Here's the Real Clear politics count, and my workup based on it.
Here's the one from WikiPedia/Green Papers (dif sites, same tally)
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
Well, the only thing I can think of is how much I’m hearing about Cruz somehow stealing delegates after they’ve already been won by Trump.
I admit I don’t know all the ins and outs of the system, but I gotta say, as an outside, it seems pretty weird to me that someone can win delegates only to have them stolen.
BTTT .....
Trump could have 20,000 delegates and the party GOPe poobah’s aren’t going to give him the nod - they’ll kick him out of the party and the convention - Bush is their man - and Rubio
A factor most of the Cruz supporters seem to forget is Trump can buy any delegates votes he is short if hes close but not over.
Here's the Real Clear politics count, and my workup based on it.
Here's the one from WikiPedia/Green Papers (dif sites, same tally)
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
If they were neck and neck, I say go for it.
They aren’t.
Cruz can’t get there numerically.
He’s out, but is acting as the water boy for the GOPe.
This seems despicable to me.
I’ve analyzed the most likely numerical outcomes and believe that Trump will come up somewhere between 60-80 delegates short of the 1237 needed to avoid a second ballot.
If a second ballot is warranted, I also believe Cruz to have a distinct advantage.
Trump hasn’t bought any delegates. He’s playing the system by the rules. Something that Rafael refuses to do.
All this is assuming Trump will win in California and overwhelm in NY. Don’t bet on either
The caveat is that both can follow the “path to elimination”.
When that happens, it still takes a majority 50%+1 vote in the convention to select a nominee. If Trump has, f’rinstance, 48%, and Cruz has, f’rinstance, 44% on the 1st ballot. It then goes to the second ballot. This is where Trump’s deal making prowess comes into play. And Cruz’s as well.
The second ballot, those delegates are going to jockey around.
Trump’s vitriol is not going to be in his favor.
Your numbers seem OK. However, to me, the issue is what happens in the likelihood that BOTH are eliminated. There seems to be a high probability of this happening.
Cruz will be eliminated, mathematically, soon, just as Kasich is now, but unlike Kasich, Cruz has enough support (money, organization), to hang on in case Trump doesn’t reach the Magic Number, 1237.
At that point we will know how Reagan felt in ‘76, regardless of the results.
Cruz isn’t stealing anything, He’s playing by the established rules, instead of whining about elected delegates.
Point is after spending tens of millions of his own money if hes close but not not there its a logical strategy to prevent a loss of his investment.
These data are incomplete. Does not include uncommitted delegates or delegates released by losers like , Kasich Rubio or SC delegates released from Trump for breaking his pledge to back the nominee.
No, this is not an attack on Trump. My dream scenario is Trump wins in the first ballot, but Cruz wins the VP slot due to large numbers of loyal delegates on the floor.
Having Cruz EARN the VP slot and not be beholden to Trump , is our best chance to check Trump’s overactive ego, unite the team and destroy the Evil hillary edifice that has lived for 50 years.
Trump and Cruz should make rule 40 strong, so Ryan or Kasich can not be nominated.
Time will tell. I’m a lot more apprehensive about what the party leaders might do than I am either of the candidates at this point. Cutesy games will hand the thing to Hillary on a velvet pillow and blaming somebody else won’t help. Eagles up!
Yes Cruz is stealing by using subjective malleable rules that only serve to protect the GOPe and thwart the will of the voters.
The gope has no power, if Trump and Cruz control the rules committee . they can even get rid of ryan as the chair.
At this point, realistically, Cruz has a 0% chance of making it to 1,237 before the convention. Trump has maybe a 10% chance of making it to 1,237 before the convention. 10% is infinitely more (and better) than 0%, but if I were a Trump supporter I wouldn’t hang my hat on it. Bottom line: barring a dramatic shift in the race, neither of them are likely to walk into Cleveland with 1,237.
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