Posted on 12/15/2015 9:51:08 AM PST by Red Steel
[Full title] Trump Edges Cruz in Iowa; His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good; Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders In State
PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the top of the heap with 28% and 25% respectively. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10% are also in double digits with Jeb Bush at 7% the only other candidate who clears even 3%. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee all hit that level with John Kasich and Rand Paul each getting 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum each getting 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki both having literally no support.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have all seen varying increases in their support in the six weeks since we last polled Iowa. Cruz obviously has the most momentum, picking up 11 points from his 14% standing in early November. Trump has gained 6 points, Rubio 4 points, and Bush 2 points.
As we’ve been finding across the country for the last month Carson has seen the most serious downward arc in his support, dropping 11 points from his previous 21% standing. Huckabee’s dropped 3 points and Fiorina by 2 points as well.
There are a lot of divisions between where Cruz and Trump’s support is coming from. Among voters whose biggest concern is having a candidate who’s conservative on the issues Cruz leads with 33% to 26% for Trump and 15% for Carson. But with voters whose biggest concern is being able to beat a Democrat in the general election, Trump wins out with 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz leads Trump 31/30 with men, but Trump more than makes up for that with a 26/17 lead among women. Cruz has a strong advantage with ‘very conservative’ voters at 37% to 25% for Trump and 14% for Carson but Trump leads based on his strength with moderates, with whom gets 42% to 14% each for Rubio and Bush.
It’s ironic that Trump leads with moderates, because the views of his supporters wouldn’t be considered moderate by most standards:
-78% support Trump’s call to bans Muslims from entering the United States, to only 13% who oppose it. Overall 54% of Republicans support him on that to 28% who are opposed. Supporters of Cruz (62/20) and Carson (54/25) also favor a Muslim ban while backers of Rubio (28/48) and Bush (28/49) are opposed.
-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t. Supporters of Carson (44/10) and Cruz (45/26) agree with Trump’s that it happened while those of Rubio (24/47) and Bush (12/62) say it didn’t.
-59% of Trump voters support a national database of Muslims, to 18% who are opposed. Republicans as a whole are evenly divided on that issue, 40/40. Carson supporters (42/38) join with Trump’s in wanting a Muslim database but those of Cruz (38/42), Rubio (32/48), and Bush (19/62) are all against it.
-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though. Supporters of all the other major GOP candidates are opposed to shutting down mosques- it’s 32/48 with Carson backers, 25/44 with those of Cruz, 9/66 with Rubio voters, and 9/69 with Bush’s.
-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.
Trump’s positions aren’t hurting him for now but if he ever does falter Cruz is very well positioned to benefit. Besides his overall second place position Cruz is the most broadly popular of the candidates in Iowa, with a 68/20 favorability rating. He’s also the most frequent second choice of Iowa voters at 19% to 12% each for Carson and Rubio, and 11% for Trump. When you combine first and second choices Cruz leads with 44% to 39% for Trump, 26% for Rubio, and 22% for Carson. Cruz is specifically by far and away the second choice of Trump voters at 36% to 14% for Carson with no one else hitting double digits. Quick notes on some other hopefuls:
-Bush has the highest negatives of any of the candidates with 47% seeing him unfavorably to only 35% who have a positive view. He continues to particularly have a credibility issue on the right- with ‘very conservative’ voters his favorability is 24/61 and just 2% of voters within that group favor him for the nomination.
-What we’re continuing to find with Rubio right now is that he’s sort of in a holding pattern. When we polled Iowa last month he was in 4th place with a 60/20 favorability rating. Now thanks to the collapse of Carson he’s in 3rd place with a nearly identical 59/22 favorability. He’s not getting much momentum but he’s at least not falling apart either.
-Carson’s not just losing out on people saying he’s their first choice- he’s had a general decline in his image with GOP voters. Last month he had a +61 (74/13) favorability, that’s now dropped to +40 at 63/23. His combined first and second choice support has dropped from 40% down to 22%.
-John Kasich’s just really not making an impact. A plurality of GOP voters- 41%- don’t even have an opinion about him one way or the other. Among voters who do have one it’s quite negative with only 22% seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative view.
-Mike Huckabee on the other hand is very popular with the Republican base. 64% see him favorably to just 21% with a negative view, making him the most broadly liked hopeful other than Cruz. That goodwill just isn’t translating into support for the nomination for him though.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.
Full results here
I think MD quit polling! If I recall the news article, they missed a race badly-—and I think this was before the KY governor’s race. Anyway, it would be back in July or so, I think they said they would quit state by state polling for a while.
>> Even graduate schools, today, don't contain the factual info that grammar school kids got in the 1950s!
Seems half of Generation XBox has some sort of gradurate decree.
Their craftsmanship, such that it is, demonstrates succinctly that Buzzwords and BS are better for hiding behind than building anything useful upon.
Yes, I know, which is INSANE and they STILL don’t know how to tie their own shoes and many of the men don’t know how to use a razor.
I don’t think the polls are all wrong. I’m not the one making that mistake. I think the polls are right. For right now. Iowa looks about tied, maybe a small edge to Sen. Cruz. The rest of the nation is caught up in a trump tsunami. Will it last? I don’t know.
