Skip to comments.The UNSKEWED Projection of the 2012 Presidential Race
Posted on 10/25/2012 11:55:14 AM PDT by LucianOfSamasota
The QStarNews projection of the 2012 presidential race sees Mitt Romney being elected the next president of the United States with 53.63 percent of the popular vote and 359 electoral votes to President Obama's 45.92 percent and 179 electoral votes.
QStarNews predicts the turnout nationally will includes 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. QStarNews predicts turnout will rise by about four percent, or a total of about 130,955,000 voters including about 600,000 for third party candidates and the rest going to Romney and Obama.
Methodology: For EACH state, all of the following information was considered: results from the last four elections averaged together, recent political trends in that state (such as Republicans winning control of both houses of the state legislature in 2010 in Maine and New Hampshire), recent trends in demographic makeup that affect the politics of the state (such as the growth of hispanics in Colorado causing the Democratic Party to become more competitive), and the degree to which one or both of the major campaigns are targetting that state, such as both campaigns making Ohio the most important state and campaigning there more than any other state, and any other relevant political factors and data such as public polls from a variety of pollling firms, as well as data from the QStarNews polls of the presidential race. From all of this information a percentage breakdown of each state is calculated between Romney and Obama. This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote.
Perhaps some of the most surprising states to some will be the following:
(Excerpt) Read more at unskewedpolls.com ...
I think this is possible if everything breaks right. I love it that Oregon and Minnesota and Michigan go red. No one is expecting that. Maine could even tip. The Left will be in complete meltdown.
And add to that a man who most likely wasn't born in the United states, and, if so, is probably not even an American citizen.
What kind of a dumbed down electorate do we have if they elected him once and we still have to be concerned about the possibility of a second term!!!
Well I hope so but off year elections don’t always indicate presidential elections
Boobs who don’t realize congress matters vote ONLY in the presidential elections
Democrats got slaughtered in 94
Clinton won in 96
But the economy was booming then
“Is anyone old enough to remember Reagan 1980?”
I voted for Reagan 1980 absentee ballot - I was out of the country at the time. I also remember 20 years earlier when I voted in my first presidential election...1st of three times I voted for Nixon. In 1960 I was in the military.
I have tabulated the data here in an Excel spreadsheet, did some other things to it, and plan to use it Election night to check results against this projection. Could be interesting.
Here in Ohio where I am, I sense the winds are blowing a tide that is favorable to Romney. If this is correct, it could be over quickly...News at 11...
If the rest of this map is close to what actually happens, Ohio won’t matter and there will be no ‘hanging chads’. to challenge.
DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that this prognostication is correct, but I see some encouragement in all this. Note to all...achieving these kinds of numbers requires that we ALL get out there and vote, and that we encourage as many right minded folks that we know to do the same.
Ohio elected Kasic and a ton of other conservatives....that is a sea change
You don’t think 94 was a sea change
It stopped Clinton’s domestic programs in their tracks
I think 1980 was a sea change
1994 could have been but there was no follow on PLUS between Dole and the dem smear campaign on Ken Starr....it’s only about sex...the economy was still good and there was no driving desire to swap presidents except by conservatives. That may be a swell but not a change
|State||Clinton 1996||Dole 1996||Gore 2000||Bush 2000||Kerry 2004||Bush 2004||Obama 2008||McCain 2008||State||Projected Obama||Projected Romney||Projected pop Obama||Projected pop Romney|
|District of Columbia||85.00||9.00||85.00||9.00||89.20||9.30||92.90||6.50||District of Columbia||92.38||6.42||218465||15182|
|New Hampshire||49.00||39.00||47.00||48.00||50.40||49.00||54.30||44.80||New Hampshire||45.53||53.17||335376||391653|
|New Jersey||54.00||36.00||56.00||40.00||53.00||46.20||56.80||42.10||New Jersey||50.43||49.05||1922429||1869822|
|New Mexico||49.00||42.00||48.00||48.00||49.00||49.80||56.70||42.00||New Mexico||46.03||53.42||390653||453371|
|New York||59.00||31.00||60.00||35.00||58.40||40.10||62.20||36.70||New York||55.25||43.67||4025920||3182116|
|North Carolina||44.00||49.00||43.00||56.00||43.60||56.10||49.90||49.50||North Carolina||40.48||60.62||1799232||2694403|
|North Dakota||40.00||47.00||33.00||61.00||35.50||62.90||44.70||53.30||North Dakota||33.65||64.02||109402||208140|
|Rhode Island||60.00||27.00||61.00||32.00||59.40||38.70||63.10||35.30||Rhode Island||56.23||41.22||258912||189798|
|South Carolina||44.00||50.00||41.00||57.00||41.00||58.10||44.90||53.80||South Carolina||38.08||62.70||747252||1230375|
|South Dakota||43.00||46.00||38.00||60.00||38.40||59.90||44.70||53.20||South Dakota||36.38||62.75||142828||246357|
|West Virginia||51.00||37.00||46.00||52.00||43.20||56.10||42.60||55.70||West Virginia||41.05||58.17||299871||424933|
Reagan except for a couple years when the GOP had the senate had nothing but an antagonistic democrat congress
1994 till 2006 the GOP held the congress and from 2000-2006 had a GOP congress and president
Thanks justiceseeker93 and cripplecreek.
MN has no voter ID and same-day registration. Anyone can vote if somebody ‘vouches’ for them. Election oversite will be by the Soros SOS project enlistee Mark Ritchie (the former head of ACORN in MN). This is the same SOS that oversaw the endless recounts until Al Franken won.
Yes, but only after that phony, fraudulent multiple recount conducted under the auspices of the 'Rat Secretary of State. But Coleman was the incumbent; he had been elected to the US Senate six years before that.
And yes, there was at least one other GOP US Senator in the 1980s: Rudy Boschwitz.
I understand that occasionally they go for ‘Pub candidates at the state level. I’m just saying that the recent electoral history of MN does not indicate a lot of support for ‘Pub presidential candidates, and that makes a win by R&R a long shot. That does not mean that they shouldn’t try or that people inclined to vote for them should not do so, because in politics those are the only things we can do.
Thanks for the ping and for sharing your insights, dear justiceseeker93!
1. Seniors. George was governor from 63-69. People in their 50's or older remember George. People born in 1945 and earlier had the chance to vote for George. That's important, because there's a large senior population here, and seniors here are more democrat than elsewhere because of unions.
2. Oakland County. That's Mitt's old stomping ground. The family is known there.
Will that make a difference? Maybe.