AND THE CONSERVATIVE RESPONSE:
Posted on 08/27/2014 7:38:23 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans have reason to hope for a wave election in 2014, with Barack Obama’s approval ratings sinking to a six-year floor and Democrats defending several red-state Senate seats. That wave hasn’t washed ashore in Kansas, which one would normally expect to be reliably Republican in the current environment. Republicans even have incumbents running for both the gubernatorial and Senate seats, which should make it an easy hold. According to a new Survey USA poll, though, it looks like both Republican incumbents are in trouble:
Despite primary wins 3 weeks ago for both top-ticket incumbent Kansas Republicans – Governor Sam Brownback and U.S. Senator Pat Roberts – and despite Kansas being a reliably Red State, both Brownback and Roberts face tough re-election fights for the 11/04/14 general election, according to the latest exclusive KSN-TV poll, conducted by SurveyUSA.
In the contest for Governor, the Republican ticket of Brownback and Jeff Colyer continue to trail the Democratic ticket of Paul Davis and Jill Docking, consistent with 2 previous KSN polls conducted before the 08/05/14 primary. Today, it’s Davis 48%, Brownback 40%. Brownback holds 70% of the Republican base, compared to Davis, who holds 91% of the Democratic base. Independents break 4:3 Democratic, a troubling sign in a state such as Kansas, where Republicans often count on right-leaning independents to cushion their victory margins. More troubling, moderates break 7:2 against the incumbent, an unusually large margin in any state, in any contested race. Democrat Davis leads in all 3 regions of the state: by 10 points in greater Wichita, by 8 points in greater Kansas City KS, and by 4 points in Greater Topeka. Among men, where Red State Republican incumbents often lead by 10, 15 or 20 points, Brownback trails by 1. Brownback trails in every age group. SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, on 07/22/14, also showed Davis 8 atop Brownback. A 06/23/14 KSN poll showed Davis 6 atop Brownback.
Voters split on which issue is most important in the Governor’s contest: those who say “tax rates” are most important break by 26 points for Brownback. Those who say “education” is most important break by 43 points for Davis.
This doesn’t look like an outlier, either. The RCP poll average for this summer has Brownback down by almost 3 points, within the MOE, but that’s before the Survey USA poll gets added to the mix. Three of the four polls in the current average have Davis up by five or more points; the only reason that the RCP average is as close as it is comes from an outlier CBS/NYT/YouGov poll that put Brownback up 12, 52/40. Davis wins every age demo, every income demo, and has a ten-point lead among independents. An incumbent stuck at 40% in a three-way race is only a little bit less disastrous than being at 40% in a two-way race.
It’s only looking better in the Senate race because no one gets to 40% in a four-way race:
In the contest for United States Senator, Independent Greg Orman continues to make life difficult for both 3-term Republican Roberts and his Democratic challenger. Today, it’s Roberts 37%, Democrat Chad Taylor 32%, Orman at 20%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 4%. These results are largely consistent with SurveyUSA’s most recent KSN poll, conducted before the 08/05/14 primary, which also showed Roberts 5 points atop Taylor. In its 3 looks at the 11/04/14 general election, SurveyUSA had Orman at 7% on 06/14/14, at 14% on 07/22/14, and at 20% today. Orman siphons votes across the board. He gets 20% of conservatives, 24% of moderates and 17% of liberals. Roberts holds just 62% of the Republican base. Taylor holds 74% of the Democratic base. 38% of independents, a plurality, vote for Orman, who, among Independents beats both Roberts and Taylor. Some comfort for Roberts: he leads in all 3 regions of the state, though he has less than 40% support in every Kansas corner. Roberts breaks 40% among those with a high-school education, but fails to break 40% among the more educated. Roberts fails to break 40% among any income group.
The independent vote is handicapping Roberts in a big way. It’s difficult to see how Milton Wolf would have done appreciably worse in this case, and he might have held the Republican base together better. Roberts does lead the RCP average by eight points, and was up 43/39 in the PPP poll taken at mid-month, but that’s not a big advantage this far from the election for an incumbent. Bear in mind that the D/R/I in this poll is 32/46/18, so even with a 14-point advantage in the sample, neither Republican does particularly well.
The GOP may have a big night at the polls, but Kansas may turn into an unpleasant surprise — and it might cost them a Senate seat to Democrats they can’t afford to lose, if Orman continues to drag away Republicans from Roberts.
My message is "If you want to be a liberal, become a Democrat, like Charlie Crist did."
My message is that I am coming to get you before the election. I will hollow out your support locally before you even start to run your lying ads.
The dems get their agenda passed even with a liberal republican majority. McConnell has already proved that.
I don’t want the liberal republicans to have control of the senate, that would just give them cover to enact the liberal agenda McConnell and Cornyn have proven they support.
/johnny
You are correct, changes at the local level will have two effects:
1) Left leaning party leadership will be replaced by conservatives who will see to it that state and national level office nominees are conservatives.
2) Those politics who bend which ever way the wind blows will suddenly discovers their conservative principles.
Either way, the party moves right. The Democrat Party will never move right.
