Most Recent Arizona Poll 3/08 (Trump 37%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 11%)

MBQF Consulting ^ | 03/08/2016 | MBQF Consulting

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

(Phoenix, AZ) — MBQF, a public affairs consulting firm, announced the results of a recent survey concerning the remaining four GOP candidates for president of the United States of America.

The results from the survey show high efficacy primary Republican voters across Arizona represented by likely 2016 turnout models.

In the most recent automated telephonic survey of 751 high efficacy primary republican voters, conducted on March 8, 2016, the survey calculates a 3.57% theoretical margin of error, plus or minus in percentage points, 95% of the time.

AZ GOP Presidential Primary 2016 Already Voted Going to Vote Combined Results Donald Trump 41.4% 33.7% 37.3% Ted Cruz 23.5% 23.1% 23.3% Marco Rubio 16.1% 7.5% 11.6% John Kasich 13% 16.1% 14.6% Unsure/Undecided * 19.6% 10.4% Another/Not Listed 5.9% * 2.8%

Michael Noble, consultant and pollster, issued the following statement, "With early voting already underway in Arizona, Donald Trump leads with both those voters that have already cast ballots as well as among those that are still planning on voting.”

Noble added, “In addition to the ballot test, we also asked both groups whether they believed if the Republican party’s best days were ahead of them or behind them. The survey found that the majority of those supporting Donald Trump and Ted Cruz felt the party’s best days were ahead of them while those supporting Marco Rubio and John Kasich felt the opposite. This finding was consistent between both groups. ”

[Mad Dawgg]

I would've guessed that Cruz would poll much better in Arizona being close to Texas.

Of course that Chicago violence stance probably hurt him more than people realize.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

According to the math on post 8,

If Cruz loses 24 more delegates, he’s unable to reach 1237

Trump has excellent leeway: 285 to lose out of 840 unclaimed delegates.

So now it should be obvious to everyone why this ...

Cruz: I’m fine with contested convention
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3407082/posts

People begin to realize what Cruz has been up to.

[profit_guy]

AZ feels the pain of illegals more than most states. How could they not vote for Trump’s platform? Plus Sheriff Joe endorses Trump.

[cgbg]

Cruz will be crushed in all the upcoming Northeast contests.

If he can’t win Arizona he is toast.

[profit_guy]

Also remember that Cruz and Kasich have each won their home state. There are no more ‘home states’ for them. Trump’s is yet to come, and in many ways most of the northeast will be Trump’s home state(s).

[profit_guy]

“54 are technically unbound in PA.
17 are bound to the state winner.

However they are elected for a candidate. They key is having your slates loyal.”

So are the unbounds in PA different than unbounds elsewhere? ie. they are not bound until the convention?

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks AW!M.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks AW!M.

[visually_augmented]

You also may be forgetting that Arizona borders Mexico?? Plus Joe Arpiao and Trump have been good friends for quite awhile...

[Bird Jenkins]

It’s not that close to Texas, you gotta go through New Mexico first. It’s closer to California.

Arizona republicans have an opinion on illegal immigration, I bet.

[SamAdams76]

Well somebody is going to get nominated at the convention. If Trump has the clear lead in delegates, let’s say 1100 as a worse case scenario, while Cruz has maybe 750 as a best case, then it will still be Trump.

I cannot see the GOPe slipping in a Jebby Bush or Paul Ryan on a second ballot when Trump has that many delegates on the first ballot. Technically it could happen but practically, that scenario would cause chaos.

Realistically some deals get made and Trump wins on the second ballot.

[Nextrush]

Ted has the endorsement of Senator Mike Lee in Utah ahead of their caucus next Tuesday.

If Mitt and the GOPe of Utah would give up on Kasich and get behind Ted, Cruz might clear the 50 percent mark needed to make Utah winner take all.

Mitt campaigned with Kasich on Monday so I’m not optimistic on a change of heart from Romney.

Otherwise, next Tuesday will be great for Trump with all 58 AZ delegates and a split of Utah’s 40.

[Future Useless Eater]

Thanks BlueNgold.
OK, let me see if I understand...

For a state like PA, each candidate submits THEIR OWN SLATE of names, lets say 71 names, 
and hopefully the candidate picked 71 names (ie: friends) that are FIERCELY loyal to himself. 

Now in PA, 71 delegates will be "won" and divvied up by various candidates, and the 17 BOUND ones MUST vote for his own candidate
on the first ballot. 
The 54 UNBOUND ones will almost certainly vote for his own candidate too (presuming the candidate succeeded in picking FIERCELY loyal friends)
The UNBOUND and BOUND delegates might even hang with their guy thru several ballots if they are extremely loyal, 

....IS THAT RIGHT?  

If that summary is right, then it probably matters very little about the difference between BOUND and UNBOUND.

If that's true, then I contend there are a remainder of only 946 (BOUND plus UNBOUND) delegates left to be "won". 
(not 1050 as has been mentioned on this thread)

[USS Alaska]

Even so, Trump is just barely above his usual 1/3 of the vote.

And Cruz is just below his usual 26%. Going through life fat, drunk and stupid is no way to live, bigbobber.

[Arm_Bears]

March 8?

Today is March 17—This poll is ancient history.

[Iowa David]

Because the unbound delegates get to vote. You just don’t know how they are going to vote. In that way either Trump or Cruz can win on first ballot.

[spintreebob]

Someone list the actual NAMES of delegates, please. WHO the delegates are is extremely important, not to WHOM they are allegedly pledged.

In IL most but not all delegates to the convention are on the ballot and the vote is for the delegate, not for the candidate. But IL is apparently unusual.

In most states, a State Convention chooses the names of the actual delegates to the convention. The State Convention has delegates chosen by the county conventions or county organizations. The county process is chosen by the precinct process.

So how many Trump, Cruz, Kasich/Rubio supporters are even aware of their precinct process? county process? state process?

For example, Trump was high man in GA. Most GA counties have their County Caucus this Saturday. How many supporters of each candidate will show up where it counts?

Will the delegates allegedly pledged to Trump actually be for Trump? Will the Cruz delegates actually be for Cruz? Why should they be if 90% of the people who actually show up for the real game are for Kasich?

Trump supporters have showed up for the pre-season games. But how much does that mean when the real games are played? this Saturday in GA?

[jjotto]

You understand the problem.

We’re in this disaster because Americans in general refuse to participate in their own self-government beyond spending a few minutes in an anonymous booth a few times a decade.

Emotions get charged up, go to a rally to feel good, then go home to fill out brackets, binge watch TV, and weave conspiracy theories about why non-participatory government is out of control. The result couldn’t be anything except bad.

[combat_boots]

+++++++++++++

[ObamahatesPACoal]

There would be McCain supporters who still would vote for Trump as well based on foreign policy, being a strong person and other factors. Probably more if he hadn’t so ballsy to call McCain out.

The anti-McCain vote is strong especially in a Prez primary. McCain only got 47% in 2008.

They voted for wimp Priebusesque Ducey and for Jan Brewer.