Santorum to reach 1144. People are not doing the Math.

A major mistake by Santorum could give Mittens the 1144 by May 15.

13 posted on 03/23/2012 8:55:55 PM PDT by Bailee

To: entropy12
I am assuming Santorum will do really well through April 24th and win 50% of delegates. Romney could get 30% and Newt & Paul each get 10%.

This is a profoundly silly assumption.

Did you even bother to to look at the states from Louisiana until April 24?

Wisconsin - winner take all, Romney up 8 in the polls.

DC - winner take all. Romney gets all the delegates.

Maryland, winner take all, Romney gets all the delegates.

Missouri is a non-binding caucus, don't understand the system there:

New York: Proportional, but Romney will get a big majority of a crapload of delegates.

Pennslyvania - Santorum will win but Romney will still get some delegates, I bet.

Connecticut - All to Romney

Rhode Island - All to Romney

Deleware, winner take all, all to Romney.

Analyis does not consist of picking an impossible event that you invent evidence for in order to fantasize about it happening. It's logical, objective evaluation of the facts.

I have more chance of becoming direction of the Institute for Creation Research than there is chance there is a brokered convention.

14 posted on 03/23/2012 9:02:33 PM PDT by Strategerist

To: entropy12
Where are you getting 401?

• LA - 46 (Proportional)
• MD - 37 (WTA)
• DC - 19 (Santorum not on ballot)
• WI - 42 (WTA)
• CT - 28 (Modified WTA)
• DE - 17 (WTA)
• NY - 95 (Modified WTA, but 50.1% = WTA)
• PA - 72 (Beauty Contest)
• RI - 19 (Proportional)
That's 375.

If one were to generously give Santorum WI, most of LA & PA, plus a piece of NY, maybe he takes 140 to Mitten's 235.

But if Mittens takes WI (likely given Illinois), takes MD (which tilts urban these days), and gets over 50% in NY (less likely but not improbable), best Santorum can manage is something like 75 to Mitten's 300.

Super Tuesday II is the last chance to derail Mittens and yet it figures to be his best day of the primary season. Only the GOP could devise this system.

15 posted on 03/23/2012 9:11:37 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)

To: StAnDeliver

I used numbers from Wiki. There is some confusion between committed and uncommitted numbers. So all counts are tentative, however close enough for making a hypothesis.

16 posted on 03/23/2012 9:18:24 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes \$150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)

To: Strategerist

17 posted on 03/23/2012 9:20:40 PM PDT by entropy12 (Every tax payer now owes \$150,000 towards the national debt. We are worse than broke.)

To: Bailee

And that’s the real point.

We are faced with just two probable outcomes:

1. Romney wins 1144 before the convention and becomes the nominee.

2. The other candidates between them pull enough delegates to prevent this from happening, and we have an open convention.

The respective gameplans are obvious: Romney will push as hard as possible and start to act like the nominee, e.g. pivot to Obama, the others should stay focused on Romney.

18 posted on 03/23/2012 9:46:08 PM PDT by bigbob

To: entropy12
The Green Papers tracks all delegates, including supernumerary.
19 posted on 03/23/2012 9:48:16 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)

To: entropy12

There is an RNC rule that to be considered, the candidate must have won in five states.

20 posted on 03/23/2012 9:54:57 PM PDT by jessduntno ("Newt Gingrich was part of the Reagan Revolution's Murderers' Row." - Jeffrey Lord, Reagan Admin.)