Not only that we are in touch with other districts and will move from the local level up the chain till we take the state back from the rino’s. It will be a long hard fight but it must be done.
We have the people and they have the money. I feel we will eventually win because no one believes the ads anymore put out by the current incumbents. Everyone tends to trust their friends. It is just a matter of time before they lose is the way I see it. As long as we put in the time and efforts it is ours for the taking.
I support Brownback and I am certain he will win. Otherwise, he get a Obamaite at the helm who will do everything to undo the state. Up to you Kansas. I am voting Brownback. He is a good guy in my book. That HotAir is repeating leftist lies is proof the site is not that great. Only leftist sources have been claiming Brownback will lose if you Google him. As Rush said today, the left is burying everything and anything that makes republicans look good in mid-terms.
KSN, KCTV, Topeka Capitol Journal, Kansas City Star, Wichita Eagle, and so on are all liberal sources. They are committed to prove that Brownback will lose and that Kansas will go left-wing. There is much liberal dislike in Kansas for Brownback for some tax cuts and some of his polices. All the leftist cities have been blabbing junk about him.
I’m voting for the independent candidate for senate. I don’t dislike Roberts, but I was for Wolf. It is my protest vote for Mississippi and for the GOP establishment being too wacky and not supporting Ted Cruz’s attempt to repeal Obamacare in September and October 2013.
I get 3-4 emails A DAY from GOPe groups saying basically: this can’t be right you haven’t donated to us etc. And how much they need my help to keep from losing previously safe seats etc.
They should have listened when they called the last two election cycles and I/we told them our money was going to TP and directly to candidates but not to the pub party.
The only comeback they seemed to have was but at least we can hold the line until things get better. Told them that they weren’t even doing that anymore. And no I was not making even a token $10 donation to the RNC etc.
Despite many of us telling them for years - instead of taking us seriously, this year they double down and pull a Thad Cochran, trash Cruz every time they can etc. . You would think they wouldn’t want to offend us since we were already so p!ssed but apparently that wasn’t important.
You gotta wonder if their campaign managers etc. are really dim plants.
If only blacks could finally be fed up with the Plantation Overseers in their party too.
I agree with your view. Kansas is a moderately conservative state. My former state of residence, Idaho, is a conservative state.
What makes for unpredictability here in Kansas is the uneasy truce between the economic conservatives and the social conservatives. A lot of economic conservatives are embarrassed by their social conservative colleagues and will jump ship to support a Democrat whose economic views are not too wacky because of the social issues. I think that backlash against social conservatism is what is hurting Brownback right now. Several economic conservatives that I know applaud some of Brownback's actions but are still very cool toward him because of his linkage to the social conservative wing of the party. I think that most of them are looking for any reason that they can find to vote against him. I think Brownback is facing a serious challenge this election.
IMO Roberts is still suffering from the residency issue which he handled poorly. While I believe that Roberts could be improved upon, I wasn't convinced that Milton Wolfe was the one to do it. He struck me as too much of an opportunist and as someone who was too much of a blank slate. I wasn't going to vote against Roberts unless it was for a clear improvement. IMO, Roberts should win the general election.
Budget deficits and education spending.
Texas has no state income tax at all and the state is thriving.
Message to ALL KANSANS:
If you want to see what happens to a state when you put the Dems in charge of everything, please come visit my state of CA and do not limit your visit to just Disneyland, Universal, or SeaWorld.
I’m tired of all of this crap about RINOs. Brownback is a fine governor and it would be insane to put the Dems in charge there.
I tend to think that is mostly a fantasy propagated by people here that are angry that certain primary candidates lost, some loses, like Chris McDaniel, were most unfortunate. With others, like Joe Miller, Milton Wolf, Matt Bevin, we should thank our lucky stars those men weren't nominated, cause they'd be almost sure losers in November.
Most analysts have been downgrading rat chances to keep the Senate. Those mostly Republican states with competitive Senate races are gonna see high enough turnout to to demote Reid to Minoirty Leader, where he belongs.
As for what's wrong with Kansas, In addition to strong anti-Obama sentiment nationwide, there is also a good deal of nonpartisan anti-incumbent sentiment this election, in a state like Kansas were the GOP is incumbent, well there you go.
Brownback is unpopular for some reason and is effecting the whole ticket. And that idiot Wolf smeared the hell out a good Senator in Roberts, playing right into democrat hands, giving them their attack lines.
I feel strongly that Roberts will win, Brownback could go down though, I hope not. In any case Roberts having a close race says nothing about Republican Senate prospects in other states, it's simply an anomaly.
Thanks for your strong analysis of the KS political picture.
Remember those making the calls are low-paid help who don’t even know the candidates they are peddling.
Well, if I were a KS voter, I would go with Roberts. In TX, though I am sitting out Cornyn and would also sit out Graham in SC, Cochran in MS, and Lamar! in TN. These are all worse than Roberts.
Didn't Alf Landon used to ask a question like that, don't remember seeing the exact words. I think what's wrong with KS is similar to that of other states, just a desire for more federal gravy and more abortions.
Why KS hasn’t had a Democrat senator since the 1930s, it has elected many Democrat governors over the years.
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