Posted on 12/13/2015 11:07:32 AM PST by NRx
The Iowa caucuses are seven weeks away. Donald Trump is still the Republican front-runner. Sen. Marco Rubio is, for now, the establishment’s best (only?) hope. And Sen. Ted Cruz is the guy who looks best positioned to win.
Yes, you heard that right.
Cruz (R-Tex.), as of today, has the most direct route to the Republican presidential nomination — assuming that the past history of GOP nomination fights works as a broad predictor of where the 2016 race is headed.
Let me elaborate.
1. Cruz is positioned as the most conservative candidate in the race. Although Trump gets all the attention for his over-the-top statements, Cruz has staked out a position on the far right on virtually every major hot-button issue, including immigration, Obamacare, national security and the fight against the Islamic State militant group. And, tonally, Cruz comes across as aggressively and unapologetically conservative — a less controversial and more electable version of real estate magnate Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
He has been on the scenes a long time now. he is being media boosted. That said he is going to do well in Iowa with the evangelical vote. What helps him in Iowa...well just a fact.
More wishful thinking. Linke the too convenient poll for Cruz saying he jumped 20 points. No more likely than Fiorina before. Fits a rivalry meme of media, which is okay.
Thanks for the response.
Caww, you see nothing unusual at all with the Washington Post saying a Conservative is the one to beat.
That’s your story right? LOL
Will “being the most conservative” help Cruz win? Has it helped him so far? No.
No...I just don’t base my vote on media hype no matter what they’re pushing or who.....
It’s a Primary election and media has bias foremost to maintain their ratings and keeping people engaged....either by the story or creating one.
It’s “Check Mate”, game over. The Democrats and GOPe can’t beat Cruz or Trump no matter what they do using the same old lies and methodology.
They’ve destroyed their credibility with the grassroots. They’ve lied too long and they can no longer ignore the real facts and truth. They are now faced with moving it up to the next level or losing. They are going to have to do something unimaginable and revolutionary to keep the Whitehouse.
And we’ll be waiting in anticipation.
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>> “The hippie, communist Democrats at the WaPO think Hitlery can beat Cruz.” <<
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Probably not. Their own polls have already told them that she dare not enter any debate with Cruz.
Even most Democrats hold belief that Cruz would destroy her in a debate.
LOL
Not in a debate. Cruz will crucify her.
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You’re Chelsea Clinton, aren’t you!
.
While this is good news and I agree with many of his points, the author makes a few assumptions that are not at all assured in this year’s race.
“assuming that the past history of GOP nomination fights works as a broad predictor of where the 2016 race is headed.”
1. Trump doesn’t need to build on a an early state victory in order to secure funding. And let’s be clear, that is why Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are so important: if your candidate can’t finish first or second in any of those 3, you aren’t going to donate. Funding dries up and your campaign is dead or on tenuous life support by Super Tuesday. Trump is self funding. He could come in third in all three early states (which looks unlikely) and still coast all the way to June.
2. Everything depends on turnout—as it does every year, but even more so this year. The people who show up at rallies and vote in on-line polls aren’t always the best primary voters. I keep reminding folks that Howard Dean is a great example of this. It remains to be seen if Trump’s YUGE presence in the polls will translate to primary voters, especially caucus voters.
3. In the end this is going to come down to math. Which states can a candidate win that are winner-take-all and which states that are proportional allocation of delegates can he win by the biggest margin?
So you admit it. You are paid.
I really think you are wrong about this. Whoever the male nominee is will be Lazio’d. Indeed, Senator Cruz is far more likely to get Lazio’d, because he, like Mr. Lazio is a perfect gentleman. There will be some innocent gesture or remark they can use to perform the Lazio.
For that matter, if the Republican candidate should be a woman, they would still find a way to Lazio her, especially if she is younger or taller than Hillary. She too would be so threatening to Hillary, this fragile little shrinking violet!
It is a given, this will happen. I suspect that Mr. Loudmouth himself, the Don Rickles of this political cycle, Donald Trump, will handle this nonsense best with his bombastic no-nonsense schoolyard ridicule that works so effectively against political correctness. I fear that Senator Cruz, a well brought up gentleman will be flummoxed enough by this tack to lose his momentum; most men would be.
On the other hand, Donald Trump will probably just double-up and say she is, in essence, an idiotic crazy old post-menopausal drunken senile harpy scared of her own shadow, and it takes a man to do this job. The outrage will be so great against his sexism the Lazio will be forgotten. And then he will go on to blaspheme some other sacred cow of the left, and that will be forgotten. Mr. Trump spins the media like a top.
I honestly do not think anyone other than Donald Trump can weather the perfect storm coming his way with the Hillary campaign.
Americans love them some trained, over and under dancing Washington politicians. They get confused when somebody like Trump hits them with the truth and nothing but. We’ve got one chance to pull ourselves out of the pit that the Democrats have put us into and the Republicans are dying to shoot it down.
You just don’t stroll into Washington with your own money and lay down. It just isn’t done! There’s no money and perks in that for lobbyists and special interests! It’s just not the American way! At least not now.
Of course Cruz will take the bait just like Carson, who was even comfortable enough with their assurances that he stopped campaigning and took to the road on a book tour. Look where he is now.
I really believe that Americans, deep down, want to be lulled into Socialism by the smarmy politicians that are going to benefit from it.
The,media has only to murmer some cherry picked, twisted, cut up version of anything and everyone laps it up as if there was such a thing as responsible journalism in this country anymore.
There’s only one candidate that isn’t a bought and paid for trained seal in this race. Donors equal owners but Trump is his own man.
I agree, and this poll from just a few days ago, six to be exact, has me thinking that poll from yesterdays was gamed. Here’s the breakdown of those numbers again. Even the poll data doesn’t back the polling sample conclusion for president.
CNN Poll 12/07/2015
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-still-leads-in-iowa-poll-suggests/
Numbers from yesterday’s poll
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3371959/posts?page=24#24
well at least you can be amused......
On the other hand, I, a center/right conservative woman, support Trump, as so most of my center/right, very practical, female friends, and further more, those friends who support other candidates, do not hate Trump (even though they may not like him much) but in fact are impressed by how effective he has been in this fight against political correctness and for the future of our country, and would definitely vote for him against Hillary in a heart beat.
But we are not a very emotional bunch, though, my center/right conservative friends and I, where our country is concerned. We think things through. (However, we reserve the right to be quite emotional about family, friends, and matters of the heart.)
Maybe your center/right conservative women are not in fact conservative at all, if their politics are based on their feelings instead of their brains, and thus vote for whatever candidate they find the most personally appealing.
REAL center/right conservative women who are concerned for the future of our country are not going to support and vote for candidates based on personal likes or dislikes.
I reject your argument.
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