Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/04/07/campaign-ad-new-paul-ryan-video-raises-questions/
wanna bet?
I don’t believe in caucuses. We have studied at least three of them that were a complete fiasco.
None of the voter/attendees were asked for IDs. The voter/attendees were allowed to walk from one room to another and handed paperwork to vote again if they wanted to.
It was a complete mess.
I don’t favor open primaries, but anything is better than allowing the GOPe to handpick delegates and then vote for whoever the party wants them to.
Cruz has won very caucus I believe. That’s not an open process. It’s a back room deal.
Look we’re all ideologically looking for the same thing supposedly. We want the GOPe defanged, made powerless. We want a new direction, and a nation we can call our own again.
We’re tired of the open borders, and trade until our workers drop mindset. Our nation is being hollowed out. We are on our way to third world status, and that has been just peachy with the GOPe.
Along comes Trump, a successful CEO worth billions, talkes about doing everything we want, and the GOPe comes freaking unglued. They side with anyone that will stop Trump. They will support Hillary over Trump, their words not mine.
So here we are with the best chance to neuter the GOPe we have had, a Congress in our hip pocket, and along comes Ted Cruz who is unable to get 1237 delegates, but has convinced everyone that he can win a floor fight at the Convention.
This is the same Ted Cruz that said he stopped the Gang of 8 Bill, which passed the Senate.
This is the same Ted Cruz who said he didn’t want Iran to have nukes, but voted for Corker.
This is the same Ted Cruz who said he didn’t want TPP, so he wrote an article with Paul Ryan to support TPA, something the TPP couldn’t pass without.
Ted always says he doesn’t want something or does want something, but he winds up doing exactly opposite of what he said he wanted.
Now he says he doesn’t want a floor fight, but he’s sure he can win a floor fiight, so he’s going to force one.
Ted can’t help himself. He’s a bungling fool, and he’s going to wind up short circuiting our ability to finally be rid of the GOPe.
This is it folks. The next president will run up another 10 trillion in debt even at best, and we’ll be over 30 trillion dollars in debt by 2024.
Trump will start paying it down. He knows how. He’s the only one.
And we’re about to lose that chance to a selfish blustering egotistical fool. And no, that isn’t Trump.
Yeah, with the new Cruz Core Math System, Cruz will have eleventy begillion delegates and the Trumpanzees will all cry, because they’re not TRUE conservatives like Neil Bush.
1000% correct.
LOL. I’m onto you.
I ask this because in nationwide polls, he did not achieve 40% until Apr 9th 2012. That was with the establishment coalescing behind him.
My point is that if the candidate is not acceptable to the establishment, re: status quo, then we will always be headed for a brokered convention wherein an "acceptable" candidate will prevail.
yep.
I saw an article about Kasich pulling in second in NY and MD. I don’t know who that cuts into. I also saw another article about Kasich polling good in SF bay area, and a lot of ads being planned.
I post a lot about Kasich, mostly because he is delusional or really in part of a plan.
“calling for a better brand of politics” Well we know that’s something Paul Ryan can’t deliver on.
E X A C T L Y !
That’s how I see it too.
If it goes to a floor fight, it’s open season.
Any entity can hatch a plan.
Ladies and gentlemen, Cruz Core Math.
I was under the assumption that the delegates were the representatives of the people. I didn’t know that was changeable....I thought a pledge was a pledge.
I agree though - Cruz is definitely the professional politician.
“Trump will make a deal with Rubio”
Sounds right to me. A Trump/Rubio ticket would be better than Cruz/Rubio here in Florida. I don’t think that Cruz can win Florida no matter who is on his ticket. Ted has no pull in Tampa Bay and he will get crushed in Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties, where all the votes are.
Although Rubio has lost stature here, he is still a native son and would level the playing field in Dade. Trump is already strong in FL, his second home.
Could be GOP best ticket to win Florida and no matter what other states are talked about, if you don’t win Florida, you don’t win.
Cruz was on Hannity radio Monday night and said he will not drop out even if he cant get to 1237. Hannity pushed him on it saying “you have said Kasich should drop out”. And Lyin Ted replied, “If Donald is the nominee, Hillary wins”. So it is all about #nevertrump...nothing else
I’m not familiar with the 112 delegate rules committee, but I don’t want Ted’s little grubby fingers on anything at the convention.
Too bad the delegates go to the highest bidder. Mark Levin is very excited about that because it means his boy Cruz is going to help Kasich get the nomination. He doesn’t think that’s what will happen, be we all know that’s what will happn.
With respect and sympathize with your sentiment— we would go to runoffs on each of the states...
But that is not the rules here.
Trump has: 743
Cruz has his own: 517
Cruz has his own: 517
If he gets all of Kasich and Rubio, then Kasich’s: 143
Plus Rubio’s: 172
Cruz total: 832
Let’s say Trump takes a larger share of those totals.
+ 65% Kasich’s: 143 x .65 = 93
+ 60% Rubio’s: 60% x 172 = 103
Cruz total: 517 + 93 + 103 = 713
Trump Total: (if the remainder) 743+50 +69 = 862
Another iteration:
Let’s say Cruz takes a larger share of those totals.
+ 65% Kasich’s: 143 x 85% = 121
+ 60% Rubio’s: 85% x 172 = 146
Cruz total: 517 + 121 + 146 = 784
Trump Total: (if the remainder) 743 + 22 + 26 = 791
Looks like Cruz will need to take at least 87% of the released delegates if they split the remaining state delegates.
Explain Cruz’s meeting with Jeb and Neal Bush, Rubio, and Kasich. That was simply them all explaining to him they weren’t on his side.
Nice try.
?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.