Posted on 10/16/2015 7:29:38 AM PDT by ghost of stonewall jackson
As a spokesman for the no compromise, anti-establishment wing of his party, Cruz would be the ideal presidential nominee for conservatives tired of Republican leaders. He could ask a like-minded governor, possibly Louisianas Bobby Jindal, to join his ticket, giving voters the clear choice that conservatives claim they never have.
But could Cruz win? I dont think so. He might well carry all or most of the 22 states that McCain carried in 2008, and if the Democratic nominee is damaged badly enough and Barack Obamas standing in national polls low enough, I suppose it might be possible that he could win.
But it is far more likely that Cruz would underperform among swing voters and suffer additional Republican defections. His nomination would enable Democrats to make the election a referendum on him and the tea party, and it isnt difficult to imagine 2016 becoming a modern day version of 1964, when Republicans suffered a humiliating defeat.
A Cruz nomination would virtually guarantee Democratic control of the Senate after Novembers elections. GOP senators in states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and, of course, Illinois would have little chance of being re-elected, and the partys prospects in a handful of other Senate races, (e.g., Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and even Arizona) would suddenly become more worrisome.
Given the relatively low number of truly competitive House districts, the GOP might well be able to retain control of the House, but even that is not certain.
So why should the GOP nominate Cruz if it entails so much risk? Because a clear and convincing defeat is the only thing in the foreseeable future that has any chance of convincing Freedom Caucus types in the Republican Party that their strategy is flawed. (Alas, even a crushing defeat wouldnt convince everyone.)
(Excerpt) Read more at rothenberggonzales.com ...
Number 2. Screw the GOPe. Why would we WE want to desert Trump, the winner we already have, even for Cruz, who will be a better fit for from 4 to 8 years, somewhere else? And even if we did that, why would we saddle him with Jindal?
And Number 1. We already have it halfway in the bag with Trump. What insanity would cause us to toss THAT aside?
No thanks. We don’t need any free advice from the democRATS. Judging by the surnames of the writers, that’s probably where THEY come from; if not from the RINOs.
Don’t blame me, I’m not the one pimping a liberal like Trump.
If you’re that hot for a liberal, you’re going to get one no matter what I do.
which obama 2012 states does cruz turn red?
But a good test of whether OH would go for Cruz is is poll number in OH. (Quinnipiac) He is at a pretty respectable 11%, but 6% say they would definitely not vote for him. But Q is really high: PPP has Cruz at 5 in OH, down one from his previous 6.
The establishment always offers us their expert knowledge that a conservative can’t win for President.
But since RINOs McCain and Romney couldn’t win either, do we have to draw the conclusion that no Republican will ever be elected President again?
I don’t think so.
Cruz would win and win handily.
I refuse to take part in any polls outside of the ones here at FR (unless its to mess with a democrat poll)
As far as electability is concerned, the people who pimp that crap don’t have a great track record these days.
Trump would be President Clinton II. He would govern purely by polls just as Trump’s whole platform and campaign have been set up and managed by polls. He’s obsessed with polls and will do anything to keep his numbers up. Trump will move to the “center” in the general election so fast your head will spin.
Trump is a populist conservative. Yes, he’s not a pure idealogical conservative like Cruz. But a populist conservative AND a proven leader is what the country is looking for after 8 dreadful years of Obama.
2016 will be another 1980 for the GOP but only if Trump is the nominee.
Too funny to see some people’s thinking:
“I’m not voting for Romney, he is not conservative enough”.
“I’m not voting for Cruz, he is too conservative.”
When Cruz ran for senate in Texas we heard all of these same arguments. Yet he surprised everyone and won, beating RINO Dewhurst in the GOP runoff and whipping the dem in the general.
Texas yes. But Texas is not the entire country.
If we put up another GOPe and they win what have we won? Nothing. If we are circling the drain and need a flush I want the dims in charge when the flush happens so it is obvious who the culprit is.
If a GOPe wins we really do not win. I am tired of the uni-party.
That southeast Texas area is not as conservative as the rest of Texas.
I’m sure this genius also told us that the Dems would hold the Senate in 2014 because of Tea party, yada yada yada, government shutdown, blah blah blah.
You can expect this from Rothenberg. What’s discouraging is the number of posts on this forum that agree.
Yeah we need a moderate to win swing states lie OH, PA etc. worked well in ‘08 and ‘12
Bush had 62,040,610 votes in 2004. Romney had a bit more than McCain, but still only 60,933,500. So the difference between 2004 and 2012 is either explained by people staying home, switching to Obama, going to jail or dying.
Still, that difference would not have been enough to make McCain or Romney beat Obama. Obama’s victories have been based not on Republicans staying home, but on Barry accumulating 5 to 9 million voters who seem to have never voted before.
If the Democrats hold on to at least Obama’s 2012 number, there is no way for Republicans to win without doing the same, finding voters who probably have never voted before. If they’re out there, then they have been staying home for a long time.
The only other possible strategy is to make the Democrat voters stay home or switch parties.
There was some bad analysis early on after the 2012 election that claimed Romney got less votes than McCain. But it eventually proved false and only looked that way at the time because all of the vote counts hadn’t officially come in yet and the total recorded counts were a lot lower.
He would not win. Most Americans have had their brains palinized against him. He will win after serving as veep and everything that comes out of his mouth is right on for four years.
Cruz needs Rubio as VP to pick-up Florida support.
It will still be Cruz policy that carries the day, so get off of the “but Marco’s a .....”
The objective is to broaden national support and Electoral votes....AND WIN!
No matter who is the nominee, that red herring can always be waved.
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