If you look carefully at my posting history, you’ll see that I think at this moment in time, trump is likely to win the nomination, however unpalatable that may be to actual conservatives. But I’m not stupid enough to predict what will happen 50 days, 150 days, or 10 and a half months from now. trump may win it all. Sen. Cruz may win it all. Hitlery may win it all. Who knows? Bernie or Marco or (God forbid) Jeb might come back from the dead and surprise us all! After all, McCain was single digits at this point four years ago.
The point is, no one knows. We can say what may be. We can show the path of how something MIGHT happen. But we’re all guessing. Anyone who says, “This will happen, or That will happen” is a fool.
What about the Muslims here who are U.S. citizens and how would you identify Muslims coming in?
Nothing's perfect, but it wouldn't be hard to do a decent job.
Perfect is what Trump is promising. A complete and total end to Muslims entering the country. Your proposals won't come close to doing that.
“Perfect is what Trump is promising.”
Balderdash. Only a child would think that.
I think what people don’t understand is that Trump’s policy of banning Muslim immigration, although it sounds good, is nothing more than stupid antics for the sake of making reality tv drama in this election.
First of all, muslims are not going to admit to being muslim anymore than they admit to being terrorists if a ban is in place so, in practice, this ban is a waste of time. Secondly, when one of these muslims gets into the U.S. after claiming they are Christian, then liberals will be calling to ban all Christians too because after all, the muslim lied and entered the country as a Christian. The libs will claim what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Trump’s policy sets a dangerous precedent.
I prefer Cruz’s approach of banning immigration from terrorist supporting countries (i.e. most are muslim) because this can actually be done since country of origin is on a passport/visa. Also, this can’t be used against Christians later.
For those that discount this argument...think back. Liberals wanted to ban the rebel flag because some nutcase stood in front of it prior to a mass shooting, but you didn’t see that same outrage for banning the isis flag when a muslim stood in front of it prior to doing a mass shooting. Liberals will use Trump’s poorly thought out policy against us later, while fighting against it now.
Also, for those that claim Carter did the same thing Trump is proposing then you’re wrong. Carter banned Iranian immigration, based on country of origin, not religion. That is what Cruz is proposing.
From Trumps own website: "Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."
Total and complete. A 100% end of Muslims entering the country. The balderdash you speak of isn't that he didn't say it but believing it was actually possible.
“Frankly as compared to a possible defeat at the hands of the Imperial Japan dictatorship, I can’t see the internment as that big a deal.
But asking Trump supporters about it to make them look “bad†is pure BS.”
Ditto!
Stealing their property was wrong, period.
But to put people in a place where they cannot disrupt our national security in a time of war is just fine. People forget the Japanese were the terrorists of their day - suicide bombing, the atrocities they committed in China and the Philippines were similar to the ISIS actions.
But primarily, they were interred to stop them from signaling Japanese naval and air forces. Japan attacked us unprovoked and our LEADERS were protecting the American people. Wish we had a leader that put us first now.
I am disagreeing with Trump supporters who think Japanese internment was a “ good thing “ . That’s all my man .
Apples and oranges . Those people who were in internment camps were American citizens .
Under Cruz’s plan, a muslim from Iran that settled in France could come here. After hearing about all the French Muslims stockpiling guns in their mosques, is that really a good idea?
This is just one example of why using nationality is a problem. Their country if original isn’t the problem, it is their religion.
Australia makes people who want to move there prove they have needed skills, then vets to make sure the information is accurate. We can do the same with regard to religion, which mosque they attend (some are known as terrorist centers), check social media, and data from their country if origin.
I think that by 100%total and complete, he’d declare victory at 90%. To accomplish anywhere near that we would have to use folks highly trained in Israeli behavioral methods, and spend an hour or to with every immigrant trying to uncover hidden moslems.
Banning folks from terrorist countries (heavily moslem) like Sen. Cruz had previously proposed, would probably work better.
“muslims are not going to admit to being muslim anymore than they admit to being terrorists if a ban is in place”
That’s the best argument either way I’ve heard so far.
It's stupid. Any one of us or all of us (Americans) might well have supported Japanese internment if we'd been around during that war.
That's how people thought back then. They would probably have killed Baby Hitler if they could have.
“A 100% end of Muslims entering the country. “
You just quoted Trump’s policy that said ‘until...’ and paraphrased it leaving that out.
The until we can figure out how to vet them is what saves American lives. If Muslim countries wants to help us by providing data, it can go quicker.
I do agree that only people that are persecuted or have a skill that we need should be admitted into the U.S.
That being said, we can’t use religion as a litmus test or it will be used against Christians at some point because the precedent will have been set. Plus anyone can lie about their religion so using it as a litmus test would be pointless and would amount to nothing. I agree that the nationality test may not be 100%, but it is better than nothing.
Not to mention, litmus testing based on religion is completely against our Constitution under any circumstances and no true Constitutional conservative would ever support changing that since it could also be used against other religions (and yes, atheism is a religion of its own).
Ok, so a 3 pt lead is edging Cruz if Trump ahead.
However, a 3 pt lead is trouncing Trump if Cruz ahead.
So sick of these people.
Good point.
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