Posted on 12/15/2015 9:51:08 AM PST by Red Steel
[Full title] Trump Edges Cruz in Iowa; His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good; Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders In State
PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the top of the heap with 28% and 25% respectively. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10% are also in double digits with Jeb Bush at 7% the only other candidate who clears even 3%. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee all hit that level with John Kasich and Rand Paul each getting 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum each getting 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki both having literally no support.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have all seen varying increases in their support in the six weeks since we last polled Iowa. Cruz obviously has the most momentum, picking up 11 points from his 14% standing in early November. Trump has gained 6 points, Rubio 4 points, and Bush 2 points.
As we’ve been finding across the country for the last month Carson has seen the most serious downward arc in his support, dropping 11 points from his previous 21% standing. Huckabee’s dropped 3 points and Fiorina by 2 points as well.
There are a lot of divisions between where Cruz and Trump’s support is coming from. Among voters whose biggest concern is having a candidate who’s conservative on the issues Cruz leads with 33% to 26% for Trump and 15% for Carson. But with voters whose biggest concern is being able to beat a Democrat in the general election, Trump wins out with 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz leads Trump 31/30 with men, but Trump more than makes up for that with a 26/17 lead among women. Cruz has a strong advantage with ‘very conservative’ voters at 37% to 25% for Trump and 14% for Carson but Trump leads based on his strength with moderates, with whom gets 42% to 14% each for Rubio and Bush.
It’s ironic that Trump leads with moderates, because the views of his supporters wouldn’t be considered moderate by most standards:
-78% support Trump’s call to bans Muslims from entering the United States, to only 13% who oppose it. Overall 54% of Republicans support him on that to 28% who are opposed. Supporters of Cruz (62/20) and Carson (54/25) also favor a Muslim ban while backers of Rubio (28/48) and Bush (28/49) are opposed.
-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t. Supporters of Carson (44/10) and Cruz (45/26) agree with Trump’s that it happened while those of Rubio (24/47) and Bush (12/62) say it didn’t.
-59% of Trump voters support a national database of Muslims, to 18% who are opposed. Republicans as a whole are evenly divided on that issue, 40/40. Carson supporters (42/38) join with Trump’s in wanting a Muslim database but those of Cruz (38/42), Rubio (32/48), and Bush (19/62) are all against it.
-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though. Supporters of all the other major GOP candidates are opposed to shutting down mosques- it’s 32/48 with Carson backers, 25/44 with those of Cruz, 9/66 with Rubio voters, and 9/69 with Bush’s.
-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.
Trump’s positions aren’t hurting him for now but if he ever does falter Cruz is very well positioned to benefit. Besides his overall second place position Cruz is the most broadly popular of the candidates in Iowa, with a 68/20 favorability rating. He’s also the most frequent second choice of Iowa voters at 19% to 12% each for Carson and Rubio, and 11% for Trump. When you combine first and second choices Cruz leads with 44% to 39% for Trump, 26% for Rubio, and 22% for Carson. Cruz is specifically by far and away the second choice of Trump voters at 36% to 14% for Carson with no one else hitting double digits. Quick notes on some other hopefuls:
-Bush has the highest negatives of any of the candidates with 47% seeing him unfavorably to only 35% who have a positive view. He continues to particularly have a credibility issue on the right- with ‘very conservative’ voters his favorability is 24/61 and just 2% of voters within that group favor him for the nomination.
-What we’re continuing to find with Rubio right now is that he’s sort of in a holding pattern. When we polled Iowa last month he was in 4th place with a 60/20 favorability rating. Now thanks to the collapse of Carson he’s in 3rd place with a nearly identical 59/22 favorability. He’s not getting much momentum but he’s at least not falling apart either.
-Carson’s not just losing out on people saying he’s their first choice- he’s had a general decline in his image with GOP voters. Last month he had a +61 (74/13) favorability, that’s now dropped to +40 at 63/23. His combined first and second choice support has dropped from 40% down to 22%.
-John Kasich’s just really not making an impact. A plurality of GOP voters- 41%- don’t even have an opinion about him one way or the other. Among voters who do have one it’s quite negative with only 22% seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative view.
-Mike Huckabee on the other hand is very popular with the Republican base. 64% see him favorably to just 21% with a negative view, making him the most broadly liked hopeful other than Cruz. That goodwill just isn’t translating into support for the nomination for him though.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.
Full results here
Just as much of one as Trump has. I have no idea how to get all the Muslims to Antarctica and he has no idea how to prevent a single Muslim from entering the country. But you have to realize, we're the big idea guys. We can't be bothered with details like whether our ideas are workable or not. That's someone else's problem.
“Perhaps it’s also an age difference amongst posters.”
An interesting thought. Seems likely.
But Cruz has not only NOT even brought it up, but has less than NO “plans” re the Muslim invasion here.
“...he has no idea how to prevent a single Muslim from entering the country.”
Sure he does, and so do we all. It ain’t rocket surgery.
“Are you sure you got your information correct? Not saying you are wrong, I’ve just never knew this.”
You are aware that they left the camps to go to school and work, right?
That's one factor that SHOULD obviously distinguish the USA from, well, the not USA.
Odd how that's not so obvious to Generation XBox. Gee I wonder how that happened?
They were “evacuated” only from areas deemed to be “military zones” on the West Coast. They could, and many did, go elsewhere. And, yes, they were in danger from certain elements of the population. There were separate detention camps for Japanese thought to be disloyal. For the evacuation camps, the Administration’s policy was that anyone could leave if he had a job and could be self-supporting, was wealthy enough to support himself, or had someone who would support him, in each case outside the military zones. The USSC in Ex Parte Endo went further by holding that no loyal Japanese could be held against his desires, period.
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/323/283/case.html
I am not saying that the actions taken by FDR were the best possible, but the left and racial grievance groups have distorted and misused this incident. Reading Michelle Malkin’s book is worthwhile if someone wants to actually understand the full situation in 1941-42. Japanese in other parts of the country were not included in the evacuation.
The further away from WW II the birth date, the less those generations understand those times. And look at how many people didn't even think about 9/11 now, or fear subsequent attacks....until the recent murders in California.
Then how?
Thanks for the correction, and I appreciate greatly you gauging my age down by 40 years.
What a great compliment.
He's been working in the Senate to try and strip funding for Syrian refugees.
They don’t even know about the horrors of the Japanese concentration camps for Brit and Dutch and Chinese women and children; let alone the “COMFORT WOMEN” I bet.
The internment was wrong, but necessary at the time. Pearl Harbor? Seriously? But this is not even apples to oranges. This is apples to a shoe.
Deny, deflect, change the subject and the ever popular....MAKE EXCUSES. LOL
>>His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good
Most people in 1942 thought it was good. But it is not the same as telling people they come here for a while we get our procedures straight.
However, the internment of Progressives sounds like a great idea.
It wasn’t a correction, or an assertion that you were a member of Generation XBox.
Carry on.
Okay, thank you.
Sorry I misunderstood.
Didn’t you make some fairly assured predictions, in the days coming up to the 2012 election, that we would wake up on November 7, 2012 to President-elect Romney?
The battle of Niiahu must be brought up in any discussion of Japanese internment. It’s dishonest to debate it otherwise. Still, I don’t think you can find many instances of a free society systematically punishing people by association of their race. When you consider the kind of person FDR was, it makes sense he would do something like that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.