Posted on 12/25/2015 11:11:56 AM PST by Red Steel
Winter Springs, Fla. - An extended lead for Democrat Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and a virtual tie on the Republican side highlights a recent Gravis Marketing poll from Iowa. The nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla recently conducted a random phone survey of 1,027 registered, likely primary voters in Iowa that was split into two specific demographics. The automated IVR survey which was conducted from December 18th to the 21st, includes 440 Republican Caucus participants, 418 Democratic Caucus participants, and the remainder not planning on participating in the caucus, but is planning to vote in the regular elections.
The poll has a margin of error of +-3% [5% for Republican and Democratic caucuses]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The results following highlight the Republican and Democrat party results from the recent Iowa poll.
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The focus of the Gravis Marketing poll then shifted to asking about the Republican and Democrat Caucus member's choice for their parties nominee for President of the United States. When asked to choose between a pool of 13 potential candidates; including front runners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the Caucus members were split; with both Trump and Cruz receiving 31 percent support from Caucus member. Florida Senator Marco Rubio captured 9 percent of the potential vote, while Dr. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush rounded up the top five with seven and five percent.
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Doug Kaplan, the President of Gravis Marketing offered his analysis of the recent Iowa polling; "The Republican race in Iowa is very close. The questions we must ask is has Ted Cruz peaked too early ...
(Excerpt) Read more at gravismarketing.com ...
121,503 .. January 2012 Republican turnout .......
614,913 .. January 2012 Republican registration
19.76% .. 2012 Republican caucus turnout
119,200 .. January 2008 Republican turnout
576,231 .. January 2008 Republican registration
20.69% .. 2008 Republican caucus turnout rate
How soon they forget that Trump is ahead of Cruz in two other December Iowa polls.
50 days ago, it was Carson 28, Trump 19, Cruz 10. Now Carson is at 7. Iowa is so friggin meaningless.
Iowa, a median state in area and population (we've slipped a couple spots but used to be 25th in both), a purple state that can swing in any direction electing liberals, moderates and conservatives, where candidates have to put in a lot of work to get voters to really know them because it's about the size limit for practical full state retail politics, where only the most motivated voters show up is not a good choice? But New Hampshire, a much smaller state dominated by the Boston media market is suitable for pruning the field? Or South Carolina, so swaggeringly conservative it foists Lindsay Graham on the country is a good choice to start pruning the field? The message out of Iowa the past two cycles was that a more conservative choice was needed; it picked what was perceived as the most conservative choice available each time, which sadly were Huck and Rick. They were conservative... on what they wanted to talk about. The country instead picked the most liberal 'viable' candidates available who flopped in the general. This time we have real conservative options. Maybe the country ought to listen to Iowa for a change.
Iowa only proves who is the most religious or pro-life. Evangelicals will not decide this election.
The trumpsters will surely pimp polls which say opposite to bury good Cruz news.
Merry Christmas!
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Cruz is drawing votes from Trump and Carson.
Thanks for the ping. Gotta love the Cruz supporters on here. A tied race translates into Cruz wins easily. Very encouraged by Trump’s numbers here. He’s showing some real staying power here. He may not win, but he just may and if he loses it will be close.
And Ted Cruz is winning his strong support in Iowa even though, unlike Donald Trump, he specifically stated he was not in favor of ethanol subsidies.
In your posts, you talk about Trump’s “ceiling,” “peak,” and how he’s not picking up new drop-out votes, but Trump has gone up about 10% in the national polls in the past month. What you are saying is the same thing I’ve heard over and over and over again for the past half a year, and yet it’s never happened yet.
What makes you so sure that after six months on top that Trump is going to lose his double-digit lead in the next month or two? Are you so sure, for example, that all of Bush, Kasich, and Cristie’s voters are going to Cruz when they drop out and not Rubio (and the establishment will not allow all the GOPe candidates to drop out, so Rubio is not going anywhere unless Christie or Bush surpass him)? Cruz will get most of Carson’s voters, but is that enough anywhere else besides Iowa? Why too considering Trump’s recent big jump in the polls do you think he will not get any new voters in the future? You say Cruz is taking votes from Trump but Trump has gone up in the polls, even in Iowa. I simply don’t understand why so many Cruzers seem so optimistic. I mean, he’s certainly on the rise, but he has a long way to go still to catch up with Trump on the whole.
Not all of Cruz’s ideas about ethanol is likely ideological since Cruz has big backing from the gas industry just like Rick Perry.
“Cruz wins Iowa easily”
I predict he won’t finish in the top 2.
There are at least 5 outside groups beginning to hit him with negative ads on everything from ethanol to gay marriage.
This is Iowa. 4 yeas ago Newt was ahead but when the outside groups were done with him he was behind Ron Paul.
This is such great news. It is my opinion that Trump followers are FAR more motivated and activated that any other candidate followers. They will attend these cauci and stay all night if need be. Thousand are busing in from many states . Cruz has done a great job and if Trump comes in second that is almost good luck ( remember president Santorum?) . But Trump is a dead synch in New Hampshire and South Carolina. But I think Trump will win in Iowa. He has come from way behind to tie Cruz and the momentum is huge.
“...likely primary voters in Iowa...”
Hmmm shouldn’t that be “caucus attenders”?
IMO, you're more accurate on the last half of this, to my chagrin.
As for the first part, I'm not sold on that by a long shot.
Trump has a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa in 4 days. I’m sure it’s going to be another big crowd and would be caucus goers by Iowa standards.
Beware of the FiveThirtyEight website run by a liberal, wet-nosed, TDS’er named Nate Sliver.
I believe Trump will win Iowa or it may be close with Cruz. I’m not sure about the accuracy of this poll.
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